Cost-effectiveness of regorafenib for hepatocellular carcinoma after failure of sorafenib / 中国药房

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of regorafenib in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma after failure of sorafenib from the perspective of Chinese health system. METHODS Based on a phase Ⅲ trial（RESORCE）， the partition survival model （PSM） and Markov model were constructed. The cycle was set as four weeks， the duration of the study lasted for lifetime， the annual discount rate was 5%. Drug cost data was obtained from yaozhi.com， other cost data were obtained from Anhui Provincial Medical Insurance Bureau and related literature， and utility values were obtained from literature. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio （ICER） was used as the evaluation index， and the value of willingness to pay （WTP） was three times of China’s gross domestic product （GDP） per capita in 2022； one-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were used to verify the robustness of the basic analysis results. RESULTS The incremental cost of regorafenib group versus placebo group in PSM and Markov model was 112 116.95 yuan and 96 617.19 yuan， respectively. The incremental effectiveness was 0.31 QALYs and 0.32 QALYs， respectively. The ICERs were 360 751.01 yuan/QALY and 301 114.45 yuan/QALY， which were both greater than the value of WTP； regorafenib was not cost-effective. Results of one-way sensitivity analysis showed that the utility of progression-free survival and progressive disease， the unit cost of regorafenib had the greatest influence on the results， but ICER was always greater than the WTP within the floating range of each parameter. Under the WTP of 3 times China’s per capita GDP in 2022， the probabilities of regorafenib with cost-effectiveness were 0.8% （PSM） and 11.4% （Markov）. CONCLUSIONS Under the WTP of 3 times the per capita GDP of China， regorafenib is not cost-effective in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma after failure of sorafenib treatment， compared with placebo.