Epidemic status and model analysis of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases attributed to renal insufficiency in elderly Chinese / 公共卫生与预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze the changing trend of disease burden attributable to renal insufficiency in cardiovascular disease (CVD) among the elderly in China from 1990 to 2019, and to forecast the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) in the next 10 years, so as to provide a reference basis for accurate prevention and control of CVD attributable to renal insufficiency in China. Methods Data were obtained from the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx) database to describe the current status of CVD prevalence attributable to renal insufficiency. The joinpoint model was used to estimate the annual percentage change and average annual percentage change to assess the temporal trend of CVD attributable to renal insufficiency in China. An autoregressive moving average model was created by R4.0.2 software to predict the disease burden of CVD attributable to renal insufficiency in China. Results Compared with 1990, CVD mortality and DALY rates attributed to renal insufficiency increased in the male elderly population and decreased in women. Mortality and DALY rates attributed to ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and peripheral arterial disease attributed to renal insufficiency showed an increasing trend, and mortality and DALY rates for cerebral hemorrhage decreased. There was an overall increasing trend in the attribution of CVD due to renal insufficiency. Conclusion The burden of diseases attributable to renal insufficiency in Chinese elderly with CVD is relatively high, and the impact on each disease is different, which requires the attention of relevant authorities.