Current status and trend analysis of breast cancer incidence and mortality in Wuhan / 公共卫生与预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To assess the prevalence of female breast cancer in the city using data from the Wuhan Disease and Cause of Death Surveillance System for the past 10 years to provide a reference for breast cancer prevention and control. Methods The incidence case data from 2013 to 2017 and death case data from 2010 to 2019 in all districts of Wuhan city were collected. The incidence and mortality and their age-standardized rates were calculated. The joinpoint linear regression model was used to analyze the average annual percentage change (AAPC) , and the Bayesian age-period-cohort model (BAPC) was used to predict the mortality and age-standardized mortality of breast cancer among women in Wuhan from 2020 to 2024. Results The incidence and age-standardized incidence were 56.56/100 000 and 45.37/100 000 in 2013, and 67.46/100 000 and 52.01/100 000 in 2017, respectively. The changes showed an upward trend, but the difference was not statistically significant (P>0.05). The mortality and age-standardized mortality were 9.80/100 000 and 8.07/100 000 in 2010, and 10.47/100 000 and 7.13/100 000 in 2019, respectively. Although the rough mortality increased, the age-standardization mortality declined significantly (AAPC=2.13%, P<0.05). BAPC prediction results show that the standardized mortality rate of female breast cancer in Wuhan will drop to 6.33/100 000 in 2024. The peak age of incidence was in the age groups of 45-74 years and the peak age of mortality was in the age group of 85 years or older. In addition , the morbidity and mortality rates in the central urban area were higher than those in the distant urban area , and the difference decreased year by year. The BAPC predicted that the age-standardized mortality for breast cancer in women in Wuhan will decrease to 6.33 per 100 000 in 2024. Conclusion Breast cancer incidence and mortality rates in females in Wuhan show an increasing trend . However , the age-standardized mortality is on a significant downward trend due to the delay in the age of death. The elderly and those in central urban areas are the high-risk groups, so we should pay more attention to these groups , analyze the related risk factors , and take targeted prevention and control measures.