Prediction of the disease burden of genital herpes in China in 1990 -2019 / 公共卫生与预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze the current situation and trend of genital herpes disease burden in China from 1990 to 2019, and to provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and treatment of genital herpes. Methods Using the 2019 Global Burden of Disease database, the trend of the burden of genital herpes disease in China from 1990 to 2019 was analyzed using the Joinpoint software based on the indicators of incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALY) and disability-lost life years. The ARIMA time series model was established to predict the development trend of genital herpes diseases in China from 2020 to 2024. Results From 1990 to 2019, the incidence of genital herpes in China had a downward trend. The incidence of the disease was mainly concentrated in the age group of 15-49 years old, and the DALY rate in this age group showed a significant upward trend (AAPC=0.73, P < 0.001). The age group of 50-69 years old showed a significant upward trend (AAPC=0.09, P < 0.05). The DALY rate of genital herpes in China showed an increasing trend from 1990 to 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, the overall disease burden of women in China was higher than that of men. The ARIMA model predicted that the incidence of genital herpes and DALY rate in China would continue to increase from 2020 to 2024. Conclusion The disease burden of genital herpes in China is still on the rise. It is necessary to strengthen the safe sexual behavior education and actively carry out health education among young and middle-aged people.