Development of mortality prediction model for critically ill patients based on multidimensional and dynamic clinical characteristics / 中华危重病急救医学

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE@#To develop a mortality prediction model for critically ill patients based on multidimensional and dynamic clinical data collected by the hospital information system (HIS) using random forest algorithm, and to compare the prediction efficiency of the model with acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) model.@*METHODS@#The clinical data of 10 925 critically ill patients aged over 14 years old admitted to the Third Xiangya Hospital of Central South University from January 2014 to June 2020 were extracted from the HIS system, and APACHE II scores of the critically ill patients were extracted. Expected mortality of patients was calculated according to the death risk calculation formula of APACHE II scoring system. A total of 689 samples with APACHE II score records were used as the test set, and the other 10 236 samples were used to establish the random forest model, of which 10% (n = 1 024) were randomly selected as the validation set and 90% (n = 9 212) were selected as the training set. According to the time series of 3 days before the end of critical illness, the clinical characteristics of patients such as general information, vital signs data, biochemical test results and intravenous drug doses were selected to develope a random forest model for predicting the mortality of critically ill patients. Using the APACHE II model as a reference, receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was drawn, and the discrimination performance of the model was evaluated through the area under the ROC curve (AUROC). According to the precision and recall, Precision-Recall curve (PR curve) was drawn, and the calibration performance of the model was evaluated through the area under the PR curve (AUPRC). Calibration curve was drawn, and the consistency between the predicted event occurrence probability of the model and the actual occurrence probability was evaluated through the calibration index Brier score.@*RESULTS@#Among the 10 925 patients, there were 7 797 males (71.4%) and 3 128 females (28.6%). The average age was (58.9±16.3) years old. The median length of hospital stay was 12 (7, 20) days. Most patients (n = 8 538, 78.2%) were admitted to intensive care unit (ICU), and the median length of ICU stay was 66 (13, 151) hours. The hospitalized mortality was 19.0% (2 077/10 925). Compared with the survival group (n = 8 848), the patients in the death group (n = 2 077) were older (years old 60.1±16.5 vs. 58.5±16.4, P < 0.01), the ratio of ICU admission was higher [82.8% (1 719/2 077) vs. 77.1% (6 819/8 848), P < 0.01], and the proportion of patients with hypertension, diabetes and stroke history was also higher [44.7% (928/2 077) vs. 36.3% (3 212/8 848), 20.0% (415/2 077) vs. 16.9% (1 495/8 848), 15.5% (322/2 077) vs. 10.0% (885/8 848), all P < 0.01]. In the test set data, the prediction value of random forest model for the risk of death during hospitalization of critically ill patients was greater than that of APACHE II model, which showed by that the AUROC and AUPRC of random forest model were higher than those of APACHE II model [AUROC 0.856 (95% confidence interval was 0.812-0.896) vs. 0.783 (95% confidence interval was 0.737-0.826), AUPRC 0.650 (95% confidence interval was 0.604-0.762) vs. 0.524 (95% confidence interval was 0.439-0.609)], and Brier score was lower than that of APACHE II model [0.104 (95% confidence interval was 0.085-0.113) vs. 0.124 (95% confidence interval was 0.107-0.141)].@*CONCLUSIONS@#The random forest model based on multidimensional dynamic characteristics has great application value in predicting hospital mortality risk for critically ill patients, and it is superior to the traditional APACHE II scoring system.