Prognostic value of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in patients with severe heat stroke / 中华急诊医学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the value of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in predicting the prognosis of patients with severe heat stroke.Methods:A retrospective analysis was performed on patients with severe heat stroke hospitalized in the ICU of Changzhou No. 2 People's Hospital from June 2013 to September 2019. The patients were divided into the survival group and death group according to their 30-day survival. The basic data of the patients were recorded. Blood routine, liver and kidney function parameters, troponin, brain natriuretic peptide, myocardial enzyme spectrum, blood coagulation routine, and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE)Ⅱ were analyzed within 24 h after admission. Multivariate COX regression analysis was used to screen the risk factors of 30-day death. Spearman correlation test was used to analyze the correlation between NLR and APACHEII score. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn to assess the predictive value of NLR for the 30-day death in patients with severe heat stroke. Kaplan-Meier survival curve was used to analyze 30-day cumulative survival of high-risk patients.Results:A total of 115 patients with severe heat stroke were included in this study, and they were divided into the survival group ( n=92) and the death group ( n=23) according to the prognosis. NLR in the death group was significantly higher than that in the survival group ( P<0.05). Multivariate COX regression analysis showed that NLR was an independent risk factor for death after adjusting confounders ( HR=1.091, 95% CI 1.049-1.136, P<0.001). Spearman correlation test showed a correlation between NLR and APACHEII score ( r=0.655, P<0.001). ROC curve analysis showed that NLR had the greatest predictive value for 30-day death, with an area under ROC curve (AUC) of 0.787, a sensitivity of 82.6%, a specificity of 67.4%, and the cut-off value of 7.35. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis curve shows that patients in the below NLR cut-off value group had a significantly higher 30-day survival rate than those in the above NLR cut-off value group ( P<0.001). Conclusions:The increased NLR is a high risk factor for death in patients with severe heat stroke, and helps predict the prognosis of patients with severe heat stroke.