Change point analysis of normal distribution based on the likelihood ratio principle and its application in the number of outpatients analysis / 中华地方病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:The authors introduced the change point analysis of normal distribution based on the likelihood ratio principle, analyzed the number of outpatients in a hospital of Luohu District, Shenzhen, to provide scientific basis for rational allocation of health resources.Methods:The authors collected totally 636 number of outpatients' data from 8 00 to 12 00 a.m. at 48 time windows at 5 minutes intervals in a hospital of Luohu District, Shenzhen, and analyzed it with single change point analysis of simultaneous change of mean and variance, and discussed when the change point occurred.Results:The average number of outpatient was 13.250 0 for every time window, the change point occurred at 8 50, the probability was 0.000 025, the average number of outpatient per 5 minutes from 8 00 to 8 50 was 7.000 0, the average number of outpatient per 5 minutes from 8 50 to 12 00 was 14.897 4, and the ratio of number of outpatients before and after the change point occurred was 1∶2.Conclusion:In the case of no need to determine the base period or compare the data, the change point analysis of normal distribution based on the principle of likelihood ratio provides a new way of statistical analysis and statistical monitoring for the rational allocation of health resources based on the number of patients.