Risk assessment for patients with severe acute pancreatitis complicated by clinically significant bleeding / 中华肝胆外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To analyze the risk factors of clinically significant bleeding in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).Methods:The clinical data of SAP patients who were managed at Changhai Hospital affiliated to Naval Medical University from January 1, 2014 to October 31, 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Twenty-nine SAP patients with clinically significant bleeding were classified to form the bleeding group. There were 23 males and 6 females, aged (56.25±14.01) years old. Another 116 SAP patients with similar general data but with no clinically significant bleeding during the same hospitalization period were included to form the non-bleeding group based on a ratio of 1∶4. There were 94 males and 22 females, aged (56.14±13.96) years old in this non-bleeding group. The general data, modified CT severity index (MCTSI), bedside index for severity of acute pancreatitis (BISAP) and other clinical data of the two groups were collected to determine the risk factors of bleeding in SAP patients.Results:Of the 29 patients with bleeding, 6 had gastrointestinal bleeding, 14 had intra-abdominal bleeding, and 9 had mixed bleeding sites, 15 were cured and discharged, and 14 died. All the 29 SAP patients with bleeding received treatment using drugs. In addition, 8 patients underwent successful hemostasis using digital subtraction angiography, 3 underwent successful endoscopic hemostasis, 2 underwent successful surgical hemostasis, and 2 underwent successful conservative drug hemostasis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that SAP patients with higher MCTSI ( OR=1.824, 95% CI 1.187-2.802), longer prothrombin time (PT) ( OR=3.431, 95% CI 1.470-8.007) and higher BISAP ( OR=2.286, 95% CI 1.054-4.957) had an increased risk of bleeding (all P<0.05). Conclusion:The prognosis of SAP patients was compromised with bleeding. High MCTSI, prolonged PT, and high BISAP were independent risk factors for bleeding in SAP patients.