Evaluation of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio and the end-stage liver disease-sodium model in predicting short-term prognosis of patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure / 中华全科医师杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To evaluate neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio(NLR) and the model for end-stage liver disease-sodium(MELD-Na)score in predicting short-term prognosis of patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure(HBV-ACLF).Methods:A total of 234 consecutive HBV-ACLF patients(194 males and 40 females, aged 23-85 years)admitted to Hangzhou Xixi Hospital from January 2019 to December 2021 were enrolled. According to the 12-week clinical outcomes, patients were divided into good prognosis group( n=141)and poor prognosis group( n=93). Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression were performed to identify independent risk factors for poor prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients. Receiver operating characteristics(ROC)curve was applied to evaluate the accuracy of risk factors in predicting short-term prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients. Results:The age [(48.7±11.9) vs. (52.5±9.9) years old, t=-2.59, P=0.011], proportion of males [78.0%(110/141) vs. 90.3%(84/93), χ2=5.99, P=0.014], total bilirubin[202.9(141.2, 287.6) vs. 320.0(224.4, 400.0) μmol/L, Z=-5.14, P<0.001], creatinine [71.0(59.0, 78.0) vs. 81.0(64.0, 111.0)μmol/L, Z=-3.98, P<0.001], international normalized ratio[1.66(1.52, 1.86) vs. 1.91(1.66, 2.27), Z=-5.46, P<0.001], leukocyte count[5.16(3.99, 6.95)×10 9/L vs. 6.57(4.83, 8.30)×10 9/L, Z=-4.14, P=0.001], NLR[2.77(2.02, 3.55) vs. 5.48(3.44, 8.53), Z=-8.48, P<0.001], MELD score[22.0(20.0, 24.0) vs. 26.0(24.0, 29.0), Z=-9.22, P<0.001], MELD-Na score[22.8(20.0, 25.6) vs. 29.0(25.0, 36.0), Z=-9.16, P<0.001], liver cirrhosis[77.3%(109/141) vs. 88.2%(82/93), χ2=4.41, P=0.036], hepatorenal syndrome[4/141(2.8%) vs. 12/93(12.9%), χ2=8.91, P=0.003] and the proportion of artificial liver treatment[21/141(14.9%) vs. 24/93(25.8%), χ2=4.30, P=0.038] were significantly elevated in poor prognosis group compared with survival group. Logistic regression analysis showed that NLR( OR=3.76, 95 %CI 2.10-6.74, P<0.001)and MELD-Na score( OR=2.24, 95 %CI 1.17-4.29, P=0.015) were independent risk factors for poor short-term prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients. The area under the ROC curve(AUC)of NLR, and MELD-Na for the short-term prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients was 0.792 and 0.822, respectively. The AUC of the combination of NLR with MELD-Na was 0.858, which was significantly higher than that of NLR( Z=-3.04, P=0.001) or MELD-Na score( Z=-2.16, P=0.031)alone. Based on the cut-off value of the combined model, patients were classified into high combined model score (≥0.04) group and low combined model score (<0.04) group, the survival rate of the high group was significantly higher than that of the low group( χ2=67.47, P<0.001). Conclusions:NLR and MELD-Na score are independent risk factors of the short-term prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients. The combination of NLR and MELD-Na score will be beneficial to predict the short-term prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients.