Construction and validation of a prognostic nomogram model of programmed death receptor 1 inhibitors in treatment of hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma / 肿瘤研究与临床

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the factors influencing the prognosis of hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma treated with programmed death receptor 1 (PD-1) inhibitors, and to construct a prognostic nomogram model for these patients and evaluate its clinical significances.Methods:The clinical data of 121 patients with hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma treated with PD-1 inhibitors at the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinxiang Medical College from July 2018 to July 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. Follow-up was performed from the beginning of PD-1 inhibitor use, and the Kaplan-Meier method was used to analyze the overall survival of patients. The variables screened by the univariate Cox proportional hazards model analysis and variables clinically believed to be related to the prognosis were included in the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model for overall survival, and the stepwise regression method was used to screen the independent factors influencing overall survival. Based on the independent influencing factors of overall survival, R 3.5.1 software was used to construct a prognostic nomogram model for overall survival of hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma treated with PD-1 inhibitors. Calibration curve was used to the consistency of model prediction and practice. The Harrell consistency index and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (with imaging diagnosis as the gold standard) were used to analyze the efficacy of model in predicting the 1-year and 2-year overall survival rates.Results:The median follow-up time of 121 patients was 12.40 months, and the median overall survival time was 14.30 months, with overall survival rates of 82.60% and 62.30% at 6 and 12 months. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that albumin (ALB) ( HR = 0.946, 95% CI 0.901-0.992), international normalized ratio (INR) ( HR = 32.034, 95% CI 5.046-203.362), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) ( HR = 1.010, 95% CI 1.007-1.012) were independent influencing factors for overall survival of patients. According to the three factors, a prognostic nomogram model for hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma treated with PD-1 inhibitors was constructed. The slope of the calibration curve of the model predicting 1-year and 2-year overall survival rates was close to 1. The Harrell consistency index of the nomogram model was 0.809 (95% CI 0.760-0.858). ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram model predicting 1-year and 2-year overall survival rates of patients was 0.794 (95% CI 0.744-0.887, P < 0.001) and 0.791 (95% CI 0.708-0.860, P = 0.002). Conclusions:ALB, INR and AST are the influencing factors of prognosis of hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with PD-1 inhibitors, and the nomogram model constructed based on prognostic influencing factors has a good effect on predicting the 1-year and 2-year overall survival rates of patients, which can be used to screen the population suitable for immunotherapy and is conducive to the clinical formulation of individualized and precise treatment plans.