Grey model forecasting analysis of licensed pharmacist staffing in retail pharmacies in western China / 中国药房

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE To predict the development trends of licensed pharmacist staffing in retail pharmacies within the western China and provide reference for the formulation of policies related to licensed pharmacists. METHODS Based on the data of retail pharmacies and licensed pharmacists in the western China from 2016 to 2022， a grey model was constructed to analyze and predict the number development trends of retail pharmacies and licensed pharmacists in the western China from 2023 to 2026. RESULTS Currently， the 1∶1 staffing requirement for licensed pharmacists and retail pharmacies had been met in Shaanxi， Guangxi and Gansu. Based on current trends， Inner Mongolia， Chongqing， Yunnan， and Qinghai were expected to meet the 1∶1 staffing requirement for licensed pharmacists and retail pharmacies between 2023 and 2026. Sichuan and Xinjiang were also expected to meet this requirement in the future. However， there was still a significant gap in Guizhou， Xizang， and Ningxia towards achieving the above goals. CONCLUSIONS There is still a discrepancy between the deployment of licensed pharmacists and the national requirements in certain western provinces. Local authorities should formulate relevant policies according to local circumstances. Regions that have already met or will soon achieve the staffing requirement for licensed pharmacists should continue to enhance the quantity and quality of their licensed pharmacist workforce. In areas where meet this criterion in the short term is not feasible， it is necessary to strengthen the development of the licensed pharmacist workforce， and control the number of new retail pharmacies.