Value of fibrosis-4 combined with prognostic nutritional index in predicting recurrence and survival time after radiofrequency ablation for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma / 临床肝胆病杂志

ABSTRACT

‍ ObjectiveTo investigate the value of preoperative fibrosis 4 score （FIB-4） combined with prognostic nutritional index （PNI） in predicting recurrence after radiofrequency ablation （RFA） for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma （HCC）. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 365 patients with the initial diagnosis of early-stage HCC who underwent RFA at Tianjin Third Central Hospital from January 2013 to December 2017， and a statistical analysis was performed for recurrence and survival. The receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve was plotted for FIB-4 and PNI with postoperative tumor recurrence as the positive event， and their optimal cut-off values were selected. FIB-4 and PNI were graded and combined as FIB-4-PNI score， based on which the patients were divided into 0-point group with 207 patients， 1-point group with 93 patients， and 2-point group with 65 patients. The chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and the log-rank test were used to compare the recurrence-free survival （RFS） and overall survival （OS） between groups， and the Cox regression model was used to investigate the influencing factors for RFS and OS. ResultsThe 1-， 3-， and 5-year RFS rates of all patients were 79.2%， 49.8%， and 34.3%， respectively， with a median RFS of 35 months， while the 1-， 3-， and 5-year OS rates of all patients were 98.9%， 86.9%， and 77.3%， respectively. There were significant differences in cumulative RFS and OS rates between the patients with different levels of FIB-4， PNI， and FIB-4-PNI （RFS rate： χ2=17.890， 29.826， and 32.397， all P<0.001； OS rate： χ2=16.896， 21.070， and 26.121， all P<0.001）. The multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that history of diabetes （hazard ratio ［HR］=1.418， 95% confidence interval ［CI］： 1.046‍ ‍—‍ ‍1.922， P=0.024）， two tumors （HR=1.516， 95%CI： 1.094‍ ‍—‍ ‍2.101， P=0.012）， three tumors （HR=2.146， 95%CI： 1.278‍ ‍—‍ ‍3.604， P=0.004）， FIB-4-PNI 1 point （HR=1.875， 95%CI： 1.385‍ ‍—‍ ‍2.539， P<0.001）， and FIB-4-PNI 2 points （HR=2.35， 95%CI： 1.706‍ ‍—‍ ‍3.236， P<0.001） were independent risk factors for RFS， while two tumors （HR=1.732， 95%CI： 1.005‍ ‍—‍ ‍2.983， P=0.048）， three tumors （HR=3.511， 95%CI： 1.658‍ ‍—‍ ‍7.433， P=0.001）， FIB-4-PNI 1 point （HR=2.094， 95%CI： 1.230‍ ‍—‍ ‍3.565， P=0.006）， and FIB-4-PNI 2 points （HR=3.908， 95%CI： 2.306‍ ‍—‍ ‍6.624， P<0.001） were independent risk factors for OS. ConclusionFIB-4-PNI score can be used as an independent predictive factor for recurrence and overall survival time after RFA for early-stage HCC， and it can be combined with tumor features to predict postoperative recurrence and survival.