Of precarity and conspiracy: Introducing a socio-functional model of conspiracy beliefs.

Conspiracy Beliefs (CB) are a key vector of violent extremism, radicalism and unconventional political events. So far, social-psychological research has extensively documented how cognitive, emotional and intergroup factors can promote CB. Evidence also suggests that adherence to CB moves along social class lines: low-income and low-education are among the most robust predictors of CB. Yet, the potential role of precarity-the subjective experience of permanent insecurity stemming from objective material strain-in shaping CB remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we propose for the first time a socio-functional model of CB. We test the hypothesis that precarity could foster increased CB because it undermines trust in government and the broader political 'elites'. Data from the World Value Survey (n = 21,650; Study 1, electoral CB) and from representative samples from polls conducted in France (n = 1760, Study 2a, conspiracy mentality) and Italy (n = 2196, Study 2b, COVID-19 CB), corroborate a mediation model whereby precarity is directly and indirectly associated with lower trust in authorities and higher CB. In addition, these links are robust to adjustment on income, self-reported SES and education. Considering precarity allows for a truly social-psychological understanding of CB as the by-product of structural issues (e.g. growing inequalities). Results from our socio-functional model suggest that implementing solutions at the socio-economic level could prove efficient in fighting CB.

Vulnerability to COVID-19, prejudice, and support for economic restrictions towards countries with high level of contamination

Recent research has extensively investigated how the current COVID-19 pandemic can affect intergroup relations. Much less is known about the impact of COVID-19 on economic and trade decisions. Could the intergroup effects of this pandemic shape support for international economic policies? The aim of this study was to examine the support for restrictive economic policies towards countries with very high levels of COVID-19 contamination (China and Italy) during the first lockdown period (March - April 2020). The survey was conducted in Romania (N = 669) and included measures of COVID-19 vulnerability, prejudice, and support for economic restrictive policy (e.g., to reduce international trade;to set higher taxes). Results showed that higher support for restrictive policies toward China was associated with greater perceived vulnerability to COVID-19 and this link was partially mediated by prejudice toward China. In contrast, support for economic restrictive policies toward Italy was greater when perceived vulnerability to COVID-19 was high, but this relationship between variables was not explained by negative attitudes towards Italy. Practical and theoretical implications are discussed. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved)

Using absolutist word frequency from online searches to measure population mental health dynamics.

The assessment of population mental health relies on survey data from representative samples, which come with considerable costs. Drawing on research which established that absolutist words (e.g. never) are semantic markers for depression, we propose a new measure of population mental health based on the frequency of absolutist words in online search data (absolute thinking index; ATI). Our aims were to first validate the ATI, and to use it to model public mental health dynamics in France and the UK during the current COVID-19 pandemic. To do so, we extracted time series for a validated dictionary of 19 absolutist words, from which the ATI was computed (weekly averages, 2019-2020, n = 208) using Google Trends. We then tested the relationship between ATI and longitudinal survey data of population mental health in the UK (n = 36,520) and France (n = 32,000). After assessing the relationship between ATI and survey measures of depression and anxiety in both populations, and dynamic similarities between ATI and survey measures (France), we tested the ATI's construct validity by showing how it was affected by the pandemic and how it can be predicted by COVID-19-related indicators. A final step consisted in replicating ATI's construct validity tests in Japan, thereby providing evidence for the ATI's cross-cultural generalizability. ATI was linked with survey depression scores in the UK, r = 0.68, 95%CI[0.34,0.86], ß = 0.23, 95%CI[0.09,0.37] in France and displayed similar trends. We finally assessed the pandemic's impact on ATI using Bayesian structural time-series models. These revealed that the pandemic increased ATI by 3.2%, 95%CI[2.1,4.2] in France and 3.7%, 95%CI[2.9,4.4] in the UK. Mixed-effects models showed that ATI was related to COVID-19 new deaths in both countries ß = 0.14, 95%CI[0.14,0.21]. These patterns were replicated in Japan, with a pandemic impact of 4.9%, 95%CI[3.1,6.7] and an influence of COVID-19 death of ß = 0.90, 95%CI[0.36,1.44]. Our results demonstrate the validity of the ATI as a measure of population mental health (depression) in France, the UK and to some extent in Japan. We propose that researchers use it as cost-effective public mental health "thermometer" for applied and research purposes.

National identification, a social cure for COVID-19? Evidence from 67 countries.

BACKGROUND: Social distancing and mass quarantines were implemented worldwide in response to the current COVID-19 pandemic. Prior research has shown that such measures bear negative consequences for population mental health and well-being. Conversely, a growing body of evidence suggests that feeling positively identified with a group is associated with physical and mental health benefits. AIMS: This study tested whether national identification could promote wellbeing and physical health during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHOD: We used survey data conducted among 67 countries (N = 46,450). RESULTS: Mixed-model analyses revealed that national identity was associated with wellbeing - despite adjustment on social belonging, COVID-19 perceived risk, exposure and ideology. This effect did not extend to physical health. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that the mere feeling of belonging to a national group may have mental health benefits. We discuss the implications of our findings within the social cure framework and their relevance for population mental health under COVID-19.