Statistical Challenges when Analyzing SARS-CoV-2 RNA Measurements Below the Assay Limit of Quantification in COVID-19 Clinical Trials (preprint)

Most clinical trials evaluating COVID-19 therapeutics include assessments of antiviral activity. In recently completed outpatient trials, changes in nasal SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels from baseline were commonly assessed using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) or mixed models for repeated measures (MMRM) with single-imputation for results below assay lower limits of quantification (LLoQ). Analyzing changes in viral RNA levels with singly-imputed values can lead to biased estimates of treatment effects. In this paper, using an illustrative example from the ACTIV-2 trial, we highlight potential pitfalls of imputation when using ANCOVA or MMRM methods, and illustrate how these methods can be used when considering values

Duration of viral infectiousness and correlation with symptoms and diagnostic testing in non-hospitalized adults during acute SARS-CoV-2 infection: A longitudinal cohort study (preprint)

Background: Guidelines for SARS-CoV-2 have relied on limited data on duration of viral infectiousness and correlation with COVID-19 symptoms and diagnostic testing. Methods: We enrolled ambulatory adults with acute SARS-CoV-2 infection and performed serial measurements of COVID-19 symptoms, nasal swab viral RNA, nucleocapsid (N) and spike (S) antigens, and replication-competent SARS-CoV-2 by culture. We determined average time from symptom onset to a first negative test result and estimated risk of infectiousness, as defined by a positive viral culture. Results: Among 95 adults, median [interquartile range] time from symptom onset to first negative test result was 9 [5] days, 13 [6] days, 11 [4] days, and >19 days for S antigen, N antigen, viral culture growth, and viral RNA by RT-PCR, respectively. Beyond two weeks, viral cultures and N antigen titers were rarely positive, while viral RNA remained detectable among half (26/51) of participants tested 21-30 days after symptom onset. Between 6-10 days from symptom onset, N antigen was strongly associated with viral culture positivity (relative risk=7.61, 95% CI: 3.01-19.2), whereas neither viral RNA nor symptoms were associated with culture positivity. During the 14 days following symptom onset, presence of N antigen (adjusted relative risk=7.66, 95% CI: 3.96-14.82), remained strongly associated with viral culture positivity, regardless of COVID-19 symptoms. Conclusions: Most adults have replication-competent SARS-CoV-2 for 10-14 after symptom onset, and N antigen testing is a strong predictor of viral infectiousness. Within two weeks from symptom onset, N antigen testing, rather than absence of symptoms or viral RNA, should be used to safely discontinue isolation.

Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 VOC neutralization and novel mAb reveal protection against Omicron (preprint)

To evaluate SARS-CoV-2 variants we isolated SARS-CoV-2 temporally during the pandemic starting with first appearance of virus in the Western hemisphere near Seattle, WA, USA, and isolated each known major variant class, revealing the dynamics of emergence and complete take-over of all new cases by current Omicron variants. We assessed virus neutralization in a first-ever full comparison across variants and evaluated a novel monoclonal antibody (Mab). We found that convalescence greater than 5-months provides little-to-no protection against SARS-CoV-2 variants, vaccination enhances immunity against variants with the exception of Omicron BA.1, and paired testing of vaccine sera against ancestral virus compared to Omicron BA.1 shows that 3-dose vaccine regimen provides over 50-fold enhanced protection against Omicron BA.1 compared to a 2-dose regimen. We also reveal a novel Mab that effectively neutralizes Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 variants over clinically-approved Mabs. Our observations underscore the need for continued vaccination efforts, with innovation for vaccine and Mab improvement, for protection against variants of SARS-CoV-2. SummaryWe isolated SARS-CoV-2 temporally starting with emergence of virus in the Western hemisphere. Neutralization analyses across all variant lineages show that vaccine-boost regimen provides protection against Omicron BA.1. We reveal a Mab that protects against Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 variants.

Convergence of immune escape strategies highlights plasticity of SARS-CoV-2 spike (preprint)

The SARS-CoV-2 spike protein is the target of neutralizing antibodies and the immunogen used in all currently approved vaccines. The global spread of the virus has resulted in emergence of lineages which are of concern for the effectiveness of immunotherapies and vaccines based on the early Wuhan isolate. Here we describe two SARS-CoV-2 isolates with large deletions in the N-terminal domain (NTD) of the spike. Cryo-EM structural analysis showed that the deletions result in complete reshaping of the antigenic surface of the NTD supersite. The remodeling of the NTD affects binding of all tested NTD-specific antibodies in and outside of the NTD supersite for both spike variants. A unique escape mechanism with high antigenic impact observed in the {Delta}N135 variant was based on the loss of the Cys15-Cys136 disulfide due to the P9L-mediated shift of the signal peptide cleavage site and deletion of residues 136-144. Although the observed large loop and disulfide deletions are rare, similar modifications became independently established in several other lineages, highlighting the possibility of a general escape mechanism via the NTD supersite. The observed plasticity of the NTD foreshadows its broad potential for immune escape with the continued spread of SARS-CoV-2.

Rapid and Accurate Identification of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variants Using Droplet Digital PCR (RT-ddPCR) (preprint)

Background Mutations in the receptor binding domain of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein are associated with increased transmission or substantial reductions in vaccine efficacy, including in the recently described Omicron variant. The changing frequencies of these mutations combined with their differing susceptibility to available therapies have posed significant problems for clinicians and public health professionals. Objective To develop an assay capable of rapidly and accurately identifying variants including Omicron in clinical specimens to enable case tracking and/or selection of appropriate clinical treatment. Study Design Using three duplex RT-ddPCR reactions targeting four amino acids, we tested 419 positive clinical specimens from February to December 2021 during a period of rapidly shifting variant prevalences and compared genotyping results to genome sequences for each sample, determining the sensitivity and specificity of the assay for each variant. Results Mutation determinations for 99.7% of detected samples agree with NGS data for those samples, and are accurate despite wide variation in RNA concentration and potential confounding factors like transport medium, presence of additional respiratory viruses, and additional mutations in primer and probe sequences. The assay accurately identified the first 15 Omicron variants in our laboratory including the first Omicron in Washington State and discriminated against S-gene dropout Delta specimen. Conclusion We describe an accurate, precise, and specific RT-ddPCR assay for variant detection that remains robust despite being designed prior the emergence of Delta and Omicron variants. The assay can quickly identify mutations in current and past SARS-CoV-2 variants, and can be adapted to future mutations.

Monoclonal antibody treatment drives rapid culture conversion in SARS-CoV-2 infection (preprint)

Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) are the treatment of choice for high-risk ambulatory persons with mild to moderate COVID-19. We studied viral culture dynamics post-treatment in a subset of participants receiving the mAb bamlanivimab in the ACTIV-2 trial. Viral load by qPCR and viral culture were performed from anterior nasal swabs collected on study days 0 (day of treatment), 1, 2, 3, and 7. Treatment with mAb resulted in rapid clearance of culturable virus in participants without treatment-emergent resistance. One day after treatment, 0 of 28 (0%) participants receiving mAb and 16 of 39 (41%) receiving placebo still had culturable virus (p <0.0001); nasal viral loads were only modestly lower in the mAb-treated group at days 2 and 3. Recrudescence of culturable virus was detected in three participants with emerging mAb resistance and viral load rebound. The rapid reduction in shedding of viable SARS-CoV-2 after mAb treatment highlights the potential role of mAbs in preventing disease transmission.

Delta breakthrough infections elicit potent, broad and durable neutralizing antibody responses (preprint)

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant is currently responsible for most infections worldwide, including among vaccinated individuals. Although these latter infections lead to milder COVID-19 disease relative to unvaccinated subjects, the specificity and durability of antibody responses elicited by Delta breakthrough cases remain unknown. Here, we demonstrate that breakthrough infections induce serum binding and neutralizing antibody responses that are markedly more potent, durable and resilient to spike mutations observed in variants than those observed in subjects who were infected only or received only two doses of vaccine. We show that Delta breakthrough cases, subjects who were vaccinated after infection and individuals vaccinated three times (without infection) have serum neutralizing activity of comparable magnitude and breadth, indicating that multiple types of exposure or increased number of exposures to SARS-CoV-2 antigen(s) enhance antibody responses. Neutralization of SARS-CoV, however, was moderate, underscoring the importance of developing vaccines eliciting broad sarbecovirus immunity for pandemic preparedness.

Trajectory of viral load in a prospective population-based cohort with incident SARS-CoV-2 G614 infection (preprint)

ImportanceSARS-CoV-2 viral trajectory has not been well-characterized in documented incident infections. These data will inform SARS-CoV-2 natural history, transmission dynamics, prevention practices, and therapeutic development. ObjectiveTo prospectively characterize early SARS-CoV-2 viral shedding in persons with incident infection. DesignProspective cohort study. SettingSecondary data analysis from a multicenter study in the U.S. ParticipantsThe samples derived from a randomized controlled trial of 829 community-based asymptomatic participants recently exposed (<96 hours) to persons with SARS-CoV-2. Participants collected daily mid-turbinate swabs for SARS-CoV-2 detection by polymerase-chain-reaction and symptom diaries for 14-days. Persons with negative swab for SARS-CoV-2 at baseline who developed infection during the study were included in the analysis. ExposureLaboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Main outcomes and measuresThe observed SARS-CoV-2 viral shedding characteristics were summarized and shedding trajectories were examined using a piece-wise linear mixed-effects modeling. Whole viral genome sequencing was performed on samples with cycle threshold (Ct)<34. ResultsNinety-seven persons (57% women, median age 37-years) developed incident infections during 14-days of follow-up. Two-hundred fifteen sequenced samples were assigned to 15 lineages that belonged to the G614 variant. Forty-two (43%), 18(19%), and 31(32%) participants had viral shedding for 1 day, 2-6 days, and [≥]7 days, with median peak viral load Ct of 38.5, 36.7, and 18.3, respectively. Six (6%) participants had 1-6 days of observed viral shedding with censored duration. The peak average viral load was observed on day 3 of viral shedding. The average Ct value was lower, indicating higher viral load, in persons reporting COVID-19 symptoms than asymptomatic. Using the statistical model, the median time from shedding onset to peak viral load was 1.4 days followed by a median of 9.7 days before clearance. Conclusions and RelevanceIncident SARS-CoV-2 G614 infection resulted in a rapid viral load peak followed by slower decay and positive correlation between peak viral load and shedding duration; duration of shedding was heterogeneous. This longitudinal evaluation of the SARS-CoV-2 G614 variant with frequent molecular testing may serve as a reference for comparing emergent viral lineages to inform clinical trial designs and public health strategies to contain the spread of the virus. KEY POINTSO_ST_ABSQuestionC_ST_ABSWhat are the early SARS-CoV-2 G614 viral shedding characteristics in persons with incident infection? FindingsIn this prospective cohort of 97 community-based participants who collected daily mid-turbinate swabs for SARS-CoV-2 detection after recent exposure to SARS-CoV-2, viral trajectory was characterized by a rapid peak followed by slower decay. Peak viral load correlated positively with symptoms. The duration of shedding was heterogeneous. MeaningA detailed description of the SARS-CoV-2 G614 viral shedding trajectory serves as baseline for comparison to new viral variants of concern and inform models for the planning of clinical trials and transmission dynamics to end this pandemic.

Towards Discovering SARS-CoV-2 Variants of High Consequence Based on Both Surveillance and Electronically Captured Health Data: First Year Experience in Washington State (January 2020-2021) (preprint)

Background: SARS-CoV-2 is continuously evolving with the emergence of variants of interest (VOI) or with variants of concern (VOC). While Variants of High Consequence (VOHC) are well defined, no such variants have been formally documented. Here we propose an integrated strategy and application towards discovering VOHC. Methods: We utilized 7,137 viral sequences collected from COVID-19 cases in Washington State from January 19, 2020 to January 31, 2021, to identify genome-wide viral single nucleotide variants (SNVs). Utilizing a non-parametric regression model, we selected a subset of SNVs that had significant and substantial expansions over the collection period. Further, using unsupervised learning, we identified multiple SNVs forming haplotypes. To evaluate their clinical relevance, we assembled a discovery cohort of COVID-19 cases (388 inpatients and 295 outpatients) to identify SNVs and haplotypes associated with hospitalization status, a proxy for disease severity. A logistic regression model was used to assess associations of SNVs with hospitalization status in the discovery cohort. These results were validated on an independent cohort of 964 genome sequences derived from COVID-19 cases in Washington State from June 1, 2020 to March 31, 2021. Finding: The analysis of the 7,137 sequences led to identification of 107 SNVs that were statistically significant (false positive error rate q-value <0.01) and substantial expansions (maximum value of locally averaged proportions, Pmax>0.10). Forty-one SNVs were considered urgent, because their SNV proportions persisted or expanded above 10% in January 2021, the last month of the current investigation period. Correlating with clinical data, eight SNVs were found to significantly associate with inpatient status (p-values<0.001). By their synchronized dynamics, two SNVs were haplotyped and the mutant haplotype (c15933t-g16968t) was observed among patients in the discovery cohort (Fisher’s exact p=1.53*10-10), and this association was validated in the validation cohort (OR=5.38, p=10-9). Similarly, a haplotype with 4 SNVs (t19839c-g28881a-g28882a-g28883c) was observed only among inpatients (p=1.53*10-10) in the discovery cohort. Discovered haplotypic association was validated in the independent validation cohort (OR=3.69, p-value=3.44*10-10) and was further validated after adjusting for sex, age and collection time (OR=5.46, p-value=4.71*10-12). Interpretation: The mutant haplotype t19839c-g28881a-g28882a-g28883c emerged in April 2020, remained undetected over eight months, and has now begun to re-emerge. Because of its strong association with hospitalization status and re-emergence, this mutant haplotype may be a candidate variant for VOHC, pending further investigation of a) its clinical association with the disease severity, b) asymptomatic transmissibility and/or c) immune evasion to approved vaccines. While preliminary, this result indicates the importance to conduct purpose-driven clinical follow up studies to discover and validate candidate variants for VOHC. Also of interest is the mutant haplotype c15933t-g16968t which expanded in May 2020 but subsided by October 2020. Due to its association with hospitalization, we recommend continued monitoring for re-emergence of this variant and further assessment of viral phenotype.Funding: National Institutes of Health grant R01-GM129325 National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases grant UM1 AI068635Declaration of Interest: The authors declare that they have no competing interests.Ethical Approval: This study was approved by the Human Subject Review Committee at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center (IRB#6007-2043) and by the University of Washington Institutional Review Board (STUDY00000408).

Towards Discovering SARS-CoV-2 Variants of High Consequence Based on Both Surveillance and Electronically Captured Health Data: First Year Experience in Washington State (January 2020-2021) (preprint)

Background: SARS-CoV-2 is continuously evolving with the emergence of variants of interest (VOI) or with variants of concern (VOC). While Variants of High Consequence (VOHC) are well defined, no such variants have been formally documented. Here we propose an integrated strategy and application towards discovering VOHC.Methods: We utilized 7,137 viral sequences collected from COVID-19 cases in Washington State from January 19, 2020 to January 31, 2021, to identify genome-wide viral single nucleotide variants (SNVs). Utilizing a non-parametric regression model, we selected a subset of SNVs that had significant and substantial expansions over the collection period. Further, using unsupervised learning, we identified multiple SNVs forming haplotypes. To evaluate their clinical relevance, we assembled a discovery cohort of COVID-19 cases (388 inpatients and 295 outpatients) to identify SNVs and haplotypes associated with hospitalization status, a proxy for disease severity. A logistic regression model was used to assess associations of SNVs with hospitalization status in the discovery cohort. These results were validated on an independent cohort of 964 genome sequences derived from COVID-19 cases in Washington State from June 1, 2020 to March 31, 2021.Finding: The analysis of the 7,137 sequences led to identification of 107 SNVs that were statistically significant (false positive error rate q-value <0.01) and substantial expansions (maximum value of locally averaged proportions, Pmax>0.10). Forty-one SNVs were considered urgent, because their SNV proportions persisted or expanded above 10% in January 2021, the last month of the current investigation period. Correlating with clinical data, eight SNVs were found to significantly associate with inpatient status (p-values<0.001). By their synchronized dynamics, two SNVs were haplotyped and the mutant haplotype (c15933t-g16968t) was observed among patients in the discovery cohort (Fisher’s exact p=1.53*10-10), and this association was validated in the validation cohort (OR=5.38, p=10-9). Similarly, a haplotype with 4 SNVs (t19839c-g28881a-g28882a-g28883c) was observed only among inpatients (p=1.53*10-10) in the discovery cohort. Discovered haplotypic association was validated in the independent validation cohort (OR=3.69, p-value=3.44*10-10) and was further validated after adjusting for sex, age and collection time (OR=5.46, p-value=4.71*10-12). Interpretation: The mutant haplotype t19839c-g28881a-g28882a-g28883c emerged in April 2020, remained undetected over eight months, and has now begun to re-emerge. Because of its strong association with hospitalization status and re-emergence, this mutant haplotype may be a candidate variant for VOHC, pending further investigation of a) its clinical association with the disease severity, b) asymptomatic transmissibility and/or c) immune evasion to approved vaccines. While preliminary, this result indicates the importance to conduct purpose-driven clinical follow up studies to discover and validate candidate variants for VOHC. Also of interest is the mutant haplotype c15933t-g16968t which expanded in May 2020 but subsided by October 2020. Due to its association with hospitalization, we recommend continued monitoring for re-emergence of this variant and further assessment of viral phenotype.Funding Information: National Institutes of Health grant R01-GM129325. National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases grant UM1 AI068635Declaration of Interests: None to declare. Ethics Approval Statement: This study was approved by the Human Subject Review Committee at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center (IRB#6007-2043) and by the University of Washington Institutional Review Board (STUDY00000408).

Optimal test-assisted quarantine strategies for COVID-19 (preprint)

Background: Until herd immunity occurs for COVID-19, quarantine will remain a pillar for disease mitigation. A 14-day quarantine, although widely recommended for self-quarantine after potential infections and mandated by many government agencies can be physically and mentally stressful for those under quarantine and leads to lost productivity. Testing during quarantine is currently implemented by businesses and governments as a promising method to shorten the duration of quarantine. However, to our knowledge, no study has been performed to evaluate the performance of test-assisted quarantines and to identify the most effective choices of testing schedule. Methods: Based on statistical models for the transmissibility and viral loads of SARS-CoV-2 infections and sensitivity of various SARS-CoV-2 tests, we performed extensive simulations to evaluate the performance of quarantine strategies with one or more tests administered during quarantine. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of model assumptions on the selection of optimal strategies. Findings: We found that SARS-CoV-2 testing can effectively reduce the length of quarantine without compromising safety. Whereas a single RT-PCR test performed before the end of quarantine can reduce the duration of quarantine to 10 days, two tests can further reduce the duration to 8-days and three tests with a highly sensitive RT-PCR test can justify a 6-day quarantine. More strategic testing schedules and one more day of quarantine are needed if tests are administrated with a less sensitive but more cost-effective antigen test. Interpretation: Testing during quarantine could substantially reduce the length of quarantine, reducing the physical and mental stress caused by long quarantines. With increasing capacity and lowered costs of SARS-CoV-2 tests, testing-assisted quarantines could be safer and more cost-effective than 14-day quarantines and warrant more widespread use.

Viral genomes reveal patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Washington State (preprint)

The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 has gravely impacted societies around the world. Outbreaks in different parts of the globe are shaped by repeated introductions of new lineages and subsequent local transmission of those lineages. Here, we sequenced 3940 SARS-CoV-2 viral genomes from Washington State to characterize how the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Washington State (USA) was shaped by differences in timing of mitigation strategies across counties, as well as by repeated introductions of viral lineages into the state. Additionally, we show that the increase in frequency of a potentially more transmissible viral variant (614G) over time can potentially be explained by regional mobility differences and multiple introductions of 614G, but not the other variant (614D) into the state. At an individual level, we see evidence of higher viral loads in patients infected with the 614G variant. However, using clinical records data, we do not find any evidence that the 614G variant impacts clinical severity or patient outcomes. Overall, this suggests that at least to date, the behavior of individuals has been more important in shaping the course of the pandemic than changes in the virus.

Outcomes associated with SARS-CoV-2 viral clades in COVID-19 (preprint)

Background The COVID-19 epidemic of 2019-20 is due to the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. Following first case description in December, 2019 this virus has infected over 10 million individuals and resulted in at least 500,000 deaths world-wide. The virus is undergoing rapid mutation, with two major clades of sequence variants emerging. This study sought to determine whether SARS-CoV-2 sequence variants are associated with differing outcomes among COVID-19 patients in a single medical system. Methods Whole genome SARS-CoV-2 RNA sequence was obtained from isolates collected from patients registered in the University of Washington Medicine health system between March 1 and April 15, 2020. Demographic and baseline medical data along with outcomes of hospitalization and death were collected. Statistical and machine learning models were applied to determine if viral genetic variants were associated with specific outcomes of hospitalization or death. Findings Full length SARS-CoV-2 sequence was obtained 190 subjects with clinical outcome data. 35 (18.4%) were hospitalized and 14 (7.4%) died from complications of infection. A total of 289 single nucleotide variants were identified. Clustering methods demonstrated two major viral clades, which could be readily distinguished by 12 polymorphisms in 5 genes. A trend toward higher rates of hospitalization of patients with Clade 2 was observed (p=0.06). Machine learning models utilizing patient demographics and co-morbidities achieved area-under-the-curve (AUC) values of 0.93 for predicting hospitalization. Addition of viral clade or sequence information did not significantly improve models for outcome prediction. Conclusion SARS-CoV-2 shows substantial sequence diversity in a community-based sample. Two dominant clades of virus are in circulation. Among patients sufficiently ill to warrant testing for virus, no significant difference in outcomes of hospitalization or death could be discerned between clades in this sample. Major risk factors for hospitalization and death for either major clade of virus include patient age and comorbid conditions.

Identification of multiple large deletions in ORF7a resulting in in-frame gene fusions in clinical SARS-CoV-2 isolates (preprint)

Peculiar among human RNA viruses, coronaviruses have large genomes containing accessory genes that are not required for replication. Numerous mutations within the SARS-CoV-2 genome have been described but few deletions in the accessory genes of SARS-CoV-2 have been reported. Here, we report two large deletions in ORF7a, both of which produce new open reading frames (ORFs) through the fusion of the N-terminus of ORF7a and a downstream ORF.

Performance Characteristics of the Abbott Architect SARS-CoV-2 IgG Assay and Seroprevalence Testing in Idaho (preprint)

BackgroundCoronavirus disease-19 (COVID19), the novel respiratory illness caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is associated with severe morbidity and mortality. The rollout of diagnostic testing in the United States was slow, leading to numerous cases that were not tested for SARS-CoV-2 in February and March 2020, necessitating the use of serological testing to determine past infections. MethodsWe evaluated the Abbott SARS-CoV-2 IgG test for detection of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies by testing 3 distinct patient populations. ResultsWe tested 1,020 serum specimens collected prior to SARS-CoV-2 circulation in the United States and found one false positive, indicating a specificity of 99.90%. We tested 125 patients who tested RT-PCR positive for SARS-CoV-2 for which 689 excess serum specimens were available and found sensitivity reached 100% at day 17 after symptom onset and day 13 after PCR positivity. Alternative index value thresholds for positivity resulted in 100% sensitivity and 100% specificity in this cohort. We tested 4,856 individuals from Boise, Idaho collected over one week in April 2020 as part of the Crush the Curve initiative and detected 87 positives for a positivity rate of 1.79%. ConclusionsThese data demonstrate excellent analytical performance of the Abbott SARS-CoV-2 IgG test as well as the limited circulation of the virus in the western United States. We expect the availability of high-quality serological testing will be a key tool in the fight against SARS-CoV-2.