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1.
Med Lav ; 112(6): 414-421, 2021 Dec 23.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1591099

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Italy was severely hit by the Covid-19 pandemic with an excess of around 90,000 total deaths in 2020. Comparable data in 2021 are needed for monitoring the effects of the interventions adopted to control its spread and reduce the burden. This study estimates the excess mortality in Italy in the first eight months of 2021, with a focus on the working age population. METHODS: Excess mortality was estimated as difference between the number of registered deaths and the expected deaths. Expected deaths in March-December 2020 and January-August 2021 were estimated separately by sex, through an over-dispersed Poisson regression model using mortality and population data for the period 2011-2019 (before the Covid-19 outbreak). The models included terms for calendar year, age group, a smooth function of week of the year and the natural logarithm of the population as offset term.  Results: In the first eight months of 2021, we estimated 34,599 excess deaths (+7.9% of the expected deaths), of these 3667 were among individuals of working age (25-64 years). In this age group, mortality was 8.2% higher than expected with higher excesses among men (2972 deaths, +10.7%) than women (695 deaths, +4.1%). CONCLUSIONS: The excess deaths in the first eight months of 2021 account for about one third of that registered in 2020. Current data indicate that around 5000 excess deaths are expected by the end of the year, leading to a total excess for 2021 of around 40 thousand deaths. Despite the absence of influenza in January-March 2021, a relevant excess was also observed among the working age population.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Adult , Female , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , SARS-CoV-2
2.
J Cyst Fibros ; 2021 Dec 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1562343

ABSTRACT

The prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in people with cystic fibrosis (CF) is largely unknown. We carried out a cross-sectional study between March and June 2021 with the aim of estimating the seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in two CF centres in Northern Italy. Total serum anti-SARS-CoV-2 (spike) antibodies levels were measured and values ≥0.8 U/mL were considered positive. Among 434 patients aged >12 years, 64 patients had a positive result (14.7%, 95% CI: 11.5-18.4), 36 (56.3%) without experiencing any COVID-19-related symptoms. Three out of 49 transplanted patients tested positive with an odds ratio for a positive result among transplanted as compared to non-transplanted patients of 0.35 (95% CI: 0.07-1.14). No significant differences were observed between sexes, age groups, socioeconomic status and lung disease severity. In conclusion, SARS-CoV-2 has infected a relatively high proportion of our patients but in most cases the infection was asymptomatic.

3.
Infection ; 2021 Dec 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1555289

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To describe the clinical course of COVID-19 in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) and to identify risk factors for severe COVID-19. METHODS: We conducted a prospective study within the Italian CF Society. CF centers collected baseline and follow-up data of patients with virologically confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between March 2020 and June 2021. Odds ratios (ORs) for severe SARS-CoV-2 (as defined by hospital admission) were estimated by logistic regression models. RESULTS: The study included 236 patients with positive molecular test for SARS-CoV-2. Six patients died, 43 patients were admitted to hospital, 4 admitted to intensive care unit. Pancreatic insufficiency was associated with increased risk of severe COVID-19 (OR 4.04, 95% CI 1.52; 10.8). After adjusting for age and pancreatic insufficiency, forced expiratory volume in one second (FEVp) < 40% (OR 4.54, 95% CI 1.56; 13.2), oxygen therapy (OR 12.3, 95% CI 2.91-51.7), underweight (OR 2.92, 95% CI 1.12; 7.57), organ transplantation (OR 7.31, 95% CI 2.59; 20.7), diabetes (OR 2.67, 95% CI 1.23; 5.80) and liver disease (OR 3.67, 95% CI 1.77; 7.59) were associated with increased risk of severe COVID-19, while use of dornase alfa was associated with a reduced risk (OR 0.34, 95% CI 0.13-0.88). No significant changes were observed in FEVp from baseline to a median follow-up of 2 months (median difference: 0, interquartile range: - 4; 5, P = 0.62). CONCLUSION: Clinical features indicative of severe form of CF are associated with increased risk of COVID-19 hospitalization. SARS-CoV-2 infected patients do not experience a deterioration of respiratory function.

4.
BMJ ; 373: n1137, 2021 05 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1273156

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the direct and indirect effects of the covid-19 pandemic on mortality in 2020 in 29 high income countries with reliable and complete age and sex disaggregated mortality data. DESIGN: Time series study of high income countries. SETTING: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, England and Wales, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Scotland, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United States. PARTICIPANTS: Mortality data from the Short-term Mortality Fluctuations data series of the Human Mortality Database for 2016-20, harmonised and disaggregated by age and sex. INTERVENTIONS: Covid-19 pandemic and associated policy measures. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Weekly excess deaths (observed deaths versus expected deaths predicted by model) in 2020, by sex and age (0-14, 15-64, 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 years), estimated using an over-dispersed Poisson regression model that accounts for temporal trends and seasonal variability in mortality. RESULTS: An estimated 979 000 (95% confidence interval 954 000 to 1 001 000) excess deaths occurred in 2020 in the 29 high income countries analysed. All countries had excess deaths in 2020, except New Zealand, Norway, and Denmark. The five countries with the highest absolute number of excess deaths were the US (458 000, 454 000 to 461 000), Italy (89 100, 87 500 to 90 700), England and Wales (85 400, 83 900 to 86 800), Spain (84 100, 82 800 to 85 300), and Poland (60 100, 58 800 to 61 300). New Zealand had lower overall mortality than expected (-2500, -2900 to -2100). In many countries, the estimated number of excess deaths substantially exceeded the number of reported deaths from covid-19. The highest excess death rates (per 100 000) in men were in Lithuania (285, 259 to 311), Poland (191, 184 to 197), Spain (179, 174 to 184), Hungary (174, 161 to 188), and Italy (168, 163 to 173); the highest rates in women were in Lithuania (210, 185 to 234), Spain (180, 175 to 185), Hungary (169, 156 to 182), Slovenia (158, 132 to 184), and Belgium (151, 141 to 162). Little evidence was found of subsequent compensatory reductions following excess mortality. CONCLUSION: Approximately one million excess deaths occurred in 2020 in these 29 high income countries. Age standardised excess death rates were higher in men than women in almost all countries. Excess deaths substantially exceeded reported deaths from covid-19 in many countries, indicating that determining the full impact of the pandemic on mortality requires assessment of excess deaths. Many countries had lower deaths than expected in children <15 years. Sex inequality in mortality widened further in most countries in 2020.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/mortality , Developed Countries/statistics & numerical data , Mortality , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Child , Child, Preschool , Europe/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Male , Middle Aged , Models, Statistical , Poisson Distribution , Republic of Korea/epidemiology , Sex Factors , United States/epidemiology , Young Adult
5.
BMJ ; 373: n1137, 2021 05 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1236432

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the direct and indirect effects of the covid-19 pandemic on mortality in 2020 in 29 high income countries with reliable and complete age and sex disaggregated mortality data. DESIGN: Time series study of high income countries. SETTING: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, England and Wales, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Scotland, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United States. PARTICIPANTS: Mortality data from the Short-term Mortality Fluctuations data series of the Human Mortality Database for 2016-20, harmonised and disaggregated by age and sex. INTERVENTIONS: Covid-19 pandemic and associated policy measures. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Weekly excess deaths (observed deaths versus expected deaths predicted by model) in 2020, by sex and age (0-14, 15-64, 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 years), estimated using an over-dispersed Poisson regression model that accounts for temporal trends and seasonal variability in mortality. RESULTS: An estimated 979 000 (95% confidence interval 954 000 to 1 001 000) excess deaths occurred in 2020 in the 29 high income countries analysed. All countries had excess deaths in 2020, except New Zealand, Norway, and Denmark. The five countries with the highest absolute number of excess deaths were the US (458 000, 454 000 to 461 000), Italy (89 100, 87 500 to 90 700), England and Wales (85 400, 83 900 to 86 800), Spain (84 100, 82 800 to 85 300), and Poland (60 100, 58 800 to 61 300). New Zealand had lower overall mortality than expected (-2500, -2900 to -2100). In many countries, the estimated number of excess deaths substantially exceeded the number of reported deaths from covid-19. The highest excess death rates (per 100 000) in men were in Lithuania (285, 259 to 311), Poland (191, 184 to 197), Spain (179, 174 to 184), Hungary (174, 161 to 188), and Italy (168, 163 to 173); the highest rates in women were in Lithuania (210, 185 to 234), Spain (180, 175 to 185), Hungary (169, 156 to 182), Slovenia (158, 132 to 184), and Belgium (151, 141 to 162). Little evidence was found of subsequent compensatory reductions following excess mortality. CONCLUSION: Approximately one million excess deaths occurred in 2020 in these 29 high income countries. Age standardised excess death rates were higher in men than women in almost all countries. Excess deaths substantially exceeded reported deaths from covid-19 in many countries, indicating that determining the full impact of the pandemic on mortality requires assessment of excess deaths. Many countries had lower deaths than expected in children <15 years. Sex inequality in mortality widened further in most countries in 2020.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/mortality , Developed Countries/statistics & numerical data , Mortality , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Child , Child, Preschool , Europe/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Male , Middle Aged , Models, Statistical , Poisson Distribution , Republic of Korea/epidemiology , Sex Factors , United States/epidemiology , Young Adult
6.
PLoS One ; 16(5): e0251527, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1226898

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To describe the symptoms and clinical course of SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF). METHODS: We carried out a prospective multicentre cohort study based on 32 CF centres and 6597 patients. Centres were contacted to collect baseline and follow-up data of patients who reported symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 or who had contact with a positive/suspected case between the end of February and July 2020. Symptoms and clinical course of the infection were compared between patients who tested positive by molecular testing (cases) and those who tested negative (controls). RESULTS: Thirty patients were reported from the centres, 16 of them tested positive and 14 tested negative. No differences in symptoms and outcome of the disease were observed between groups. Fever, cough, asthenia and dyspnea were the most frequently reported symptoms. Eight cases (50%) were hospitalized but none required ICU admission. Two adults with a history of lung transplant required non-invasive ventilation, none required ICU admission and all patients fully recovered without short-term sequelae. CONCLUSIONS: The course of SARS-CoV-2 in our patients was relatively favorable. However, COVID-19 should not be considered a mild disease in CF patients, particularly for those with severely impaired respiratory function and organ transplant.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/complications , Cystic Fibrosis/complications , Adult , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/therapy , Cystic Fibrosis/therapy , Disease Management , Female , Hospitalization , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Male , Prospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Young Adult
7.
Panminerva Med ; 2021 Apr 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1206604

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Differences between total deaths registered during the Covid-19 pandemic and those registered in a previous reference period is a valid measure of the pandemic effect. However, this does not consider demographic changes and temporal trends in mortality. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the excess mortality in 2020 in Italy considering demographic changes and temporal trends in mortality. METHODS: We used daily mortality and population data for the 2011-2019 period to estimate the expected deaths in 2020. Expected deaths were estimated, separately by sex, through an over-dispersed Poisson regression model including calendar year and age group as covariates, a smooth function of the year's week, and the logarithm of the population as offset. The difference between observed and expected deaths was considered a measure of excess mortality. RESULTS: In 2020, 746,146 deaths occurred in Italy. We estimated an excess mortality of 90,725 deaths (95% CI: 86,503-94,914), which became 99,289 deaths after excluding January and February, when mortality was lower than expected. The excess was higher among men (49,422 deaths) than women (41,303 deaths) and it was mostly detected at ages ≥80 (60,224 deaths) and ages 65-79 (25,791 deaths), while among the population aged 25-49 and 50-64 we estimated an excess of 281 and 4764 deaths, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: After considering demographic changes and temporal improvement in mortality the excess deaths in 2020 still remains above 90,000 deaths. More important, considering these factors, the excess at ages <80 years is revised upwards, while the excess at older ages is revised downwards.

8.
Eur J Public Health ; 31(3): 625-629, 2021 07 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1145169

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: There is mounting evidence that socioeconomic inequalities in mortality have widened during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed at evaluating the relationship between area-level indicators of income and total mortality during the first phase of COVID-19 pandemic in the most hit Italian region. METHODS: We conducted an ecological study based on the number of deaths registered in the municipalities of the Lombardy region (Italy) between January 2019 and June 2020. Municipalities were grouped according to quintiles of average income and pension of their resident population. Monthly age-standardized mortality ratios (MRs) between the poorest and the richest municipalities and the corresponding 95% CI were computed to evaluate whether the pre-existing socioeconomic inequalities widened during the pandemic. RESULTS: Over the study period, 175 853 deaths were registered. During the pre-pandemic period (January 2019 to February 2020) the MR between the poorest and the richest municipalities ranged between 1.12 (95% CI: 1.00-1.25) and 1.33 (95% CI: 1.20-1.47). In March 2020, when the pandemic began to rapidly spread in the region, it raised up to 1.61 (95% CI: 1.51-1.72) and decreased thereafter, reaching the pre-pandemic values in April 2020. Similar results were observed in the analysis of the mortality at ages 65 and over in municipalities grouped according to average pension, where the MR increased up to 1.82 (95% CI: 1.70-1.94) in March 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The socioeconomic inequalities in mortality widened in Lombardy, the Italian region most severely hit during the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Aged , Cities , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Mortality , SARS-CoV-2
10.
Med Lav ; 111(6): 445-448, 2020 Nov 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-976685

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: We aimed at describing the attitudes towards influenza vaccination and a potential COVID-19 vaccine in Italy. METHODS: A nationally representative survey based on 1055 Italians aged 15-85 years was conducted in September 16-28, 2020. RESULTS: We found that 40.8% of the population reported the intention to be vaccinated against influenza next winter and 53.7% would accept to receive a potential COVID-19 vaccine. The percentages were higher among individuals aged 55 and over (58.8% for influenza vaccine and 58.2% for a potential COVID-19 vaccine) and among professionals, managers and teachers as compared to manual workers and farmers (36.1% vs. 27.6% for influenza vaccine and 51.6% vs. 44.8% for a potential COVID-19 vaccine). DISCUSSION: These data confirm a certain degree of vaccine mistrust in Italy, especially among less qualified workers.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice , Influenza Vaccines , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19 Vaccines , Cross-Sectional Studies , Humans , Italy , Middle Aged , Occupations , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Surveys and Questionnaires , Vaccination , Young Adult
11.
Med Lav ; 111(5): 351-353, 2020 Oct 31.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-895855

ABSTRACT

Based on mortality data from 93% of Italian municipalities, there was an over 50% excess total mortality in March and a 38% excess in April, corresponding to over 46,000 excess deaths in those two months - as compared to 28,000 deaths attributed to COVID-19 in March and April. No subsequent excess mortality was observed, and in June reported total deaths were 6.2% less than expected. In the first 6 months of 2020, an 11.1% excess mortality was observed in Italy, and an almost 50% excess in Lombardy, the most affected region. Timely monitoring of total mortality has relevant implications for monitoring the COVID-19 pandemic and controlling occupational and social exposures.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Mortality/trends , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
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