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Sci Rep ; 11(1): 4200, 2021 02 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1091452


Since its emergence in late 2019, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused a pandemic with more than 55 million reported cases and 1.3 million estimated deaths worldwide. While epidemiological and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 have been reported, risk factors underlying the transition from mild to severe disease among patients remain poorly understood. In this retrospective study, we analysed data of 879 confirmed SARS-CoV-2 positive patients admitted to a two-site NHS Trust hospital in London, England, between January 1st and May 26th, 2020, with a majority of cases occurring in March and April. We extracted anonymised demographic data, physiological clinical variables and laboratory results from electronic healthcare records (EHR) and applied multivariate logistic regression, random forest and extreme gradient boosted trees. To evaluate the potential for early risk assessment, we used data available during patients' initial presentation at the emergency department (ED) to predict deterioration to one of three clinical endpoints in the remainder of the hospital stay: admission to intensive care, need for invasive mechanical ventilation and in-hospital mortality. Based on the trained models, we extracted the most informative clinical features in determining these patient trajectories. Considering our inclusion criteria, we have identified 129 of 879 (15%) patients that required intensive care, 62 of 878 (7%) patients needing mechanical ventilation, and 193 of 619 (31%) cases of in-hospital mortality. Our models learned successfully from early clinical data and predicted clinical endpoints with high accuracy, the best model achieving area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC) scores of 0.76 to 0.87 (F1 scores of 0.42-0.60). Younger patient age was associated with an increased risk of receiving intensive care and ventilation, but lower risk of mortality. Clinical indicators of a patient's oxygen supply and selected laboratory results, such as blood lactate and creatinine levels, were most predictive of COVID-19 patient trajectories. Among COVID-19 patients machine learning can aid in the early identification of those with a poor prognosis, using EHR data collected during a patient's first presentation at ED. Patient age and measures of oxygenation status during ED stay are primary indicators of poor patient outcomes.

COVID-19/mortality , Emergency Service, Hospital/statistics & numerical data , Machine Learning , Risk Assessment/methods , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Disease Progression , Female , Hospital Mortality/trends , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Hospitals/statistics & numerical data , Humans , London/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , ROC Curve , Respiration, Artificial/statistics & numerical data , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , United Kingdom/epidemiology
Physiol Meas ; 41(10): 10TR01, 2020 11 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-780288


Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is rapidly spreading across the globe. The clinical spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia requires early detection and monitoring, within a clinical environment for critical cases and remotely for mild cases, with a large spectrum of symptoms. The fear of contamination in clinical environments has led to a dramatic reduction in on-site referrals for routine care. There has also been a perceived need to continuously monitor non-severe COVID-19 patients, either from their quarantine site at home, or dedicated quarantine locations (e.g. hotels). In particular, facilitating contact tracing with proximity and location tracing apps was adopted in many countries very rapidly. Thus, the pandemic has driven incentives to innovate and enhance or create new routes for providing healthcare services at distance. In particular, this has created a dramatic impetus to find innovative ways to remotely and effectively monitor patient health status. In this paper, we present a review of remote health monitoring initiatives taken in 20 states during the time of the pandemic. We emphasize in the discussion particular aspects that are common ground for the reviewed states, in particular the future impact of the pandemic on remote health monitoring and consideration on data privacy.

Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Coronavirus Infections/physiopathology , Monitoring, Physiologic/methods , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis , Pneumonia, Viral/physiopathology , Telemedicine/methods , COVID-19 , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Humans , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology