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1.
Clin Hemorheol Microcirc ; 2023 May 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-20235294

ABSTRACT

AIMS: Anemia is common in the old and often observed in critically ill patients. Increased age is associated with higher mortality following a COVID-19 infection, making old patients prone to poor outcomes. We investigated whether anemia at admission to the ICU or the need for blood transfusion was associated with 90-day mortality in older, critically ill COVID-19 patients. METHODS: In this prospective multicenter study, the 90-day mortality of COVID-19 patients≥70 years treated in 138 intensive care units (ICU) was analyzed. Associations between anemia (WHO definition) at admission and discharge from ICU and the use of red blood cell (RBC) transfusions with mortality were assessed. Hemoglobin thresholds of RBC transfusions in old, critically ill COVID-19 patients were recorded. RESULTS: In 493 patients (350 anemic, 143 non-anemic), anemia (WHO definition) at the time of ICU admission was not associated with impaired overall survival. Transfusion and severe anemia (hemoglobin≤10 g/dL) at ICU discharge were independently associated with a higher risk of 90-day mortality. CONCLUSION: The need for red blood cell transfusions and severe anemia at ICU discharge, but not at the timepoint of admission, were independently associated with 90-day mortality in critically-ill old COVID-19 patients.

4.
Infection ; 2023 Mar 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2271413

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Several studies have found an association between diabetes mellitus, disease severity and outcome in COVID-19 patients. Old critically ill patients are particularly at risk. This study aimed to investigate the impact of diabetes mellitus on 90-day mortality in a high-risk cohort of critically ill patients over 70 years of age. METHODS: This multicentre international prospective cohort study was performed in 151 ICUs across 26 countries. We included patients ≥ 70 years of age with a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection admitted to the intensive care unit from 19th March 2020 through 15th July 2021. Patients were categorized into two groups according to the presence of diabetes mellitus. Primary outcome was 90-day mortality. Kaplan-Meier overall survival curves until day 90 were analysed and compared using the log-rank test. Mixed-effect Weibull regression models were computed to investigate the influence of diabetes mellitus on 90-day mortality. RESULTS: This study included 3420 patients with a median age of 76 years were included. Among these, 37.3% (n = 1277) had a history of diabetes mellitus. Patients with diabetes showed higher rates of frailty (32% vs. 18%) and several comorbidities including chronic heart failure (20% vs. 11%), hypertension (79% vs. 59%) and chronic kidney disease (25% vs. 11%), but not of pulmonary comorbidities (22% vs. 22%). The 90-day mortality was significantly higher in patients with diabetes than those without diabetes (64% vs. 56%, p < 0.001). The association of diabetes and 90-day mortality remained significant (HR 1.18 [1.06-1.31], p = 0.003) after adjustment for age, sex, SOFA-score and other comorbidities in a Weibull regression analysis. CONCLUSION: Diabetes mellitus was a relevant risk factor for 90-day mortality in old critically ill patients with COVID-19. STUDY REGISTRATION: NCT04321265, registered March 19th, 2020.

7.
BMC Geriatr ; 22(1): 1000, 2022 12 27.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2196065

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In the early COVID-19 pandemic concerns about the correct choice of analgesics in patients with COVID-19 were raised. Little data was available on potential usefulness or harmfulness of prescription free analgesics, such as paracetamol. This international multicentre study addresses that lack of evidence regarding the usefulness or potential harm of paracetamol intake prior to ICU admission in a setting of COVID-19 disease within a large, prospectively enrolled cohort of critically ill and frail intensive care unit (ICU) patients. METHODS: This prospective international observation study (The COVIP study) recruited ICU patients ≥ 70 years admitted with COVID-19. Data on Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, prior paracetamol intake within 10 days before admission, ICU therapy, limitations of care and survival during the ICU stay, at 30 days, and 3 months. Paracetamol intake was analysed for associations with ICU-, 30-day- and 3-month-mortality using Kaplan Meier analysis. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses were used to stratify 30-day-mortality in subgroups for patient-specific characteristics using logistic regression. RESULTS: 44% of the 2,646 patients with data recorded regarding paracetamol intake within 10 days prior to ICU admission took paracetamol. There was no difference in age between patients with and without paracetamol intake. Patients taking paracetamol suffered from more co-morbidities, namely diabetes mellitus (43% versus 34%, p < 0.001), arterial hypertension (70% versus 65%, p = 0.006) and had a higher score on Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS; IQR 2-5 versus IQR 2-4, p < 0.001). Patients under prior paracetamol treatment were less often subjected to intubation and vasopressor use, compared to patients without paracetamol intake (65 versus 71%, p < 0.001; 63 versus 69%, p = 0.007). Paracetamol intake was not associated with ICU-, 30-day- and 3-month-mortality, remaining true after multivariate adjusted analysis. CONCLUSION: Paracetamol intake prior to ICU admission was not associated with short-term and 3-month mortality in old, critically ill intensive care patients suffering from COVID-19. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This prospective international multicentre study was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov with the identifier "NCT04321265" on March 25, 2020.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , Acetaminophen/therapeutic use , Prospective Studies , Critical Illness , Pandemics , Critical Care/methods
8.
J Bras Pneumol ; 48(5): e20220361, 2022 11 14.
Article in English, Portuguese | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2119205

Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , SARS-CoV-2
9.
J Clin Med ; 11(23)2022 11 26.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2123718

ABSTRACT

We describe the incidence, practice and associations with outcomes of awake prone positioning in patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a national multicenter observational cohort study performed in 16 intensive care units in the Netherlands (PRoAcT−COVID-study). Patients were categorized in two groups, based on received treatment of awake prone positioning. The primary endpoint was practice of prone positioning. Secondary endpoint was 'treatment failure', a composite of intubation for invasive ventilation and death before day 28. We used propensity matching to control for observed confounding factors. In 546 patients, awake prone positioning was used in 88 (16.1%) patients. Prone positioning started within median 1 (0 to 2) days after ICU admission, sessions summed up to median 12.0 (8.4−14.5) hours for median 1.0 day. In the unmatched analysis (HR, 1.80 (1.41−2.31); p < 0.001), but not in the matched analysis (HR, 1.17 (0.87−1.59); p = 0.30), treatment failure occurred more often in patients that received prone positioning. The findings of this study are that awake prone positioning was used in one in six COVID-19 patients. Prone positioning started early, and sessions lasted long but were often discontinued because of need for intubation.

10.
PLOS Digit Health ; 1(11): e0000136, 2022 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2113817

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 remains a complex disease in terms of its trajectory and the diversity of outcomes rendering disease management and clinical resource allocation challenging. Varying symptomatology in older patients as well as limitation of clinical scoring systems have created the need for more objective and consistent methods to aid clinical decision making. In this regard, machine learning methods have been shown to enhance prognostication, while improving consistency. However, current machine learning approaches have been limited by lack of generalisation to diverse patient populations, between patients admitted at different waves and small sample sizes. OBJECTIVES: We sought to investigate whether machine learning models, derived on routinely collected clinical data, can generalise well i) between European countries, ii) between European patients admitted at different COVID-19 waves, and iii) between geographically diverse patients, namely whether a model derived on the European patient cohort can be used to predict outcomes of patients admitted to Asian, African and American ICUs. METHODS: We compare Logistic Regression, Feed Forward Neural Network and XGBoost algorithms to analyse data from 3,933 older patients with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis in predicting three outcomes, namely: ICU mortality, 30-day mortality and patients at low risk of deterioration. The patients were admitted to ICUs located in 37 countries, between January 11, 2020, and April 27, 2021. RESULTS: The XGBoost model derived on the European cohort and externally validated in cohorts of Asian, African, and American patients, achieved AUC of 0.89 (95% CI 0.89-0.89) in predicting ICU mortality, AUC of 0.86 (95% CI 0.86-0.86) for 30-day mortality prediction and AUC of 0.86 (95% CI 0.86-0.86) in predicting low-risk patients. Similar AUC performance was achieved also when predicting outcomes between European countries and between pandemic waves, while the models showed high calibration quality. Furthermore, saliency analysis showed that FiO2 values of up to 40% do not appear to increase the predicted risk of ICU and 30-day mortality, while PaO2 values of 75 mmHg or lower are associated with a sharp increase in the predicted risk of ICU and 30-day mortality. Lastly, increase in SOFA scores also increase the predicted risk, but only up to a value of 8. Beyond these scores the predicted risk remains consistently high. CONCLUSION: The models captured both the dynamic course of the disease as well as similarities and differences between the diverse patient cohorts, enabling prediction of disease severity, identification of low-risk patients and potentially supporting effective planning of essential clinical resources. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04321265.

11.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 17460, 2022 Oct 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2077101

ABSTRACT

In Europe, tax-based healthcare systems (THS) and social health insurance systems (SHI) coexist. We examined differences in 30-day mortality among critically ill patients aged ≥ 70 years treated in intensive care units in a THS or SHI. Retrospective cohort study. 2406 (THS n = 886; SHI n = 1520) critically ill ≥ 70 years patients in 129 ICUs. Generalized estimation equations with robust standard errors were chosen to create population average adjusted odds ratios (aOR). Data were adjusted for patient-specific variables, organ support and health economic data. The primary outcome was 30-day-mortality. Numerical differences between SHI and THS in SOFA scores (6 ± 3 vs. 5 ± 3; p = 0.002) were observed, but clinical frailty scores were similar (> 4; 17% vs. 14%; p = 0.09). Higher rates of renal replacement therapy (18% vs. 11%; p < 0.001) were found in SHI (aOR 0.61 95%CI 0.40-0.92; p = 0.02). No differences regarding intubation rates (68% vs. 70%; p = 0.33), vasopressor use (67% vs. 67%; p = 0.90) and 30-day-mortality rates (47% vs. 50%; p = 0.16) were found. Mortality remained similar between both systems after multivariable adjustment and sensitivity analyses. The retrospective character of this study. Baseline risk and mortality rates were similar between SHI and THS. The type of health care system does not appear to have played a role in the intensive care treatment of critically ill patients ≥ 70 years with COVID-19 in Europe.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Critical Illness , Humans , Retrospective Studies , Intensive Care Units , Delivery of Health Care , Insurance, Health
12.
Crit Care ; 26(1): 292, 2022 09 27.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2053944

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is common in patients with severe SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. The aim of this ancillary analysis of the coVAPid multicenter observational retrospective study is to assess the relationship between adjuvant corticosteroid use and the incidence of VAP. METHODS: Planned ancillary analysis of a multicenter retrospective European cohort in 36 ICUs. Adult patients receiving invasive mechanical ventilation for more than 48 h for SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia were consecutively included between February and May 2020. VAP diagnosis required strict definition with clinical, radiological and quantitative microbiological confirmation. We assessed the association of VAP with corticosteroid treatment using univariate and multivariate cause-specific Cox's proportional hazard models with adjustment on pre-specified confounders. RESULTS: Among the 545 included patients, 191 (35%) received corticosteroids. The proportional hazard assumption for the effect of corticosteroids on the incidence of VAP could not be accepted, indicating that this effect varied during ICU stay. We found a non-significant lower risk of VAP for corticosteroid-treated patients during the first days in the ICU and an increased risk for longer ICU stay. By modeling the effect of corticosteroids with time-dependent coefficients, the association between corticosteroids and the incidence of VAP was not significant (overall effect p = 0.082), with time-dependent hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of 0.47 (0.17-1.31) at day 2, 0.95 (0.63-1.42) at day 7, 1.48 (1.01-2.16) at day 14 and 1.94 (1.09-3.46) at day 21. CONCLUSIONS: No significant association was found between adjuvant corticosteroid treatment and the incidence of VAP, although a time-varying effect of corticosteroids was identified along the 28-day follow-up.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pneumonia, Ventilator-Associated , Adult , COVID-19/complications , COVID-19/epidemiology , Humans , Incidence , Intensive Care Units , Pneumonia, Ventilator-Associated/drug therapy , Pneumonia, Ventilator-Associated/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Ventilator-Associated/etiology , Respiration, Artificial/adverse effects , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2
13.
Can J Anaesth ; 69(11): 1390-1398, 2022 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1982372

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Older critically ill patients with COVID-19 have been the most vulnerable during the ongoing pandemic, with men being more prone to hospitalization and severe disease than women. We aimed to explore sex-specific differences in treatment and outcome after intensive care unit (ICU) admission in this cohort. METHODS: We performed a sex-specific analysis in critically ill patients ≥ 70 yr of age with COVID-19 who were included in the international prospective multicenter COVIP study. All patients were analyzed for ICU admission and treatment characteristics. We performed a multilevel adjusted regression analysis to elucidate associations of sex with 30-day mortality. RESULTS: A total of 3,159 patients (69.8% male, 30.2% female; median age, 75 yr) were included. Male patients were significantly fitter than female patients as determined by the Clinical Frailty Scale (fit, 67% vs 54%; vulnerable, 14% vs 19%; frail, 19% vs 27%; P < 0.001). Male patients more often underwent tracheostomy (20% vs 14%; odds ratio [OR], 1.57; P < 0.001), vasopressor therapy (69% vs 62%; OR, 1.25; P = 0.02), and renal replacement therapy (17% vs 11%; OR, 1.96; P < 0.001). There was no difference in mechanical ventilation, life-sustaining treatment limitations, and crude 30-day mortality (50% male vs 49% female; OR, 1.11; P = 0.19), which remained true after adjustment for disease severity, frailty, age and treatment limitations (OR, 1.17; 95% confidence interval, 0.94 to 1.45; P = 0.16). CONCLUSION: In this analysis of sex-specific treatment characteristics and 30-day mortality outcomes of critically ill patients with COVID-19 ≥ 70 yr of age, we found more tracheostomy and renal replacement therapy in male vs female patients, but no significant association of patient sex with 30-day mortality. STUDY REGISTRATION: www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov (NCT04321265); registered 25 March 2020).


RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: Les patients âgés gravement malades atteints de la COVID-19 ont été les plus vulnérables pendant la pandémie actuelle, les hommes étant plus sujets à l'hospitalisation et aux maladies graves que les femmes. Nous avons cherché à explorer les différences spécifiques au sexe dans le traitement et les devenirs après l'admission à l'unité de soins intensifs (USI) dans cette cohorte. MéTHODE: Nous avons effectué une analyse spécifique au sexe chez des patients gravement malades âgés de ≥ 70 ans atteints de COVID-19 qui ont été inclus dans l'étude prospective multicentrique internationale COVIP. Tous les patients ont été analysés pour connaître les détails de leur admission à l'USI et les caractéristiques de leur traitement. Nous avons réalisé une analyse de régression ajustée à plusieurs niveaux pour élucider les associations entre le sexe et la mortalité à 30 jours. RéSULTATS: Au total, 3159 patients (69,8 % d'hommes, 30,2 % de femmes; âge médian, 75 ans) ont été inclus. Les patients de sexe masculin étaient significativement plus en forme que les patientes, tel que déterminé par l'échelle de fragilité clinique (bonne santé, 67 % vs 54 %; vulnérables, 14 % vs 19 %; fragiles, 19 % vs 27 %; P < 0,001). Les patients de sexe masculin ont plus souvent bénéficié d'une trachéostomie (20 % vs 14 %; rapport de cotes [RC], 1,57; P < 0,001), d'un traitement vasopresseur (69 % vs 62 %; RC, 1,25; P = 0,02) et d'un traitement substitutif de l'insuffisance rénale (17 % vs 11 %; RC, 1,96; P < 0,001). Il n'y avait aucune différence en matière de ventilation mécanique, de limites des traitements de maintien en vie et de mortalité brute à 30 jours (50 % d'hommes vs 49 % de femmes; RC, 1,11; P = 0,19), ce qui est demeuré le cas après ajustement pour tenir compte de la gravité de la maladie, de la fragilité, de l'âge et des limites du traitement (RC, 1,17 ; intervalle de confiance à 95 %, 0,94 à 1,45; P = 0,16). CONCLUSION: Dans cette analyse des caractéristiques de traitement spécifiques au sexe et des résultats de mortalité à 30 jours des patients gravement malades atteints de COVID-19 de ≥ 70 ans, nous avons noté un nombre plus élevé de trachéotomies et de traitements substitutifs de l'insuffisance rénale chez les hommes vs les femmes, mais aucune association significative entre le sexe des patients et la mortalité à 30 jours. ENREGISTREMENT DE L'éTUDE: www.ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04321265); enregistré le 25 mars 2020.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Frailty , Humans , Female , Male , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Critical Illness , COVID-19/therapy , Prospective Studies , Pandemics , Intensive Care Units
14.
Crit Care ; 26(1): 224, 2022 07 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1957066

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Noninvasive ventilation (NIV) is a promising alternative to invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) with a particular importance amidst the shortage of intensive care unit (ICU) beds during the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to evaluate the use of NIV in Europe and factors associated with outcomes of patients treated with NIV. METHODS: This is a substudy of COVIP study-an international prospective observational study enrolling patients aged ≥ 70 years with confirmed COVID-19 treated in ICU. We enrolled patients in 156 ICUs across 15 European countries between March 2020 and April 2021.The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality. RESULTS: Cohort included 3074 patients, most of whom were male (2197/3074, 71.4%) at the mean age of 75.7 years (SD 4.6). NIV frequency was 25.7% and varied from 1.1 to 62.0% between participating countries. Primary NIV failure, defined as need for endotracheal intubation or death within 30 days since ICU admission, occurred in 470/629 (74.7%) of patients. Factors associated with increased NIV failure risk were higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (OR 3.73, 95% CI 2.36-5.90) and Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) on admission (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.06-2.00). Patients initially treated with NIV (n = 630) lived for 1.36 fewer days (95% CI - 2.27 to - 0.46 days) compared to primary IMV group (n = 1876). CONCLUSIONS: Frequency of NIV use varies across European countries. Higher severity of illness and more severe frailty were associated with a risk of NIV failure among critically ill older adults with COVID-19. Primary IMV was associated with better outcomes than primary NIV. Clinical Trial Registration NCT04321265 , registered 19 March 2020, https://clinicaltrials.gov .


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Frailty , Noninvasive Ventilation , Respiratory Insufficiency , Aged , COVID-19/therapy , Cohort Studies , Female , Humans , Intensive Care Units , Male , Noninvasive Ventilation/adverse effects , Pandemics , Prospective Studies , Respiration, Artificial , Respiratory Insufficiency/therapy
15.
Pharmaceutics ; 14(7)2022 Jul 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1928624

ABSTRACT

Nearly four million yearly deaths can be attributed to respiratory diseases, prompting a huge worldwide health emergency. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic's death toll has surpassed six million, significantly increasing respiratory disease morbidity and mortality rates. Despite recent advances, it is still challenging for many drugs to be homogeneously distributed throughout the lungs, and specifically to reach the lower respiratory tract with an accurate sustained dose and minimal systemic side effects. Engineered nanocarriers can provide increased therapeutic efficacy while lessening potential biochemical adverse reactions. Poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid) (PLGA), a biodegradable polymer, has attracted significant interest as an inhalable drug delivery system. However, the influence of the nanocarrier surface charge and its intratracheal instillation has not been addressed so far. In this study, we fabricated red fluorescent PLGA nanocapsules (NCs)-Cy5/PLGA-with either positive (Cy5/PLGA+) or negative surface charge (Cy5/PLGA-). We report here on their excellent colloidal stability in culture and biological media, and after cryo-storage. Their lack of cytotoxicity in two relevant lung cell types, even for concentrations as high as 10 mg/mL, is also reported. More importantly, differences in the NCs' cell uptake rates and internalization capacity were identified. The uptake of the anionic system was faster and in much higher amounts-10-fold and 2.5-fold in macrophages and epithelial alveolar cells, respectively. The in vivo study demonstrated that anionic PLGA NCs were retained in all lung lobules after 1 h of being intratracheally instilled, and were found to accumulate in lung macrophages after 24 h, making those nanocarriers especially suitable as a pulmonary immunomodulatory delivery system with a marked translational character.

16.
J Clin Med ; 11(10)2022 May 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1847368

ABSTRACT

Patients with COVID-19 may complicate their evolution with thromboembolic events. Incidence of thromboembolic complications are high and also, patients with the critically-ill disease showed evidence of microthrombi and microangiopathy in the lung probably due to endothelial damage by directly and indirectly injured endothelial and epithelial cells. Pulmonary embolism, deep venous thrombosis and arterial embolism were reported in patients with COVID-19, and several analytical abnormal coagulation parameters have been described as well. D-dimer, longer coagulation times and lower platelet counts have been associated with poor outcomes. The use of anticoagulation or high doses of prophylactic heparin is controversial. Despite the use of anticoagulation or high prophylactic dose of heparin have been associated with better outcomes in observational studies, only in patients with non-critically ill disease benefits for anticoagulation was observed. In critically-ill patient, anticoagulation was not associated with better outcomes. Other measures such as antiplatelet therapy, fibrinolytic therapy or nebulized anticoagulants are being studied in ongoing clinical trials.

17.
J Intern Med ; 292(3): 438-449, 2022 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1774862

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Previous studies reported regional differences in end-of-life care (EoLC) for critically ill patients in Europe. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this post-hoc analysis of the prospective multicentre COVIP study was to investigate variations in EoLC practices among older patients in intensive care units during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. METHODS: A total of 3105 critically ill patients aged 70 years and older were enrolled in this study (Central Europe: n = 1573; Northern Europe: n = 821; Southern Europe: n = 711). Generalised estimation equations were used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aORs) to population averages. Data were adjusted for patient-specific variables (demographic, disease-specific) and health economic data (gross domestic product, health expenditure per capita). The primary outcome was any treatment limitation, and 90-day mortality was a secondary outcome. RESULTS: The frequency of the primary endpoint (treatment limitation) was highest in Northern Europe (48%), intermediate in Central Europe (39%) and lowest in Southern Europe (24%). The likelihood for treatment limitations was lower in Southern than in Central Europe (aOR 0.39; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.21-0.73; p = 0.004), even after multivariable adjustment, whereas no statistically significant differences were observed between Northern and Central Europe (aOR 0.57; 95%CI 0.27-1.22; p = 0.15). After multivariable adjustment, no statistically relevant mortality differences were found between Northern and Central Europe (aOR 1.29; 95%CI 0.80-2.09; p = 0.30) or between Southern and Central Europe (aOR 1.07; 95%CI 0.66-1.73; p = 0.78). CONCLUSION: This study shows a north-to-south gradient in rates of treatment limitation in Europe, highlighting the heterogeneity of EoLC practices across countries. However, mortality rates were not affected by these results.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Terminal Care , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/therapy , Critical Illness/epidemiology , Critical Illness/therapy , Europe/epidemiology , Humans , Intensive Care Units , Prospective Studies
18.
JMIR Med Inform ; 10(3): e32949, 2022 Mar 31.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1770908

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 is challenging health care systems globally. The disease disproportionately affects the elderly population, both in terms of disease severity and mortality risk. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate machine learning-based prognostication models for critically ill elderly COVID-19 patients, which dynamically incorporated multifaceted clinical information on evolution of the disease. METHODS: This multicenter cohort study (COVIP study) obtained patient data from 151 intensive care units (ICUs) from 26 countries. Different models based on the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) were derived as baseline models that included admission variables only. We subsequently included clinical events and time-to-event as additional variables to derive the final models using the same algorithms and compared their performance with that of the baseline group. Furthermore, we derived baseline and final models on a European patient cohort, which were externally validated on a non-European cohort that included Asian, African, and US patients. RESULTS: In total, 1432 elderly (≥70 years old) COVID-19-positive patients admitted to an ICU were included for analysis. Of these, 809 (56.49%) patients survived up to 30 days after admission. The average length of stay was 21.6 (SD 18.2) days. Final models that incorporated clinical events and time-to-event information provided superior performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.81; 95% CI 0.804-0.811), with respect to both the baseline models that used admission variables only and conventional ICU prediction models (SOFA score, P<.001). The average precision increased from 0.65 (95% CI 0.650-0.655) to 0.77 (95% CI 0.759-0.770). CONCLUSIONS: Integrating important clinical events and time-to-event information led to a superior accuracy of 30-day mortality prediction compared with models based on the admission information and conventional ICU prediction models. This study shows that machine-learning models provide additional information and may support complex decision-making in critically ill elderly COVID-19 patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04321265; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04321265.

19.
J Crit Care ; 69: 154022, 2022 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1768292

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: We determined the incidence of hypercapnia and associations with outcome in invasively ventilated COVID-19 patients. METHODS: Posthoc analysis of a national, multicenter, observational study in 22 ICUs. Patients were classified as 'hypercapnic' or 'normocapnic' in the first three days of invasive ventilation. Primary endpoint was prevalence of hypercapnia. Secondary endpoints were ventilator parameters, length of stay (LOS) in ICU and hospital, and mortality in ICU, hospital, at day 28 and 90. RESULTS: Of 824 patients, 485 (58.9%) were hypercapnic. Hypercapnic patients had a higher BMI and had COPD, severe ARDS and venous thromboembolic events more often. Hypercapnic patients were ventilated with lower tidal volumes, higher respiratory rates, higher driving pressures, and with more mechanical power of ventilation. Hypercapnic patients had comparable minute volumes but higher ventilatory ratios than normocapnic patients. In hypercapnic patients, ventilation and LOS in ICU and hospital was longer, but mortality was comparable to normocapnic patients. CONCLUSION: Hypercapnia occurs often in invasively ventilated COVID-19 patients. Main differences between hypercapnic and normocapnic patients are severity of ARDS, occurrence of venous thromboembolic events, and a higher ventilation ratio. Hypercapnia has an association with duration of ventilation and LOS in ICU and hospital, but not with mortality.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Respiratory Distress Syndrome , Respiratory Insufficiency , COVID-19/complications , COVID-19/therapy , Humans , Hypercapnia , Respiration, Artificial/adverse effects , Respiratory Distress Syndrome/therapy , Respiratory Insufficiency/etiology
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