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1.
Economic Systems ; : 100944, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1664866

ABSTRACT

It is not directly observable how effectively a society practices social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper proposes a novel and robust methodology to identify latent social distancing at the country level. We extend the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased (SEIRD) model with a time-varying, country-specific distancing term, and derive the Model-Inferred DIStancing index (MIDIS) for 120 countries using readily available epidemiological data. The index is not sensitive to measurement errors in epidemiological data and to the values assigned to model parameters. The evolution of MIDIS shows that countries exhibit diverse patterns of distancing during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic—a persistent increase, a trendless fluctuation, and an inverted U are among these patterns. We then implement regression analyses using MIDIS and obtain the following results: First, MIDIS is strongly correlated with available mobility statistics, at least for high income countries. Second, MIDIS is also strongly associated with (i) the stringency of lockdown measures (governmental response), (ii) the cumulative number of deceased persons (behavioral response), and (iii) the time that passed since the first confirmed case (temporal response). Third, there is statistically significant regional variation in MIDIS, and more developed societies achieve higher distancing levels. Finally, MIDIS is used to explain output losses experienced during the pandemic, and it is shown that there is a robust positive relationship between the two, with sizable economic effects.

2.
Egyptian Journal of Chest Diseases and Tuberculosis ; 70(5):23-26, 2021.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-1374580

ABSTRACT

Children of all ages can get COVID-19. However, through examinations, studies have found that COVID-19 presents itself differently in children than in adults;it appears to be milder in children, but there is a higher chance of severe disease in high-risk children. The pediatric multi-system inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C) is a severe complication of COVID-19 in children with different case definitions. Breast eeding is an important issue concerning mothers infected with COVID-19 as there is a debate about whether rooming in or separation is the preferrable method for the child's wellbeing.

3.
Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases ; 80(SUPPL 1):949, 2021.
Article in English | EMBASE | ID: covidwho-1358910

ABSTRACT

Background: A large proportion of patients present to the paediatric emergency department (PED) with non-urgent problems [1]. With growing pressures on services, there is a need to reduce unnecessary attendances. Children with rheumatological conditions may attend PED with flares of their condition or unrelated presentations. These patients may be immunosuppressed due to steroid, disease-modifying or biologic therapy;PED attendance may therefore pose a serious infection risk. Objectives: To evaluate why children with rheumatological conditions attend the PED and whether these attendances are avoidable. Methods: This study was run in Royal Manchester Children's Hospital, a UK hospital with a PED and tertiary paediatric rheumatology services. Patients under rheumatology who attend PED are usually seen directly. A dataset of all patients referred directly to paediatric rheumatology between 01/01/19 and 31/12/19 was obtained from electronic records (n=59). The age, sex and reason for attendence were collected, as well whether they were admitted/discharged. Further data on management was collected from discharge letters for those with joint pain/swelling. Results: This cohort had 36 females and 23 males, with an average age of 11.9 years (range 1-18). 28 were discharged (47.5%) and 30 were admitted (50.8%). One patient left before being seen. The average waiting time was 3.97 hours. Table 1 summarises reasons for attendance to PED and final outcome. The most common reason for attendance was joint pain/swelling (n=14, 23.7%). Of these, nine were discharged with advice on analgesia or steroid dosing and for early review in clinic. There was no documentation on whether there had been any attempt to access the available rheumatology helpline prior to attending PED. Non-rheumatology-related reasons for attendance are also shown in Table 1, and notably include 20 patients with infections, 75% of whom were admitted to hospital. Chicken pox was the second most common reason for attendance (n=5, 8.5%);all patients attending with chicken pox or shingles (n=6) were admitted. Conclusion: Our study shows that attendance to PED with joint pain/swelling is usually avoidable in patients known to paediatric rheumatology services. Appropriate alternative services are needed to reduce hospital attendances;nurse-led helplines are beneficial, but still face some challenges in both availability and accessibility [2]. It is also important that patients and parents are given action plans for acute flares, which would ideally involve early clinic review rather than PED attendance. Our data also showed that patients are spending a long time waiting in PED, which needs to be avoided particularly in the context of immunosuppression. This is especially poignant now in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. Direct referral to rheumatology with non-rheumatological problems likely reflects a desire for specialist advice in the context of complex conditions and medications, for example with regards to infections whilst on immunosuppressive medications, or uncertainty about whether new symptoms are related to the underlying condition. Expansion of helpline services and new approaches such as remote consultations should be explored.

4.
Journal of Investigative Medicine ; 69(1):117-118, 2021.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-1079092
5.
Egyptian Pediatric Association Gazette ; 68(1), 2020.
Article in English | EMBASE | ID: covidwho-742475

ABSTRACT

Background: Outbreak of a novel corona virus was reported in China on December 2019. Sooner, a global spread was reported and WHO announced a public health emergency of international concern and then declared it as a pandemic. Egypt announced the first case on February 14, 2020, and since that time, cases are increasing. Main body: There is increasing need to simplify the practical approach for pediatricians and other health care workers in a step wise manner;how to deal with COVID-19 cases, how to care for the newborn babies as regards to breastfeeding, and how to ensure safety of health care workers assess their risk of infection and management accordingly. A national practical approach guideline was prepared including case definition, diagnosis, and management of pediatric COVID-19 suspected and confirmed cases in an algorithmic pattern. Conclusion: Up to the current knowledge, this is a simple and practical guidance for clinical management of children during the current pandemic.

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