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EuropePMC; 2020.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-313484


Understanding the number of individuals who have been infected with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, and the extent to which social distancing policies have been effective at limiting its spread, are critical for effective policy going forward. Here we present estimates of the extent to which confirmed cases in the United States undercount the true number of infections, and analyze how effective social distancing measures have been at mitigating or suppressing the virus. Our analysis uses a Bayesian model of COVID-19 fatalities with a likelihood based on an underlying differential equation model of the epidemic. We provide analysis for four states with significant epidemics: California, Florida, New York, and Washington. Our short-term forecasts suggest that these states may be following somewhat different trajectories for growth of the number of cases and fatalities.

Int J Lab Hematol ; 43(5): 1243-1251, 2021 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1211529


INTRODUCTION: Although factors such as age, sex, diabetes, obesity and changes in certain laboratory investigations are important prognostic factors in COVID-19 infection, these may not apply to all ethnic/racial groups. We hypothesized differences in routine biochemistry and haematology indices in Caucasian and a combined group of Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) patients who tested positive for COVID-19 who died, compared to survivors. METHODS: We tested our hypothesis in 445 patients (229 Caucasian, 216 BAME) admitted to secondary care with proven COVID-19 infection, in whom standard routine laboratory indices were collected on admission. RESULTS: After 28 weeks, 190 (42.7%) had died within 28 days of COVID diagnosis (97 Caucasians [42.4%], 93 BAMEs [43.1%], P = .923). A general linear model analysis found the ethnicity interaction with mortality to be significant for fibrinogen, ferritin and HbA1 c (after controlling for age). In a multivariate analysis, a neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio > 7.4 and a urea/albumin ratio > 0.28 increased the odds of death for both the Caucasian and the BAME group. Additional factors increasing the odds ratio in the BAME group included age >60 years and being diabetic. CONCLUSION: Neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio and urea/albumin ratio are simple metrics that predict death to aid clinicians in determining the prognosis of COVID-19 and help provide early intensive intervention to reduce mortality. In the BAME groups, intensive monitoring even at younger age and those with diabetes may also help reduce COVID-19 associated mortality.

COVID-19/blood , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/epidemiology , Female , Ferritins/analysis , Fibrinogen/analysis , Glycated Hemoglobin A/analysis , Humans , Leukocyte Count , Male , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Serum Albumin, Human/analysis , Urea/blood
Signif (Oxf) ; 17(3): 12-14, 2020 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-601826


Patrick Ball explains the SIR model.