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1.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 21136, 2021 10 27.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1493228

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic is impressively challenging the healthcare system. Several prognostic models have been validated but few of them are implemented in daily practice. The objective of the study was to validate a machine-learning risk prediction model using easy-to-obtain parameters to help to identify patients with COVID-19 who are at higher risk of death. The training cohort included all patients admitted to Fondazione Policlinico Gemelli with COVID-19 from March 5, 2020, to November 5, 2020. Afterward, the model was tested on all patients admitted to the same hospital with COVID-19 from November 6, 2020, to February 5, 2021. The primary outcome was in-hospital case-fatality risk. The out-of-sample performance of the model was estimated from the training set in terms of Area under the Receiving Operator Curve (AUROC) and classification matrix statistics by averaging the results of fivefold cross validation repeated 3-times and comparing the results with those obtained on the test set. An explanation analysis of the model, based on the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), is also presented. To assess the subsequent time evolution, the change in paO2/FiO2 (P/F) at 48 h after the baseline measurement was plotted against its baseline value. Among the 921 patients included in the training cohort, 120 died (13%). Variables selected for the model were age, platelet count, SpO2, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), hemoglobin, C-reactive protein, neutrophil count, and sodium. The results of the fivefold cross-validation repeated 3-times gave AUROC of 0.87, and statistics of the classification matrix to the Youden index as follows: sensitivity 0.840, specificity 0.774, negative predictive value 0.971. Then, the model was tested on a new population (n = 1463) in which the case-fatality rate was 22.6%. The test model showed AUROC 0.818, sensitivity 0.813, specificity 0.650, negative predictive value 0.922. Considering the first quartile of the predicted risk score (low-risk score group), the case-fatality rate was 1.6%, 17.8% in the second and third quartile (high-risk score group) and 53.5% in the fourth quartile (very high-risk score group). The three risk score groups showed good discrimination for the P/F value at admission, and a positive correlation was found for the low-risk class to P/F at 48 h after admission (adjusted R-squared = 0.48). We developed a predictive model of death for people with SARS-CoV-2 infection by including only easy-to-obtain variables (abnormal blood count, BUN, C-reactive protein, sodium and lower SpO2). It demonstrated good accuracy and high power of discrimination. The simplicity of the model makes the risk prediction applicable for patients in the Emergency Department, or during hospitalization. Although it is reasonable to assume that the model is also applicable in not-hospitalized persons, only appropriate studies can assess the accuracy of the model also for persons at home.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/mortality , Machine Learning , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Blood Cell Count , Blood Chemical Analysis , COVID-19/blood , Cohort Studies , Female , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Models, Statistical , Multivariate Analysis , Oxygen/blood , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , ROC Curve , Risk Factors , Rome/epidemiology
2.
Eur J Ophthalmol ; 31(6): 2886-2893, 2021 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-992309

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The possible transmission of severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by tears and conjunctiva is still debated. METHODS: Main outcome was to investigate the agreement between nasopharyngeal swab (NPs) and conjunctival swabs (Cs) in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. We divided patients into four groups: (1) NPs and Cs both negative (C-NF-), (2) NPs positive and Cs negative (NFs+Cs-), (3) NPs negative and Cs positive (NFs-Cs+), and (4) NPs and Cs both positive (NFs-Cs+). The secondary outcomes were to correlate Cs results with systemic clinical parameters such as: oxygen saturation (SpO2), dyspnea degree (DP), radiologic pulmonary impairment based on chest radiography (XR) or computed tomography (CT), blood chemistry as D-Dimer (D-Dimer), fibrinogen, ferritin, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and C-reactive protein (C-RP). RESULTS: A total of 100 conjunctival swabs in 50 patients with SARS-CoV-2 have been enrolled in this interventional clinical trials. Ocular signs (conjunctivitis) were present in five patients (10%). NPs and Cs highlighted a poor level of agreement (0.025; p = 0.404). Median SpO2 levels are the highest in the NF-C- group (98%) and the lowest (90%) in the group NF+C+ (p = 0.001). Pulmonary impairment was statistically significantly different between NFs and Cs groups (p = 0.019). Pulmonary impairment score increased from NFs-Cs- group (3.8 ± 3.9), to NFs+Cs+ group (6.7 ± 4.1). Intensive care unit patients showed higher COVID-19 Cs positivity in conjunctiva (12.5%) against hospitalized ones (5.8%). CONCLUSIONS: In patients hospitalized for SARS-CoV-2 the virus can be detected in conjunctival swab. Intensive care unit patients may reveal a higher COVID-19 presence in the conjunctiva. The most severe pulmonary impairment can be observed in NFs and Cs positivity. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov registration. ETHICAL COMMITTEE AUTHORIZATION: ID number: 0013008/20.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Conjunctiva/virology , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , COVID-19/diagnosis , Humans , Italy
3.
J Patient Saf ; 16(4): e299-e302, 2020 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-780592

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: On May 12, 2020, a symposium titled "Liability of healthcare professionals and institutions during COVID-19 pandemic" was held in Italy with the participation of national experts in malpractice law, hospital management, legal medicine, and clinical risk management. The symposium's rationale was the highly likely inflation of criminal and civil proceedings concerning alleged errors committed by health care professionals and decision makers during the COVID-19 pandemic. Its aim was to identify and discuss the main issues of legal and medicolegal interest and thus to find solid solutions in the spirit of preparedness planning. METHODS: There were 5 main points of discussion: (A) how to judge errors committed during the pandemic because of the application of protocols and therapies based on no or weak evidence of efficacy, (B) whether hospital managers can be considered liable for infected health care professionals who were not given adequate personal protective equipment, (C) whether health care professionals and institutions can be considered liable for cases of infected inpatients who claim that the infection was transmitted in a hospital setting, (D) whether health care institutions and hospital managers can be considered liable for the hotspots in long-term care facilities/care homes, and (E) whether health care institutions and hospital managers can be considered liable for the worsening of chronic diseases. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: Limitation of the liability to the cases of gross negligence (with an explicit definition of this term), a no-fault system with statal indemnities for infected cases, and a rigorous methodology for the expert witnesses were proposed as key interventions for successfully facing future proceedings.


Subject(s)
Health Personnel/legislation & jurisprudence , Legislation, Hospital , Liability, Legal , Pandemics/legislation & jurisprudence , Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification , COVID-19 , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2
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