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1.
Epidemiol Infect ; 150: e171, 2022 Sep 27.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2076949

ABSTRACT

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) asymptomatic cases are hard to identify, impeding transmissibility estimation. The value of COVID-19 transmissibility is worth further elucidation for key assumptions in further modelling studies. Through a population-based surveillance network, we collected data on 1342 confirmed cases with a 90-days follow-up for all asymptomatic cases. An age-stratified compartmental model containing contact information was built to estimate the transmissibility of symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases. The difference in transmissibility of a symptomatic and asymptomatic case depended on age and was most distinct for the middle-age groups. The asymptomatic cases had a 66.7% lower transmissibility rate than symptomatic cases, and 74.1% (95% CI 65.9-80.7) of all asymptomatic cases were missed in detection. The average proportion of asymptomatic cases was 28.2% (95% CI 23.0-34.6). Simulation demonstrated that the burden of asymptomatic transmission increased as the epidemic continued and could potentially dominate total transmission. The transmissibility of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases is high and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases play a significant role in outbreaks.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Epidemics , Humans , Middle Aged , Computer Simulation , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/transmission , Disease Outbreaks , SARS-CoV-2 , Asymptomatic Infections
2.
J Med Virol ; 94(12): 5746-5757, 2022 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1976742

ABSTRACT

We evaluated and compared humoral immune responses after inactivated coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination among naïve individuals, asymptomatically infected individuals, and recovered patients with varying severity. In this multicenter, prospective cohort study, blood samples from 666 participants were collected before and after 2 doses of inactivated COVID-19 vaccination. Among 392 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2-naïve individuals, the seroconversion rate increased significantly from 51.8% (median antispike protein pan-immunoglobulins [S-Igs] titer: 0.8 U/ml) after the first dose to 96% (median S-Igs titer: 79.5 U/ml) after the second dose. Thirty-two percent of naïve individuals had detectable neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) against the original strain but all of them lost neutralizing activity against the Omicron variant. In 274 individuals with natural infection, humoral immunity was significantly improved after a single vaccine dose, with median S-Igs titers of 596.7, 1176, 1086.5, and 1828 U/ml for asymptomatic infections, mild cases, moderate cases, and severe/critical cases, respectively. NAb titers also improved significantly. However, the second dose did not substantially increase antibody levels. Although a booster dose is needed for those without infection, our findings indicate that recovered patients should receive only a single dose of the vaccine, regardless of the clinical severity, until there is sufficient evidence to confirm the benefits of a second dose.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Viral Vaccines , Antibodies, Neutralizing , Antibodies, Viral , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19 Vaccines , Humans , Prospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , Vaccination , Vaccines, Inactivated
3.
Journal of Shandong University ; 58(10):66-73, 2020.
Article in Chinese | GIM | ID: covidwho-1975293

ABSTRACT

Objective: To explore the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of confirmed cases of coronavirus disease(COVID-19)in Zhejiang Province and to determine the correlation between number of confirmed cases and geographical demographic factors, so as to provide theoretical basis for the prevention and control of COVID-19.

4.
EuropePMC; 2020.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-324176

ABSTRACT

An outbreak of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was identified in China in December 2019, and has spread rapidly to more than 200 countries and areas in four months. A few studies have reported that transmissibility exists during the late incubation period based on one single infection cluster caused by SARS-CoV-2. Here based on 178 SARS-CoV-2 clusters confirmed in Zhejiang Province, we analyzed the epidemic link between all 212 secondary cases with their previous cases, and found 49 secondary cases (from 26 clusters), which were 23.11% (49/212) of the total secondary cases infected from previous cases during the latter’s incubation period. The median days from the last exposure of secondary cases to the onset of previous cases was 2.0 days (IQR: 1.00~5.00 days, 90th percentile: 9.00 days) .This study has shown transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 during the incubation period and indicated that some cases might be infectious soon after they were exposed to a prior transmitter. The results highlight the importance of extending the contact group for medical observation and isolation to those in contact with the index case nine (90th percentile) or more days before the latter’s illness onset, when medical resources were sufficient.

5.
JAMA Intern Med ; 181(10): 1343-1350, 2021 10 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1368408

ABSTRACT

Importance: Much remains unknown about the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. How the severity of the index case and timing of exposure is associated with disease in close contacts of index patients with COVID-19 and clinical presentation in those developing disease is not well elucidated. Objectives: To investigate the association between the timing of exposure and development of disease among close contacts of index patients with COVID-19 and to evaluate whether the severity of the index case is associated with clinical presentation in close contacts who develop COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study used a large, population-based cohort of 730 individuals (index patients) who received a diagnosis of COVID-19 in Zhejiang Province, China, from January 8 to July 30, 2020, along with a contact tracing surveillance program. Field workers visited 8852 close contacts of the index patients and evaluated them for COVID-19 through August 2020. A timeline was constructed to characterize different exposure periods between index patients and their contacts. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the attack rate of COVID-19, defined as the total number of new COVID-19 cases diagnosed among contacts of index patients divided by the total number of exposed contacts. A secondary outcome was asymptomatic clinical presentation among infected contacts. Relative risks were calculated to investigate risk factors for COVID-19 among contacts and asymptomatic clinical presentation among infected contacts. Results: Among 8852 close contacts (4679 male contacts [52.9%]; median age, 41 years [interquartile range, 28-54 years]) of 730 index patients (374 male patients [51.2%]; median age, 46 years [interquartile range, 36-56 years]), contacts were at highest risk of COVID-19 if they were exposed between 2 days before and 3 days after the index patient's symptom onset, peaking at day 0 (adjusted relative risk [ARR], 1.3; 95% CI, 1.2-1.5). Compared with being exposed to an asymptomatic index patient, the risk of COVID-19 among contacts was higher when they were exposed to index patients with mild (ARR, 4.0; 95% CI, 1.8-9.1) and moderate (ARR, 4.3; 95% CI, 1.9-9.7) cases of COVID-19. As index case severity increased, infected contacts were less likely to be asymptomatic (exposed to patient with mild COVID-19: ARR, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.1-0.9; exposed to patient with moderate COVID-19: ARR, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.1-0.8). Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study found that individuals with COVID-19 were most infectious a few days before and after symptom onset. Infected contacts of asymptomatic index patients were less likely to present with COVID-19 symptoms, suggesting that quantity of exposure may be associated with clinical presentation in close contacts.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/transmission , Contact Tracing , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , Adult , Aged , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , China , Cohort Studies , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Risk Factors , Symptom Assessment , Time Factors , Young Adult
6.
China CDC Wkly ; 3(19): 405-408, 2021 May 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1346912

ABSTRACT

What is already known on this topic? Contact tracing and testing with isolated medical care of identified cases is a key strategy for interrupting chains of transmission of COVID-19 and reducing mortality associated with COVID-19. At the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, due to test capacity limitations, case finding often started from suspected cases. What is added by this report? The index patient infected 74 individuals who were close contacts that were identified through contact tracing, and exposed individuals were monitored in quarantine with daily polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. All individuals were asymptomatic initially, but all PCR-positive individuals eventually developed symptoms. Infectivity was documented up to 8 days before being confirmed as a symptomatic case, approximately 4 days before turning PCR positive. What are the implications for public health practice? During an outbreak, we suggest tracing close contacts from both PCR-positive individuals and suspected cases, rather than from suspected cases alone. Due to the long period of infectivity before turning PCR positive or developing symptoms, close contacts that had contact with a newly PCR positive case within 4 days should be judged as at risk of being infected; close contacts that had contact within 8 days of a newly symptomatic case should be judged as at risk being infected.

7.
Epidemics ; 36: 100483, 2021 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1306958

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Most countries are dependent on nonpharmaceutical public health interventions such as social distancing, contact tracing, and case isolation to mitigate COVID-19 spread until medicines or vaccines widely available. Minimal research has been performed on the independent and combined impact of each of these interventions based on empirical case data. METHODS: We obtained data from all confirmed COVID-19 cases from January 7th to February 22nd 2020 in Zhejiang Province, China, to fit an age-stratified compartmental model using human contact information before and during the outbreak. The effectiveness of social distancing, contact tracing, and case isolation was studied and compared in simulation. We also simulated a two-phase reopening scenario to assess whether various strategies combining nonpharmaceutical interventions are likely to achieve population-level control of a second-wave epidemic. RESULTS: Our study sample included 1,218 symptomatic cases with COVID-19, of which 664 had no inter-province travel history. Results suggest that 36.5 % (95 % CI, 12.8-57.1) of contacts were quarantined, and approximately five days (95 % CI, 2.2-11.0) were needed to detect and isolate a case. As contact networks would increase after societal and economic reopening, avoiding a second wave without strengthening nonpharmaceutical interventions compared to the first wave it would be exceedingly difficult. CONCLUSIONS: Continuous attention and further improvement of nonpharmaceutical interventions are needed in second-wave prevention. Specifically, contact tracing merits further attention.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Epidemics , Contact Tracing , Humans , Physical Distancing , SARS-CoV-2
8.
China CDC Wkly ; 3(10): 211-213, 2021 Mar 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1074012

ABSTRACT

SUMMARY: What is already known on this topic? Clusters of COVID-19 cases often happened in small settings (e.g., families, offices, school, or workplaces) that facilitate person-to-person virus transmission, especially from a common exposure. What is added by this report? On January 10 and 11, 2021, an individual gave three product promotional lectures in Tonghua City, Jilin Province, that ultimately led to a 74-case cluster of COVID-19. Our investigation determined the outbreak to be an import-related COVID-19 superspreading cluster event in which elderly, retired people were exposed to the infected individual during his promotional lectures, which were delivered in a confined space and lasted several hours. What are the implications for public health practice? Routine activities, such as attending a lecture in a classroom, can provide an environment conducive to COVID-19 superspreading events because respiratory viruses can spread easily and widely. We suggest local government to strengthen infection control management, reduce unnecessary indoor large gathering activities, and promote wearing of masks, especially during wintertime in the north of China. Health education for elderly people should promote use of effective personal protection and emphasize the importance of wearing masks.

9.
J Med Virol ; 92(11): 2804-2812, 2020 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-935146

ABSTRACT

A pandemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection broke out all over the world; however, epidemiological data and viral shedding in pediatric patients are limited. We conducted a retrospective, multicenter study, and followed-up with all children from the families with SARS-CoV-2 infected members in Zhejiang Province, China. All infections were confirmed by testing the SARS-CoV-2 RNA with real-time reverse transcription PCR method, and epidemiological data between children and adults in the same families were compared. Effect of antiviral therapy was evaluated observationally and fecal-viral excretion times among groups with different antiviral regiments were compared with Kaplan-Meier plot. By 29 February 2020, 1298 cases from 883 families were confirmed with SARS-CoV-2 infection and 314 of which were families with children. Incidence of infection in child close contacts was significantly lower than that in adult contacts (13.2% vs 21.2%). The mean age of 43 pediatric cases was 8.2 years and mean incubation period was 9.1 days. Forty (93.0%) were family clustering. Thirty-three children had coronavirus disease 2019 (20 pneumonia) with mild symptoms and 10 were asymptomatic. Fecal SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection was positive in 91.4% (32/35) cases and some children had viral excretion time over 70 days. Viral clearance time was not different among the groups treated with different antiviral regiments. No subsequent infection was observed in family contacts of fecal-viral-excreting children. Children have lower susceptibility of SARS-CoV-2 infection, longer incubation, and fecal-viral excretion time. Positive results of fecal SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection were not used as indication for hospitalization or quarantine.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Feces/virology , SARS-CoV-2/physiology , Virus Shedding , Adolescent , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , COVID-19/transmission , Carrier State/epidemiology , Carrier State/virology , Child , Child, Preschool , China/epidemiology , Family , Female , Hospitalization , Humans , Incidence , Infant , Male , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity
10.
PeerJ ; 8: e10350, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-914776

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Monitoring the reproduction number (Rt ) of the disease could help determine whether there is sustained transmission in a population, but areas with similar epidemic trends could have different transmission dynamics given the risk from imported cases varied across regions. In this study, we examined the Rt of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by taking different dynamics of imported cases into account and compared the transmissibility of COVID-19 at different intervention periods in Hangzhou and Shenzhen. METHODS: We obtained the daily aggregated counts of laboratory-confirmed imported and local cases of COVID-19 infections in Hangzhou and Shenzhen from January 1 to March 13, 2020. Daily Rt and piecewise Rt before and after Wuhan lockdown were estimated, accounting for imported cases. RESULTS: Since the epidemic of COVID-19 in Shenzhen was dominated by imported cases, Rt was around 0.1 to 0.7 before the Wuhan lockdown. After the lockdown of Wuhan and the initialization of measures in response to the outbreak, local transmission was well-controlled as indicated by a low estimated value of piecewise Rt , 0.15 (95% CI [0.09-0.21]). On the contrary, Rt obtained for Hangzhou ranged from 1.2 to 4.9 with a piecewise Rt of 2.55 (95% CI [2.13-2.97]) before the lockdown of Wuhan due to the surge in local cases. Because of the Wuhan lockdown and other outbreak response measures, Rt dropped below unity in mid-February. CONCLUSIONS: Even though Shenzhen had more cases than Hangzhou, local transmission did not sustain probably due to limited transmission from imported cases owing to the reduction in local susceptibles as residents left the city during Chunyun. The lockdown measures and local outbreak responses helped reduce the local transmissibility.

12.
Travel Med Infect Dis ; 36: 101816, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-796347

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Between January 24, 2020 and February 15, 2020, an outbreak of COVID-19 occurred among 335 passengers on a flight from Singapore to Hangzhou in China. This study aimed to investigate the source of the outbreak and assess the risk of transmission of COVID-19 during the flight. METHOD: Using a standardized questionnaire, we collected information on the travelers' demographic characteristics and illness before, during, and after the flight. We also collected data on factors potentially associated with COVID-19 transmission during the flight. RESULTS: A total of 16 COVID-19 patients were diagnosed among all passengers; the overall attack rate was 4.8%. The attack rate among passengers who had departed from Wuhan was significantly higher than that among those who had departed from other places. One passenger without an epidemiological history of exposure before boarding developed COVID-19. During the flight, he was seated near four infected passengers from Wuhan for approximately an hour and did not wear his facemask correctly during the flight. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 transmission may have occurred during the flight. However, the majority of the cases in the flight-associated outbreak could not be attributed to transmission on the flight but were associated with exposure to the virus in Wuhan or to infected members in a single tour group.


Subject(s)
Air Travel , Asymptomatic Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , Adult , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , China/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks , Female , Humans , Male , Masks , Middle Aged , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Singapore/epidemiology , Travel-Related Illness
13.
JAMA Intern Med ; 180(12): 1665-1671, 2020 12 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-738931

ABSTRACT

Importance: Evidence of whether severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), can be transmitted as an aerosol (ie, airborne) has substantial public health implications. Objective: To investigate potential transmission routes of SARS-CoV-2 infection with epidemiologic evidence from a COVID-19 outbreak. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study examined a community COVID-19 outbreak in Zhejiang province. On January 19, 2020, 128 individuals took 2 buses (60 [46.9%] from bus 1 and 68 [53.1%] from bus 2) on a 100-minute round trip to attend a 150-minute worship event. The source patient was a passenger on bus 2. We compared risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection among at-risk individuals taking bus 1 (n = 60) and bus 2 (n = 67 [source patient excluded]) and among all other individuals (n = 172) attending the worship event. We also divided seats on the exposed bus into high-risk and low-risk zones according to the distance from the source patient and compared COVID-19 risks in each zone. In both buses, central air conditioners were in indoor recirculation mode. Main Outcomes and Measures: SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction or by viral genome sequencing results. Attack rates for SARS-CoV-2 infection were calculated for different groups, and the spatial distribution of individuals who developed infection on bus 2 was obtained. Results: Of the 128 participants, 15 (11.7%) were men, 113 (88.3%) were women, and the mean age was 58.6 years. On bus 2, 24 of the 68 individuals (35.3% [including the index patient]) received a diagnosis of COVID-19 after the event. Meanwhile, none of the 60 individuals in bus 1 were infected. Among the other 172 individuals at the worship event, 7 (4.1%) subsequently received a COVID-19 diagnosis. Individuals in bus 2 had a 34.3% (95% CI, 24.1%-46.3%) higher risk of getting COVID-19 compared with those in bus 1 and were 11.4 (95% CI, 5.1-25.4) times more likely to have COVID-19 compared with all other individuals attending the worship event. Within bus 2, individuals in high-risk zones had moderately, but nonsignificantly, higher risk for COVID-19 compared with those in the low-risk zones. The absence of a significantly increased risk in the part of the bus closer to the index case suggested that airborne spread of the virus may at least partially explain the markedly high attack rate observed. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study and case investigation of a community outbreak of COVID-19 in Zhejiang province, individuals who rode a bus to a worship event with a patient with COVID-19 had a higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection than individuals who rode another bus to the same event. Airborne spread of SARS-CoV-2 seems likely to have contributed to the high attack rate in the exposed bus. Future efforts at prevention and control must consider the potential for airborne spread of the virus.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Community-Acquired Infections , Motor Vehicles/statistics & numerical data , SARS-CoV-2 , Transportation/methods , Air Pollution , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/transmission , China/epidemiology , Cohort Studies , Community-Acquired Infections/diagnosis , Community-Acquired Infections/epidemiology , Community-Acquired Infections/prevention & control , Community-Acquired Infections/transmission , Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention & control , Disease Transmission, Infectious/statistics & numerical data , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Risk Assessment , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity
14.
Open Forum Infect Dis ; 7(6): ofaa231, 2020 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-622578

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, the pathogen causing novel coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19), efficiently spreads from person to person in close contact settings. Transmission among casual contacts in settings such as during social gatherings is not well understood. METHODS: We report several transmission events to both close and casual contacts from a cluster of 7 COVID-19 cases occurring from mid-January to early February 2020. A total of 539 social and family contacts of the index patient's, including members of a 2-day wedding and a family party, were contacted and screened through epidemiologic surveys. The clinical progression of all cases is described. RESULTS: We estimate the secondary attack rate among close contacts to be 29% (2 of 7) and for the casual contacts to be 0.6% (3 of 473). The incubation period of our case cluster was 4-12 days (median, 7 days). CONCLUSIONS: Transmission efficiency among close contacts was higher than among casual contacts; however, transmission from second-generation cases may help spread the virus during the incubation period.

15.
Int J Infect Dis ; 96: 128-130, 2020 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-281360

ABSTRACT

Owing to the frequent travel connections between Wuhan and Zhejiang, Zhejiang was the third worst-affected province in China with 1,205 cases confirmed before 26 February 2020. The transmissibility of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease was monitored in Zhejiang, accounting for the transmissions from imported cases. Even though Zhejiang was one of the worst-affected provinces, an interruption of disease transmission (i.e. instantaneous reproduction numbers <1) was observed in early/mid-February after a comprehensive set of interventions combating the outbreak.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , Basic Reproduction Number , COVID-19 , China/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Humans , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2
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