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1.
EuropePMC; 2020.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-312664

ABSTRACT

Background: Prior to Wuhan quarantine in 2020, chunyun , the largest population mobility on this planet, had begun. We quantify impacts of Wuhan quarantine on COVID-19 spread during chunyun at a nationwide and a local level. MethodsDuring the period of January 1 to February 9, 2020, a total of 40,278 confirmed COVID-19 cases from 319 municipalities in mainland China were modelled with the cross-coupled meta-population methods using between-city Baidu migration index. Four scenarios of geographic spread of COVID-19 included the presence of both chunyun and quarantine (baseline);quarantine without chunyun (scenario 1);chunyun without quarantine (scenario 2);and the absence of both chunyun and quarantine (scenario 3). ResultsCompared with the baseline, scenario 1 resulted in 3.84% less cases by February 9 while scenario 2 and 3 resulted in 20.22% and 32.46% more cases by February 9. Investigation of geographic distribution of cases revealed that chunyun facilitated the COVID-19 spread in most but not all cities, and effectiveness of city quarantine was offset by chunyun . Impacts of quarantine of Wuhan during chunyun on the COVID-19 spread demonstrate geographical heterogeneity. ConclusionOur result strongly supports the travel restriction as one of the effective emergency responses and highlight the importance of developing area-specific countermeasures.

2.
BMJ Open ; 11(5): e046157, 2021 05 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1242205

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: We aim to explore and compare the effect of global travel restrictions and public health countermeasures in response to COVID-19 outbreak. DESIGN: A data-driven spatio-temporal modelling to simulate the spread of COVID-19 worldwide for 150 days since 1 January 2020 under different scenarios. SETTING: Worldwide. INTERVENTIONS: Travel restrictions and public health countermeasures. MAIN OUTCOME: The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases. RESULTS: The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases could reach more than 420 million around the world without any countermeasures taken. Under timely and intensive global interventions, 99.97% of infections could be avoided comparing with non-interventions. The scenario of carrying out domestic travel restriction and public health countermeasures in China only could contribute to a significant decrease of the cumulative number of infected cases worldwide. Without global travel restriction in the study setting, 98.62% of COVID-19 cases could be avoided by public health countermeasures in China only compared with non-interventions at all. CONCLUSIONS: Public health countermeasures were generally more effective than travel restrictions in many countries, suggesting multinational collaborations in the public health communities in response to this novel global health challenge.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , China/epidemiology , Humans , Public Health , SARS-CoV-2 , Travel
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