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EuropePMC; 2020.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-312664


Background: Prior to Wuhan quarantine in 2020, chunyun , the largest population mobility on this planet, had begun. We quantify impacts of Wuhan quarantine on COVID-19 spread during chunyun at a nationwide and a local level. MethodsDuring the period of January 1 to February 9, 2020, a total of 40,278 confirmed COVID-19 cases from 319 municipalities in mainland China were modelled with the cross-coupled meta-population methods using between-city Baidu migration index. Four scenarios of geographic spread of COVID-19 included the presence of both chunyun and quarantine (baseline);quarantine without chunyun (scenario 1);chunyun without quarantine (scenario 2);and the absence of both chunyun and quarantine (scenario 3). ResultsCompared with the baseline, scenario 1 resulted in 3.84% less cases by February 9 while scenario 2 and 3 resulted in 20.22% and 32.46% more cases by February 9. Investigation of geographic distribution of cases revealed that chunyun facilitated the COVID-19 spread in most but not all cities, and effectiveness of city quarantine was offset by chunyun . Impacts of quarantine of Wuhan during chunyun on the COVID-19 spread demonstrate geographical heterogeneity. ConclusionOur result strongly supports the travel restriction as one of the effective emergency responses and highlight the importance of developing area-specific countermeasures.

BMJ Open ; 11(5): e046157, 2021 05 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1242205


OBJECTIVE: We aim to explore and compare the effect of global travel restrictions and public health countermeasures in response to COVID-19 outbreak. DESIGN: A data-driven spatio-temporal modelling to simulate the spread of COVID-19 worldwide for 150 days since 1 January 2020 under different scenarios. SETTING: Worldwide. INTERVENTIONS: Travel restrictions and public health countermeasures. MAIN OUTCOME: The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases. RESULTS: The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases could reach more than 420 million around the world without any countermeasures taken. Under timely and intensive global interventions, 99.97% of infections could be avoided comparing with non-interventions. The scenario of carrying out domestic travel restriction and public health countermeasures in China only could contribute to a significant decrease of the cumulative number of infected cases worldwide. Without global travel restriction in the study setting, 98.62% of COVID-19 cases could be avoided by public health countermeasures in China only compared with non-interventions at all. CONCLUSIONS: Public health countermeasures were generally more effective than travel restrictions in many countries, suggesting multinational collaborations in the public health communities in response to this novel global health challenge.

COVID-19 , Pandemics , China/epidemiology , Humans , Public Health , SARS-CoV-2 , Travel