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Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-20021584


BackgroundSevere ill patients with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection progressed rapidly to acute respiratory failure. We aimed to select the most useful prognostic factor for severe illness incidence. MethodsThe study prospectively included 61 patients with 2019-nCoV infection treated at Beijing Ditan Hospital from January 13, 2020 to January 31, 2020. Prognostic factor of severe illness was selected by the LASSO COX regression analyses, to predict the severe illness probability of 2019-CoV pneumonia. The predictive accuracy was evaluated by concordance index, calibration curve, decision curve and clinical impact curve. ResultsThe neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was identified as the independent risk factor for severe illness in patients with 2019-nCoV infection. The NLR had a c-index of 0.807 (95% confidence interval, 0.676-0.38), the calibration curves fitted well, and the decision curve and clinical impact curve showed that the NLR had superior standardized net benefit. In addition, the incidence of severe illness was 9.1% in age [≥] 50 and NLR < 3.13 patients, and half of patients with age [≥] 50 and NLR [≥] 3.13 would develop severe illness. Based on the risk stratification of NLR with age, the study developed a 2019-nCoV pneumonia management process. ConclusionsThe NLR was the early identification of risk factors for 2019-nCoV severe illness. Patients with age [≥] 50 and NLR [≥] 3.13 facilitated severe illness, and they should rapidly access to intensive care unit if necessary.