ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: External validation of the Oldham Composite Covid-19 associated Mortality Model (OCCAM), a prognostic model for Covid-19 mortality in hospitalised patients comprised of age, history of hypertension, current or previous malignancy, admission platelet count <150 x 103/µL, admission CRP ≥100 µg/mL, acute kidney injury (AKI), and radiographic evidence of >50% total lung field infiltrates. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Retrospective study assessing discrimination (c-statistic) and calibration of OCCAM for death in hospital or within 30 days of discharge. 300 adults admitted to six district general and teaching hospitals in North West England for treatment of Covid-19 between September 2020 and February 2021 were included. . RESULTS: Two hundred and ninety-seven patients were included in the validation cohort analysis, with a mortality rate of 32.8%. The c-statistic was 0.794 (95% confidence interval 0.742 - 0.847) vs. 0.805 (95% confidence interval 0.766 - 0.844) in the development cohort. Visual inspection of calibration plots demonstrate excellent calibration across risk groups, with a calibration slope for the external validation cohort of 0.963. CONCLUSION: The OCCAM model is an effective prognostic tool that can be utilised at the time of initial patient assessment to aid decisions around admission and discharge, use of therapeutics, and shared decision-making with patients. Clinicians should remain aware of the need for ongoing validation of all Covid-19 prognostic models in light of changes in host immunity and emerging variants.
ABSTRACT
The definitive care component of the National Disaster Medical System (NDMS) may not be able to effectively manage tens of thousands of casualties resulting from a catastrophic disaster incident or overseas conflict. To address this potential national security threat, Congress authorized the US Secretary of Defense to conduct the NDMS Pilot Program to improve the interoperability, special capabilities, and patient capacity of the NDMS. The pilot's first phase was the Military-Civilian NDMS Interoperability Study, designed to identify broad themes to direct further NDMS research. Researchers conducted a series of facilitated discussions with 49 key NDMS federal and civilian (private sector) stakeholders to identify and assess weaknesses and opportunities for improving the NDMS. After qualitative analysis, 6 critical themes emerged: (1) coordination, collaboration, and communication between federal and private sector NDMS partners; (2) funding and incentives for improved surge capacity and preparedness for NDMS partners; (3) staffing capacity and competencies for government and private NDMS partners; (4) surge capacity, especially at private sector healthcare facilities; (5) training, education, and exercises and knowledge sharing between federal and private sector NDMS partners; and (6) metrics, benchmarks, and modeling for NDMS partners to track their NDMS-related capabilities and performance. These findings provide a roadmap for federal-level changes and additional operations research to strengthen the NDMS definitive care system, particularly in the areas of policy and legislation, operational coordination, and funding.