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2.
Trials ; 23(1): 95, 2022 Jan 31.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1662421

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Child mortality remains unacceptably high, with Northern Nigeria reporting some of the highest rates globally (e.g. 192/1000 live births in Jigawa State). Coverage of key protect and prevent interventions, such as vaccination and clean cooking fuel use, is low. Additionally, knowledge, care-seeking and health system factors are poor. Therefore, a whole systems approach is needed for sustainable reductions in child mortality. METHODS: This is a cluster randomised controlled trial, with integrated process and economic evaluations, conducted from January 2021 to September 2022. The trial will be conducted in Kiyawa Local Government Area, Jigawa State, Nigeria, with an estimated population of 230,000. Clusters are defined as primary government health facility catchment areas (n = 33). The 33 clusters will be randomly allocated (1:1) in a public ceremony, and 32 clusters included in the impact evaluation. The trial will evaluate a locally adapted 'whole systems strengthening' package of three evidence-based methods: community men's and women's groups, Partnership Defined Quality Scorecard and healthcare worker training, mentorship and provision of basic essential equipment and commodities. The primary outcome is mortality of children aged 7 days to 59 months. Mortality will be recorded prospectively using a cohort design, and secondary outcomes measured through baseline and endline cross-sectional surveys. Assuming the following, we will have a minimum detectable effect size of 30%: (a) baseline mortality of 100 per 1000 livebirths, (b) 4480 compounds with 3 eligible children per compound, (c) 80% power, (d) 5% significance, (e) intra-cluster correlation of 0.007 and (f) coefficient of variance of cluster size of 0.74. Analysis will be by intention-to-treat, comparing intervention and control clusters, adjusting for compound and trial clustering. DISCUSSION: This study will provide robust evidence of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of community-based participatory learning and action, with integrated health system strengthening and accountability mechanisms, to reduce child mortality. The ethnographic process evaluation will allow for a rich understanding of how the intervention works in this context. However, we encountered a key challenge in calculating the sample size, given the lack of timely and reliable mortality data and the uncertain impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 39213655 . Registered on 11 December 2019.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Communicable Diseases , Child , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Infant Mortality , Male , Maternal Mortality , Nigeria , Pandemics , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic , SARS-CoV-2
3.
BMJ Glob Health ; 6(8)2021 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1341320

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted global oxygen system deficiencies and revealed gaps in how we understand and measure 'oxygen access'. We present a case study on oxygen access from 58 health facilities in Lagos state, Nigeria. We found large differences in oxygen access between facilities (primary vs secondary, government vs private) and describe three key domains to consider when measuring oxygen access: availability, cost, use. Of 58 facilities surveyed, 8 (14%) of facilities had a functional pulse oximeter. Oximeters (N=27) were typically located in outpatient clinics (12/27, 44%), paediatric ward (6/27, 22%) or operating theatre (4/27, 15%). 34/58 (59%) facilities had a functional source of oxygen available on the day of inspection, of which 31 (91%) facilities had it available in a single ward area, typically the operating theatre or maternity ward. Oxygen services were free to patients at primary health centres, when available, but expensive in hospitals and private facilities, with the median cost for 2 days oxygen 13 000 (US$36) and 27 500 (US$77) Naira, respectively. We obtained limited data on the cost of oxygen services to facilities. Pulse oximetry use was low in secondary care facilities (32%, 21/65 patients had SpO2 documented) and negligible in private facilities (2%, 3/177) and primary health centres (<1%, 2/608). We were unable to determine the proportion of hypoxaemic patients who received oxygen therapy with available data. However, triangulation of existing data suggested that no facilities were equipped to meet minimum oxygen demands. We highlight the importance of a multifaceted approach to measuring oxygen access that assesses access at the point-of-care and ideally at the patient-level. We propose standard metrics to report oxygen access and describe how these can be integrated into routine health information systems and existing health facility assessment tools.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Oxygen , Child , Female , Health Facilities , Humans , Nigeria , Pandemics , Pregnancy , SARS-CoV-2
5.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 17(3): e1008633, 2021 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1119455

ABSTRACT

Existing compartmental mathematical modelling methods for epidemics, such as SEIR models, cannot accurately represent effects of contact tracing. This makes them inappropriate for evaluating testing and contact tracing strategies to contain an outbreak. An alternative used in practice is the application of agent- or individual-based models (ABM). However ABMs are complex, less well-understood and much more computationally expensive. This paper presents a new method for accurately including the effects of Testing, contact-Tracing and Isolation (TTI) strategies in standard compartmental models. We derive our method using a careful probabilistic argument to show how contact tracing at the individual level is reflected in aggregate on the population level. We show that the resultant SEIR-TTI model accurately approximates the behaviour of a mechanistic agent-based model at far less computational cost. The computational efficiency is such that it can be easily and cheaply used for exploratory modelling to quantify the required levels of testing and tracing, alone and with other interventions, to assist adaptive planning for managing disease outbreaks.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Testing/methods , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , Contact Tracing/methods , Epidemics , Models, Biological , Quarantine/methods , SARS-CoV-2 , Basic Reproduction Number/statistics & numerical data , COVID-19/transmission , COVID-19 Testing/statistics & numerical data , Computational Biology , Computer Simulation , Contact Tracing/statistics & numerical data , Epidemics/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Mathematical Concepts , Models, Statistical , Quarantine/statistics & numerical data , Systems Analysis
7.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 17(17)2020 08 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-829699

ABSTRACT

Both climate change and migration present key concerns for global health progress. Despite this, a transparent method for identifying and understanding the relationship between climate change, migration and other contextual factors remains a knowledge gap. Existing conceptual models are useful in understanding the complexities of climate migration, but provide varying degrees of applicability to quantitative studies, resulting in non-homogenous transferability of knowledge in this important area. This paper attempts to provide a critical review of climate migration literature, as well as presenting a new conceptual model for the identification of the drivers of migration in the context of climate change. It focuses on the interactions and the dynamics of drivers over time, space and society. Through systematic, pan-disciplinary and homogenous application of theory to different geographical contexts, we aim to improve understanding of the impacts of climate change on migration. A brief case study of Malawi is provided to demonstrate how this global conceptual model can be applied into local contextual scenarios. In doing so, we hope to provide insights that help in the more homogenous applications of conceptual frameworks for this area and more generally.


Subject(s)
Climate Change , Human Migration , Global Health , Humans , Malawi
8.
Lancet Public Health ; 5(7): e362-e363, 2020 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-459002
10.
Lancet Public Health ; 5(5): e236-e237, 2020 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-14921
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