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J Med Virol ; 94(6): 2402-2413, 2022 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1718416


The aim of this study is to provide a more accurate representation of COVID-19's case fatality rate (CFR) by performing meta-analyses by continents and income, and by comparing the result with pooled estimates. We used multiple worldwide data sources on COVID-19 for every country reporting COVID-19 cases. On the basis of data, we performed random and fixed meta-analyses for CFR of COVID-19 by continents and income according to each individual calendar date. CFR was estimated based on the different geographical regions and levels of income using three models: pooled estimates, fixed- and random-model. In Asia, all three types of CFR initially remained approximately between 2.0% and 3.0%. In the case of pooled estimates and the fixed model results, CFR increased to 4.0%, by then gradually decreasing, while in the case of random-model, CFR remained under 2.0%. Similarly, in Europe, initially, the two types of CFR peaked at 9.0% and 10.0%, respectively. The random-model results showed an increase near 5.0%. In high-income countries, pooled estimates and fixed-model showed gradually increasing trends with a final pooled estimates and random-model reached about 8.0% and 4.0%, respectively. In middle-income, the pooled estimates and fixed-model have gradually increased reaching up to 4.5%. in low-income countries, CFRs remained similar between 1.5% and 3.0%. Our study emphasizes that COVID-19 CFR is not a fixed or static value. Rather, it is a dynamic estimate that changes with time, population, socioeconomic factors, and the mitigatory efforts of individual countries.

COVID-19 , Asia , COVID-19/epidemiology , Europe/epidemiology , Humans , SARS-CoV-2 , Socioeconomic Factors
PLoS Comput Biol ; 17(11): e1009570, 2021 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1595956


Time lags in reporting to national surveillance systems represent a major barrier for the control of infectious diseases, preventing timely decision making and resource allocation. This issue is particularly acute for infectious diseases like malaria, which often impact rural and remote communities the hardest. In Guyana, a country located in South America, poor connectivity among remote malaria-endemic regions hampers surveillance efforts, making reporting delays a key challenge for elimination. Here, we analyze 13 years of malaria surveillance data, identifying key correlates of time lags between clinical cases occurring and being added to the central data system. We develop nowcasting methods that use historical patterns of reporting delays to estimate occurred-but-not-reported monthly malaria cases. To assess their performance, we implemented them retrospectively, using only information that would have been available at the time of estimation, and found that they substantially enhanced the estimates of malaria cases. Specifically, we found that the best performing models achieved up to two-fold improvements in accuracy (or error reduction) over known cases in selected regions. Our approach provides a simple, generalizable tool to improve malaria surveillance in endemic countries and is currently being implemented to help guide existing resource allocation and elimination efforts.

Malaria/epidemiology , Population Surveillance , Guyana/epidemiology , Humans , Models, Statistical , Retrospective Studies
J Antimicrob Chemother ; 76(11): 2854-2862, 2021 10 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1537567


BACKGROUND: The first potential focus for artemisinin resistance in South America was recently confirmed with the presence of the C580Y mutation in the Plasmodium falciparum kelch 13 gene (pfk13) in Guyana. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to strengthen pfk13 monitoring in the Amazon basin countries, to compile the available data and to evaluate the risk of spreading of mutations. METHODS: Sanger sequencing was done on 862 samples collected between 1998 and 2019, and a global map of pfk13 genotypes available for this region was constructed. Then, the risk of spreading of mutations based on P. falciparum case importation between 2015 and 2018 within countries of the Amazon basin was evaluated. RESULTS: No additional pfk13 C580Y foci were identified. Few mutations (0.5%, 95% CI = 0.3%-0.8%) in the propeller domain were observed in the general parasite population of this region despite a high proportion of K189T mutations (49.1%, 95% CI = 46.2%-52.0%) in the non-propeller domain. Case information revealed two patterns of intense human migration: Venezuela, Guyana and the Roraima State in Brazil; and French Guiana, Suriname and the Amapá State in Brazil. CONCLUSIONS: There are few pfk13 mutant foci, but a high risk of dispersion in the Amazon basin, mainly from the Guiana Shield, proportionate to mining activities. Therefore, access to prompt diagnosis and treatment, and continuous molecular monitoring is essential in these geographical areas.

Malaria, Falciparum , Mutation , Plasmodium falciparum , Antimalarials/pharmacology , Antimalarials/therapeutic use , Brazil , Drug Resistance , Humans , Kelch Repeat , Plasmodium falciparum/genetics , Protozoan Proteins/genetics