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1.
SSRN; 2022.
Preprint in English | SSRN | ID: ppcovidwho-333130

ABSTRACT

Background: The epidemiological characteristics and transmissibility of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) may undergo changes due to the mutation of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) strains. The purpose of this study is to compare the differences in the outbreaks of the different strains, with regards to aspects such as epidemiological characteristics, transmissibility, and difficulties in prevention and control. Methods: COVID-19 data from outbreaks of pre-Delta strains, the Delta variant and Omicron variant, were obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Case data were collected from China’s direct-reporting system, and the data concerning outbreaks were collected by on-site epidemiological investigators and collated by the authors of this paper. Indicators such as the effective reproduction number (Reff), time-dependent reproduction number (Rt), rate of decrease in transmissibility (RDT), and duration from the illness onset date to the diagnosed date (DID) / reported date (DIR) were used to compare differences in transmissibility between pre-Delta strains, Delta variants and Omicron variants. A nonparametric test was used to compare differences in epidemiological characteristics and transmissibility between outbreaks of different strains. P < 0.05 indicated that the difference was statistically significant. Results: Mainland China has maintained a “dynamic zero-out strategy” since the first case was reported, and clusters of outbreaks have occurred intermittently. The strains causing outbreaks in mainland China have gone through three stages: the outbreak of pre-Delta strains, the outbreak of the Delta variant, and outbreaks involving the superposition of Delta and Omicron variant strains. Each outbreak of pre-Delta strains went through two stages: a rising stage and a falling stage;Each outbreak of the Delta variant and Omicron variant went through three stages: a rising stage, a platform stage and a falling stage. The maximum Reff value of Omicron variant outbreaks was highest (median: 6.7;ranged from 5.3 to 8.0) and the differences were statistically significant. The RDT value of outbreaks involving pre-Delta strains was smallest (median: 91.4%;[IQR]: 87.30%-94.27%), and the differences were statistically significant. The DID and DIR of all strains accounted for the most in 0 ~ 2 days, with more than 75%. The range of duration for outbreaks of pre-Delta strains was the largest (median: 20 days, ranging from 1 to 61 days), and the differences were statistically significant. Conclusion: With the evolution of the virus, the transmissibility of the variants has increased. The transmissibility of the Omicron variant is higher than that of both the pre-Delta strains and the Delta variant, and is more difficult to suppress. These findings enable us to get a more clear and precise picture of the transmissibility of the different variants in the real world, in accordance with the findings of previous studies. Reff is more suitable than Rt for assessing the transmissibility of the disease during an epidemic outbreak.

2.
Front Public Health ; 9: 689575, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1775810

ABSTRACT

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a single-stranded RNA virus that can weaken the body's cellular and humoral immunity and is a serious disease without specific drug management and vaccine. This study aimed to evaluate the epidemiologic characteristics and transmissibility of HIV. Methods: Data on HIV follow-up were collected in Nanning City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous, China. An HIV transmission dynamics model was built to simulate the transmission of HIV and estimate its transmissibility by comparing the effective reproduction number (R eff ) at different stages: the rapid growth period from January 2001 to March 2005, slow growth period from April 2005 to April 2011, and the plateau from May 2011 to December 2019 of HIV in Nanning City. Results: High-risk areas of HIV prevalence in Nanning City were mainly concentrated in suburbs. Furthermore, high-risk groups were those of older age, with lower income, and lower education levels. The R eff in each stage (rapid growth, slow growth, and plateau) were 2.74, 1.62, and 1.15, respectively, which suggests the transmissibility of HIV in Nanning City has declined and prevention and control measures have achieved significant results. Conclusion: Over the past 20 years, the HIV incidence in Nanning has remained at a relatively high level, but its development trend has been curbed. Transmissibility was reduced from 2.74 to 1.15. Therefore, the prevention and treatment measures in Nanning City have achieved significant improvement.


Subject(s)
HIV Infections , Basic Reproduction Number , China/epidemiology , HIV , HIV Infections/epidemiology , Humans
3.
Frontiers in public health ; 10, 2022.
Article in English | EuropePMC | ID: covidwho-1749552

ABSTRACT

Introduction Modeling on infectious diseases is significant to facilitate public health policymaking. There are two main mathematical methods that can be used for the simulation of the epidemic and prediction of optimal early warning timing: the logistic differential equation (LDE) model and the more complex generalized logistic differential equation (GLDE) model. This study aimed to compare and analyze these two models. Methods We collected data on (coronavirus disease 2019) COVID-19 and four other infectious diseases and classified the data into four categories: different transmission routes, different epidemic intensities, different time scales, and different regions, using R2 to compare and analyze the goodness-of-fit of LDE and GLDE models. Results Both models fitted the epidemic curves well, and all results were statistically significant. The R2 test value of COVID-19 was 0.924 (p < 0.001) fitted by the GLDE model and 0.916 (p < 0.001) fitted by the LDE model. The R2 test value varied between 0.793 and 0.966 fitted by the GLDE model and varied between 0.594 and 0.922 fitted by the LDE model for diseases with different transmission routes. The R2 test values varied between 0.853 and 0.939 fitted by the GLDE model and varied from 0.687 to 0.769 fitted by the LDE model for diseases with different prevalence intensities. The R2 test value varied between 0.706 and 0.917 fitted by the GLDE model and varied between 0.410 and 0.898 fitted by the LDE model for diseases with different time scales. The GLDE model also performed better with nation-level data with the R2 test values between 0.897 and 0.970 vs. 0.731 and 0.953 that fitted by the LDE model. Both models could characterize the patterns of the epidemics well and calculate the acceleration weeks. Conclusion The GLDE model provides more accurate goodness-of-fit to the data than the LDE model. The GLDE model is able to handle asymmetric data by introducing shape parameters that allow it to fit data with various distributions. The LDE model provides an earlier epidemic acceleration week than the GLDE model. We conclude that the GLDE model is more advantageous in asymmetric infectious disease data simulation.

4.
EuropePMC; 2020.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-325265

ABSTRACT

Background: The optimal vaccination is an essential public health strategy to control the pandemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This study aims to simulate the optimal vaccination strategy to control the virus epidemic by developing an age-specific model based on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan City, China.Methods: An age-specific mathematical model based on the data of COVID-19 cases in Wuhan City from December 2, 2019 to March 16, 2020 was developed, with two scenarios for controlling transmission and reducing severity to estimate the effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination strategy.Findings: Before the lockdown of the Wuhan City, the highest transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was among 14-44 years old (effective reproduction number, Reff = 4·28), followed by 14-44 to 45-64 years old (Reff = 2·61), and 14-44 to ≥ 65 years old (Reff = 1·69). We found that the first priority for controlling transmission should be to vaccinate nearly 90% individuals of 14-44 years old, followed by 90% individuals of 45-64 years old. However, the optimal vaccination strategy for reducing severity defined individuals ≥ 65 years old in vaccination priority groups, followed by 14-44 years old groups.Interpretation: The scenario analyses suggested that the optimal vaccination strategy aimed at controlling the transmission of COVID-19 might be to vaccinate about 90% of 15-44 years old individuals;while for reducing severity, the vaccination priority should focus on the older population. Furthermore, we also presented evidence about the heterogeneity of age-specific transmission and vaccination in different areas.Funding Statement: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the Science and Technology Program of Fujian Province.Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

5.
EuropePMC; 2021.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-324421

ABSTRACT

Background: Control measures during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak may have limited the spread of infectious diseases. This study aimed to analyse the impact of COVID-19 on the spread of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in China. Methods: A mathematical model was established to fit the reported data of HFMD in six selected cities in mainland China from 2015 to 2020. The absolute difference (AD) and relative difference (RD) between the reported incidence in 2020, and simulated maximum, minimum, or median incidence of HFMD in 2015-2019 were calculated. Findings: The incidence and Reff of HFMD have decreased in six selected cities since the outbreak of COVID-19, and in the second half of 2020, the incidence and R eff of HFMD have rebounded. The results show that the total attack rate (TAR) in 2020 was lower than the maximum, minimum, and median TAR fitted in previous years in six selected cities (except Changsha city). For the maximum, median, minimum fitted TAR, the range of RD (%) is 42·20-99·20%, 36·35-98·41% 48·35-96·23% (except Changsha city) respectively. Interpretation: Based on the incidence data of six cities from 2015 to 2019, the SEIAR model demonstrated a significant effect on the incidence of HFMD. During the period of COVID-19, the incidence and R eff of HFMD decreased, the prevention and control measures taken during the period of COVID-19, such as school suspension, home quarantine, closing all kinds of leisure places, wearing masks, advocating frequent hand washing, etc., have not only effectively suppressed the spread of COVID-19 epidemic, but also have significantly contributed to the containment of HFMD transmission.Funding Statement: This study was partly supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-005834).Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no conflicts of interests.

6.
EuropePMC; 2020.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-320374

ABSTRACT

Background: In most countries, it is hard to effectively control coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study conducted the most comprehensive evaluation of the effects of pharmacological (like vaccination, pharmacotherapy ) and non-pharmacological (like isolation, social distancing and mask-wearing) interventions taken singly or in combination for the first time globally.Methods: We estimate that across these 12 countries that are different but presentative, interventions prevented or delayed roughly millions of confirmed cases. This study constructs mathematical model, which interventions includes vaccination, pharmacotherapy, isolation, social distancing and mask-wearing , and analyses the effect of these interventions used alone and in combination.Findings: The basic reproduction number (R0) of each country mostly range from 3 to 5. In terms of the effect of single intervention, for countries such as China, South Korea, Thailand, US, South Africa and Algeria, it is preferred to recommend these countries to adopt isolation to prevent and control the second wave of COVID-19 outbreak, while for countries such as Russia, UK, Saudi Arabia, India and Brazil, wearing masks is the best choice. Especially pharmacotherapy can play a good role in Iran. When combinations with different interventions were taken, the situation was different. For US, Brazil and Algeria, the combination of “Vaccination & Isolation & Wearing mask” is recommended in these countries to prevent and control the development of COVID-19, and the combination of “Isolation & Social distancing & Wearing mask” is recommended in UK and China. For the rest, we suggest that Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, India, Thailand and South Africa take the intervention measures of “Vaccination & Medical treatment & Isolation & Wearing mask”, “Vaccination & Medical treatment”, “Vaccination & Social distancing & Wearing mask”, “Medical treatment & Social distancing & Wearing mask”, “Vaccination & Medical Treatment & Isolation”, “Vaccination & Medical Treatment & Wearing mask”, respectively to deal with the second wave of outbreaks that may come by the end of this year.Interpretation: Our model is operable and selective for the prevention and control of epidemic situations in various countries. These findings may help policy makers in the 180+ countries where COVID-19 has been reported around the world to identify the most effective and socioeconomically acceptable measures to prevent and control the second wave of COVID-19 epidemic, and inform if when these policies should be deployed, intensified or replaced.Funding: This study was partly supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-005834), the Science and Technology Program of Fujian Province (No: 2020Y0002), the Xiamen New Coronavirus Prevention and Control Emergency Tackling Special Topic Program (No: 3502Z2020YJ03), and the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics (SKLVD2019KF005).Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

7.
EuropePMC; 2020.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-315496

ABSTRACT

Background: Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes an immense disease burden. Only drugs or vaccines can eliminate the virus. Methods: We adopted our age-specific transmission model by susceptible-exposed-infectious -critically ill-asymptomatic-removed (SEICAR) model. Effects of different drug types were simulated by changing transmission rate (β), critical case fatality rate (fc), and disease duration of each age group. Evaluation indexes were based on outbreak duration(OD), cumulative number of cases(CNC), total attack rate(TAR), peak date(PD), number of peak cases(NPC), and case fatality rate(f). Findings: When without intervention, changing in β and disease duration, as the age increased, OD decreased, TAR increased, PD advanced, CCN and NPC initially increased and then decreased, while f decreased first and then increased. When disease duration and β remained unchanged, changing fc did not affect the epidemic. All age groups had 40% shorter disease duration but unchanged fc, while β was reduced by 60%, which reduced TAR of group 1 (≤14 years) from 2·35% to 0·09%;f of group 4 (≥65 years) was reduced from 1·04% to 0·05%. Interpretation: Drugs had different age-dependent effects. If a drug can control the disease duration or β of all age groups, younger people would have the fastest transmission control and seniors will have the best improvement in disease severity. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-005834);the Science and Technology Program of Fujian Province (No: 2020Y0002), and the Xiamen New Coronavirus Prevention and Control Emergency Tackling Special Topic Program (No: 3502Z2020YJ03).Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

8.
EuropePMC; 2021.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-308345

ABSTRACT

Doxorubicin (DOX) is a well-known chemotherapeutic drug for most malgnencies including breast cancer and leukemia whilst the usage of DOX is limited owing to its cardiotoxicity. The present study analyzed the effects of crocin on doxorubicin’s cardiotoxic efect in rat myocardium and searched their mechanistic interaction in the pathogenesis of DOX-induced myocardial toxicity. Forty rats were divided into four groups;(a) control (received normal saline as a dose of 1 ml/kg by ip for 15 days), (b) Crocin (received crocin as a dose of 40 mg/kg/24h by ip for 15 days), (c) DOX (received DOX as a dose of 2 mg/kg/48h by ip in six injection, cumulative dose 12 mg/kg), and (d) DOX+Crocin (received DOX as a dose of 2 mg/kg/48h by ip in six injection and crocin as a dose of 40 mg/kg/24h ip for 15 days). According to the present study, DOX administration caused significant increases in lipid indices (triglyseride, low-dencity lipoproteins and very low-dencity lipoproteins) as well as cardiac markers (Creatine kinase-muscle/brain and Cardiac Troponin I). Morever, DOX caused significant increases in oxidative stress parameters (malondialdehyde and total oxidant status) as well as decreases in antioxidant defense systems (glutathione, superoxide dismutase, catalase and total antioxidant status). The present study also demonstrated that co-administration of crocin with DOX significantly ameliorated the lipid profile and biochemical parameters in rats receiving DOX. The results were supported by histopathological and immunohistochemical evaluations. Taken together, our results reveal that crocin might be a cardioprotective agent in DOX treated patients for cancer.

9.
EuropePMC; 2020.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-312633

ABSTRACT

Background: With the strength intervention of China, the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) had a great control effect. The measures may influence the development and progression of others infectious diseases. Method: The data of daily coronavirus virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) confirmed cases from January 3, 2020 to April 30, 2020 and natural focal disease cases from January, 2005 to April, 2020 were collected from Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Jiangsu Provincial CDC). We describe and compare the data of natural focal diseases from January to April, 2020 with the same months from 2015 to 2019 in the four aspects: trend of incidence, regional, age and sex distribution. Nonparametric tests were used to analyzed to the difference between the duration from onset of illness to date of diagnosis of natural focal diseases and the same period of the previous year. Results: : The incidence of malaria in February (0.9 per 10,000,000 people), March (0.3 per 10,000,000 people) and April (0.1 per 10,000,000 people) 2020 less than the lower limit for range of February (1.6-4.5 per 10,000,000 people), March (0.8-3.3 per 10,000,000 people) and April (1.0-2.9 per 10,000,000 people) from 2015 to 2019 respectively. The incidence of brucellosis in February was 0.9 (per 10,000,000 people), less than the lower limit for the range from 2015 to 2019 (1.6-4.5 per 10,000,000 people). The incidence of hemorrhagic fever (HF) in March was 1.0 (per 10,000,000 people), less than the lower limit for the range from 2015 to 2019 (1.4-2.6 per 10,000,000 people). However, the incidence of Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome (SEFT) in March was 0.3 (per 10,000,000 people), higher than the upper limit for the range from 2015 to 2019 (0.0-0.1 per 10,000,000 people). Furthermore, we respectively observed the incidence with various degree of reduction in male, 20-60 years old and both rural and urban areas. Conclusions: : In Jiangsu province, the incidence of natural focal diseases decreased during the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020, especially malaria, HF and SEFT. The impact of interventions were felt most by male individuals within the age group of 20-50 years. The interventions for COVID-19 may control the epidemics of natural focal diseases.

10.
Front Public Health ; 9: 799536, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1674410

ABSTRACT

Background: To date, there is a lack of sufficient evidence on the type of clusters in which severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is most likely to spread. Notably, the differences between cluster-level and population-level outbreaks in epidemiological characteristics and transmissibility remain unclear. Identifying the characteristics of these two levels, including epidemiology and transmission dynamics, allows us to develop better surveillance and control strategies following the current removal of suppression measures in China. Methods: We described the epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 and calculated its transmissibility by taking a Chinese city as an example. We used descriptive analysis to characterize epidemiological features for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence database from 1 Jan 2020 to 2 March 2020 in Chaoyang District, Beijing City, China. The susceptible-exposed-infected-asymptomatic-recovered (SEIAR) model was fitted with the dataset, and the effective reproduction number (R eff ) was calculated as the transmissibility of a single population. Also, the basic reproduction number (R 0) was calculated by definition for three clusters, such as household, factory and community, as the transmissibility of subgroups. Results: The epidemic curve in Chaoyang District was divided into three stages. We included nine clusters (subgroups), which comprised of seven household-level and one factory-level and one community-level cluster, with sizes ranging from 2 to 17 cases. For the nine clusters, the median incubation period was 17.0 days [Interquartile range (IQR): 8.4-24.0 days (d)], and the average interval between date of onset (report date) and diagnosis date was 1.9 d (IQR: 1.7 to 6.4 d). At the population level, the transmissibility of the virus was high in the early stage of the epidemic (R eff = 4.81). The transmissibility was higher in factory-level clusters (R 0 = 16) than in community-level clusters (R 0 = 3), and household-level clusters (R 0 = 1). Conclusions: In Chaoyang District, the epidemiological features of SARS-CoV-2 showed multi-stage pattern. Many clusters were reported to occur indoors, mostly from households and factories, and few from the community. The risk of transmission varies by setting, with indoor settings being more severe than outdoor settings. Reported household clusters were the predominant type, but the population size of the different types of clusters limited transmission. The transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was different between a single population and its subgroups, with cluster-level transmissibility higher than population-level transmissibility.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Basic Reproduction Number , China/epidemiology , Cities , Humans
11.
Infect Dis Poverty ; 10(1): 140, 2021 Dec 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1639437

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Reaching optimal vaccination rates is an essential public health strategy to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This study aimed to simulate the optimal vaccination strategy to control the disease by developing an age-specific model based on the current transmission patterns of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China. METHODS: We collected two indicators of COVID-19, including illness onset data and age of confirmed case in Wuhan City, from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. The reported cases were divided into four age groups: group 1, ≤ 14 years old; group 2, 15 to 44 years old; group 3, 44 to 64 years old; and group 4, ≥ 65 years old. An age-specific susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/removed model was developed to estimate the transmissibility and simulate the optimal vaccination strategy. The effective reproduction number (Reff) was used to estimate the transmission interaction in different age groups. RESULTS: A total of 47 722 new cases were reported in Wuhan City from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. Before the travel ban of Wuhan City, the highest transmissibility was observed among age group 2 (Reff = 4.28), followed by group 2 to 3 (Reff = 2.61), and group 2 to 4 (Reff = 1.69). China should vaccinate at least 85% of the total population to interrupt transmission. The priority for controlling transmission should be to vaccinate 5% to 8% of individuals in age group 2 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% of age group 2), followed by 10% of age group 3 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% age group 3). However, the optimal vaccination strategy for reducing the disease severity identified individuals ≥ 65 years old as a priority group, followed by those 45-64 years old. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 85% of the total population (nearly 1.2 billion people) should be vaccinated to build an immune barrier in China to safely consider removing border restrictions. Based on these results, we concluded that 90% of adults aged 15-64 years should first be vaccinated to prevent transmission in China.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , China , Cities , Humans , Middle Aged , SARS-CoV-2 , Vaccination , Young Adult
12.
China CDC Wkly ; 3(50): 1071-1074, 2021 Dec 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1567031

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Vaccination booster shots are completely necessary for controlling breakthrough infections of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in China. The study aims to estimate effectiveness of booster vaccines for high-risk populations (HRPs). Methods: A vaccinated Susceptible-Exposed-Symptomatic-Asymptomatic-Recovered/Removed (SEIAR) model was developed to simulate scenarios of effective reproduction number (R eff ) from 4 to 6. Total number of infectious and asymptomatic cases were used to evaluated vaccination effectiveness. Results: Our model showed that we could not prevent outbreaks when covering 80% of HRPs with booster unless R eff =4.0 or the booster vaccine had efficacy against infectivity and susceptibility of more than 90%. The results were consistent when the outcome index was confirmed cases or asymptomatic cases. Conclusions: An ideal coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) booster vaccination strategy for HRPs would be expected to reach the initial goal to control the transmission of the Delta variant in China. Accordingly, the recommendation for the COVID-19 booster vaccine should be implemented in HRPs who are already vaccinated and could prevent transmission to other groups.

13.
Parasit Vectors ; 14(1): 483, 2021 Sep 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1430472

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: During the period of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, strong intervention measures, such as lockdown, travel restriction, and suspension of work and production, may have curbed the spread of other infectious diseases, including natural focal diseases. In this study, we aimed to study the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control measures on the reported incidence of natural focal diseases (brucellosis, malaria, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome [HFRS], dengue, severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome [SFTS], rabies, tsutsugamushi and Japanese encephalitis [JE]). METHODS: The data on daily COVID-19 confirmed cases and natural focal disease cases were collected from Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Jiangsu Provincial CDC). We described and compared the difference between the incidence in 2020 and the incidence in 2015-2019 in four aspects: trend in reported incidence, age, sex, and urban and rural distribution. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (p, d, q) × (P, D, Q)s model was adopted for natural focal diseases, malaria and severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS), and an ARIMA (p, d, q) model was adopted for dengue. Nonparametric tests were used to compare the reported and the predicted incidence in 2020, the incidence in 2020 and the previous 4 years, and the difference between the duration from illness onset date to diagnosed date (DID) in 2020 and in the previous 4 years. The determination coefficient (R2) was used to evaluate the goodness of fit of the model simulation. RESULTS: Natural focal diseases in Jiangsu Province showed a long-term seasonal trend. The reported incidence of natural focal diseases, malaria and dengue in 2020 was lower than the predicted incidence, and the difference was statistically significant (P < 0.05). The reported incidence of brucellosis in July, August, October and November 2020, and SFTS in May to November 2020 was higher than that in the same period in the previous 4 years (P < 0.05). The reported incidence of malaria in April to December 2020, HFRS in March, May and December 2020, and dengue in July to November 2020 was lower than that in the same period in the previous 4 years (P < 0.05). In males, the reported incidence of malaria in 2020 was lower than that in the previous 4 years, and the reported incidence of dengue in 2020 was lower than that in 2017-2019. The reported incidence of malaria in the 20-60-year age group was lower than that in the previous 4 years; the reported incidence of dengue in the 40-60-year age group was lower than that in 2016-2018. The reported cases of malaria in both urban and rural areas were lower than in the previous 4 years. The DID of brucellosis and SFTS in 2020 was shorter than that in 2015-2018; the DID of tsutsugamushi in 2020 was shorter than that in the previous 4 years. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions for COVID-19 may help control the epidemics of natural focal diseases in Jiangsu Province. The reported incidence of natural focal diseases, especially malaria and dengue, decreased during the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020. COVID-19 prevention and control measures had the greatest impact on the reported incidence of natural focal diseases in males and people in the 20-60-year age group.


Subject(s)
Brucellosis/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Dengue/epidemiology , Malaria/epidemiology , Adult , Age Distribution , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , China/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks , Female , Humans , Incidence , Male , Middle Aged , Physical Distancing , Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome/epidemiology , Travel/statistics & numerical data , Young Adult
14.
China CDC Wkly ; 3(34): 716-719, 2021 Aug 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1366006

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic recently affected Taiwan, China. This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of COVID-19 to predict trends and evaluate the effects of interventions. METHODS: The data of reported COVID-19 cases was collected from April 20 to May 26, 2021, which included daily reported data (Scenario I) and reported data after adjustment (Scenario II). A susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered model was developed to fit the data. The effective reproductive number (Reff ) was used to estimate the transmissibility of COVID-19. RESULTS: A total of 4,854 cases were collected for the modelling. In Scenario I, the intervention has already taken some effects from May 17 to May 26 (the Reff reduced to 2.1). When the Reff was set as 0.1, the epidemic was projected to end on July 4, and a total of 1,997 cases and 855 asymptomatic individuals would have been reported. In Scenario II, the interventions were projected as having been effective from May 24 to May 26 (the Reff reduced to 0.4). When the Reff was set as 0.1, the epidemic was projected to end on July 1, and a total of 1,482 cases and 635 asymptomatic individuals would have been reported. CONCLUSION: The epidemic of COVID-19 was projected to end after at least one month, even if the most effective interventions were applied in Taiwan, China. Although there were some positive effects of intervention in Taiwan, China.

15.
Drug Evaluation Research ; 43(6):1003-1007, 2020.
Article in Chinese | GIM | ID: covidwho-1352924

ABSTRACT

Objective: This paper explores the management of donated drugs in public health emergencies, and establishes a set of operational management methods for donated drugs, so as to provide reference for the following similar events. Methods Review the relevant literature and management methods of donated drugs, summarize the management models and problems of donated drugs in other medical institutions, and formulate the selection list and management methods of donated medicines for New Crown Pneumonia to guide the donated medicines management work in our hospital by referring the new coronavirus pneumonia prevention and control program issued by the General Office of the National Health and Health Commission and our hospital's outpatient diagnosis and treatment program. Results A set of operational management measures for donated drugs was established, It includes the establishment and improvement of covid-19 donation drug management team, the development of donation drug selection catalog, donation drug receiving and qualification verification, the storage, distribution and use of donated drugs, donation drug accounting management and publicity, and the treatment of some remaining donated drugs. The total utilization rate of donated drugs was 86.64%. Conclusion In public health emergencies, Chinese pharmacists have accumulated a lot of experience in the management of donated drugs, and put forward some good management strategies. The development of guidelines for the selection and use of donated drugs and the informatization and systematization of the management of donated drugs need to be further strengthened and promoted.

16.
Drug Evaluation Research ; 43(4):601-605, 2020.
Article in Chinese | GIM | ID: covidwho-1352918

ABSTRACT

New coronavirus pneumonia is menacing, and patients with new coronavirus pneumonia combined with other underlying diseases are more at risk. Glycemic control level directly affects the body's immune response and body state. Its low immune status is extremely likely to increase the risk of illness. Infected patients are more likely to aggravate the infection and further cause cytokine storms. Therefore, patients with new type of coronavirus infection and type 2 diabetes need better blood glucose control and management while treating new type of coronavirus infection. This article combines the research on the rational use of diabetes and analyzes the characteristics of the existing clinical data of COVID-19 to explore the pharmacological practice mode and medication monitoring strategy of this special patient. It is hoped to provide COVID-19 patients with diabetes with a more optimized and reasonable medication regimen and improve the clinical medication level.

17.
Journal of Safety Science and Resilience ; 2021.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1267758

ABSTRACT

Control measures during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak may have limited the spread of infectious diseases. This study aimed to analyse the impact of COVID-19 on the spread of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in China. A mathematical model was established to fit the reported data of HFMD in six selected cities in mainland China from 2015 to 2020. The absolute difference (AD) and relative difference (RD) between the reported incidence in 2020, and simulated maximum, minimum, or median incidence of HFMD in 2015-2019 were calculated. The incidence and Reff of HFMD have decreased in six selected cities since the outbreak of COVID-19, and in the second half of 2020, the incidence and Reff of HFMD have rebounded. The results show that the total attack rate (TAR) in 2020 was lower than the maximum, minimum, and median TAR fitted in previous years in six selected cities (except Changsha city). For the maximum, median, minimum fitted TAR, the range of RD (%) is 42•20-99•20%, 36•35-98•41% 48•35-96•23% (except Changsha city) respectively. The preventive and control measures of COVID-19 have significantly contributed to the containment of HFMD transmission.

18.
Infect Dis Poverty ; 10(1): 53, 2021 Apr 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1191906

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes an immense disease burden. Although public health countermeasures effectively controlled the epidemic in China, non-pharmaceutical interventions can neither be maintained indefinitely nor conveniently implemented globally. Vaccination is mainly used to prevent COVID-19, and most current antiviral treatment evaluations focus on clinical efficacy. Therefore, we conducted population-based simulations to assess antiviral treatment effectiveness among different age groups based on its clinical efficacy. METHODS: We collected COVID-19 data of Wuhan City from published literature and established a database (from 2 December 2019 to 16 March 2020). We developed an age-specific model to evaluate the effectiveness of antiviral treatment in patients with COVID-19. Efficacy was divided into three types: (1) viral activity reduction, reflected as transmission rate decrease [reduction was set as v (0-0.8) to simulate hypothetical antiviral treatments]; (2) reduction in the duration time from symptom onset to patient recovery/removal, reflected as a 1/γ decrease (reduction was set as 1-3 days to simulate hypothetical or real-life antiviral treatments, and the time of asymptomatic was reduced by the same proportion); (3) fatality rate reduction in severely ill patients (fc) [reduction (z) was set as 0.3 to simulate real-life antiviral treatments]. The population was divided into four age groups (groups 1, 2, 3 and 4), which included those aged ≤ 14; 15-44; 45-64; and ≥ 65 years, respectively. Evaluation indices were based on outbreak duration, cumulative number of cases, total attack rate (TAR), peak date, number of peak cases, and case fatality rate (f). RESULTS: Comparing the simulation results of combination and single medication therapy s, all four age groups showed better results with combination medication. When 1/γ = 2 and v = 0.4, age group 2 had the highest TAR reduction rate (98.48%, 56.01-0.85%). When 1/γ = 2, z = 0.3, and v = 0.1, age group 1 had the highest reduction rate of f (83.08%, 0.71-0.12%). CONCLUSIONS: Antiviral treatments are more effective in COVID-19 transmission control than in mortality reduction. Overall, antiviral treatments were more effective in younger age groups, while older age groups showed higher COVID-19 prevalence and mortality. Therefore, physicians should pay more attention to prevention of viral spread and patients deaths when providing antiviral treatments to patients of older age groups.


Subject(s)
Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , COVID-19/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2/drug effects , Adolescent , Age Factors , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/virology , China/epidemiology , Humans , Infectious Disease Incubation Period , Middle Aged , Models, Statistical , Young Adult
19.
Carbohydr Polym ; 254: 117232, 2021 Feb 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-932797

ABSTRACT

The pandemic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the infection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is rapidly spreading globally. Clinical observations found that systemic symptoms caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection are attenuated when using the anticoagulant agent heparin, indicating that heparin may play other roles in managing COVID-19, in addition to prevention of pulmonary thrombosis. Several biochemical studies show strong binding of heparin and heparin-like molecules to the Spike protein, which resulted in inhibition of viral infection to cells. The clinical observations and in vitro studies argue for a potential multiple-targeting effects of heparin. However, adverse effects of heparin administration and some of the challenges using heparin therapy for SARS-CoV-2 infection need to be considered. This review discusses the pharmacological mechanisms of heparin regarding its anticoagulant, anti-inflammatory and direct antiviral activities, providing current evidence concerning the effectiveness and safety of heparin therapy for this major public health emergency.


Subject(s)
Anti-Inflammatory Agents/therapeutic use , Anticoagulants/therapeutic use , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , COVID-19/drug therapy , Heparin/therapeutic use , SARS-CoV-2/drug effects , Animals , COVID-19/epidemiology , Cytokine Release Syndrome/drug therapy , Humans , Pandemics
20.
Clin Transl Sci ; 13(6): 1087-1095, 2020 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-742070

ABSTRACT

On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared its assessment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a global pandemic. However, specific anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) drugs are still under development, and patients are managed by multiple complementary treatments. We performed a retrospective analysis to compare and evaluate the effect of low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) treatment on disease progression. For this purpose, the clinical records and laboratory indicators were extracted from electronic medical records of 42 patients with COVID-19 (21 of whom were treated with LMWH, and 21 without LMWH) hospitalized (Union Hospital of Huazhong University of Science and Technology) from February 1 to March 15, 2020. Changes in the percentage of lymphocytes before and after LMWH treatment were significantly different from those in the control group (P = 0.011). Likewise, changes in the levels of D-dimer and fibrinogen degradation products in the LMWH group before and after treatment were significantly different from those in the control group (P = 0.035). Remarkably, IL-6 levels were significantly reduced after LMWH treatment (P = 0.006), indicating that, besides other beneficial properties, LMWH may exert an anti-inflammatory effect and attenuate in part the "cytokine storm" induced by the virus. Our results support the use of LMWH as a potential therapeutic drug for the treatment of COVID-19, paving the way for a subsequent well-controlled clinical study.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/complications , Cytokine Release Syndrome/drug therapy , Heparin, Low-Molecular-Weight/therapeutic use , SARS-CoV-2 , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Blood Coagulation/drug effects , C-Reactive Protein/analysis , COVID-19/immunology , Cytokines/blood , Female , Humans , Length of Stay , Male , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies
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