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Lancet Reg Health Am ; : 100143, 2021 Dec 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1568913


Background: Oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) incidence is rising rapidly among men in the United States of America (USA). We aimed to project the impact of maintaining the current HPV vaccination uptake and achieving 80% national (Healthy People) goal on OPC incidence and burden. Methods: We developed an open-cohort micro-simulation model of OPC natural history among contemporary and future birth cohorts of men, accounting for sexual behaviors, population growth, aging, and herd immunity. We used data from nationally representative databases, cancer registries from all 50 states, large clinical trials, and literature. We evaluated the status quo scenario (the current HPV vaccination uptake remained stable) and alternative scenarios of improvements in uptake rates in adolescents (aged 9-17 years) and young adults (aged 18-26 years) by 2025 to achieve and maintain the 80% goal. The primary outcome was to project OPC incidence and burden from 2009 to 2100. We also assessed the impact of disruption in HPV vaccine uptake during the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: OPC incidence is projected to rise until the mid-2030s, reaching the age-standardized incidence rate of 9·8 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·5-10·1) per 100 000 men, with the peak annual burden of 23 850 (UI, 23 200-24 500) cases. Under the status quo scenario, HPV vaccination could prevent 124 000 (UI, 117 000-131 000) by 2060, 400 000 (UI, 384 000-416 000) by 2080, and 792 000 (UI, 763 000-821 000) by 2100 OPC cases among men. Achievement and maintenance of 80% coverage among adolescent girls only, adolescent girls and boys, and adolescents plus young adults could prevent an additional number of 100 000 (UI, 95 000-105 000), 118 000 (UI, 113 000-123 000), and 142 000 (UI, 136 000-148 000) male OPC cases by 2100. Delayed recovery of the HPV vaccine uptake during the COVID-19 pandemic could lead to 600 (UI, 580-620) to 6200 (UI, 5940-6460) additional male OPC cases by 2100, conditional on the decline in the extent of the national HPV vaccination coverage and potential delay in rebounding. Interpretation: Oropharyngeal cancer burden is projected to rise among men in the USA. Nationwide efforts to achieve the HPV vaccination goal of 80% coverage should be a public health priority. Rapid recovery of the declined HPV vaccination uptake during the COVID-19 pandemic is also crucial to prevent future excess OPC burden. Funding: National Cancer Institute and National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities of the USA.

BMJ Open ; 11(6): e051118, 2021 06 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1288397


INTRODUCTION: Squamous cell carcinoma of the anus is a common cancer among sexual minority men, especially HIV-positive sexual minority men; however, there is no evidenced-based national screening protocol for detection of anal precancers. Our objective is to determine compliance with annual anal canal self-sampling or clinician-sampling for human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a prospective, randomised, two-arm clinical study to evaluate compliance with annual home-based versus clinic-based HPV DNA screening of anal canal exfoliated cells. The setting is primary care community-based clinics. Recruitment is ongoing for 400 HIV-positive and HIV-negative sexual minority men and transgender persons, aged >25 years, English or Spanish speaking, no current use of anticoagulants other than nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and no prior diagnosis of anal cancer. Participants are randomised to either receive a swab in the mail for home-based collection of an anal canal specimen at 0 and 12 months (arm 1) or attend a clinic for clinician collection of an anal canal specimen at 0 and 12 months (arm 2). Persons will receive clinic-based Digital Anal Rectal Examinations and high-resolution anoscopy-directed biopsy to assess precancerous lesions, stratified by study arm. Anal exfoliated cells collected in the study are assessed for high-risk HPV persistence and host/viral methylation. The primary analysis will use the intention-to-treat principle to compare the proportion of those who comply with 0-month and 12-month sampling in the home-based and clinic-based arms. The a priori hypothesis is that a majority of persons will comply with annual screening with increased compliance among persons in the home-based arm versus clinic-based arm. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has been approved by the Medical College of Wisconsin Human Protections Committee. Results will be disseminated to communities where recruitment occurred and through peer-reviewed literature and conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03489707.

Anus Neoplasms , Papillomavirus Infections , Pharmaceutical Preparations , Anal Canal , Anus Neoplasms/diagnosis , Anus Neoplasms/prevention & control , Early Detection of Cancer , Homosexuality, Male , Humans , Male , Papillomavirus Infections/diagnosis , Papillomavirus Infections/prevention & control , Prospective Studies , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic , Wisconsin
Lancet Reg Health Eur ; 1: 100016, 2021 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1026316