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1.
Embase; 2021.
Preprint in English | EMBASE | ID: ppcovidwho-335857

ABSTRACT

Contact tracing, where exposed individuals are followed up to break ongoing transmission chains, is a key pillar of outbreak response for infectious disease outbreaks. Unfortunately, these systems are not fully effective, and infections can still go undetected as people may not remember all their contacts or contacts may not be traced successfully. A large proportion of undetected infections suggests poor contact tracing and surveillance systems, which could be a potential area of improvement for a disease response. In this paper, we present a method for estimating the proportion of infections that are not detected during an outbreak. Our method uses next generation matrices that are parameterized by linked contact tracing data and case line-lists. We validate the method using simulated data from an individual-based model and then investigate two case studies: the proportion of undetected infections in the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in New Zealand during 2020 and the Ebola epidemic in Guinea during 2014. We estimate that only 5.26% of SARS-CoV-2 infections were not detected in New Zealand during 2020 (95% credible interval: 0.243 - 16.0%) but depending on assumptions 39.0% or 37.7% of Ebola infections were not detected in Guinea (95% credible intervals: 1.69 - 87.0% or 1.7 - 80.9%).

2.
Irish Medical Journal ; 114(10), 2021.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1710718

ABSTRACT

Aim COVID-19 presents challenges in ensuring gold standard patient care in hospital settings. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of telephone consultations as a modality for delivery of orthopaedic outpatient clinics, as measured by levels of patient satisfaction. Methods N = 100 orthopaedic trauma patients who received a teleconsultation were retrospectively surveyed. The survey included specific questions related to patient satisfaction scored with a Likert scale, as well as free-form questions facilitating expansion of patient opinion. The responses were quantitatively and qualitatively assessed. Results In 98% (n=95) of cases respondents were either satisfied or very satisfied with telephone consultations irrespective of age group, condition or length of time since commencement of symptoms. Nearly half of all respondents (47%, n=45) would choose teleconsultation again. The provision of clear information and the convenience of teleconsultation were noted as drivers of satisfaction. Discussion Teleconsultation was associated with a high satisfaction rate and may prove an effective tool in delivering remote patient care particularly in less complex cases not requiring physical examination or updated imaging. Further work addressing patient beliefs and expectations regarding telemedicine will be beneficial. © 2021, Irish Medical Association. All rights reserved.

3.
Wellcome Open Research ; 5:143, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1675237

ABSTRACT

Background: As of August 2021, every region of the world has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 196,000,000 cases worldwide.

4.
Wellcome Open Research ; 5, 2021.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1471171

ABSTRACT

Background: As of August 2021, every region of the world has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 196,000,000 cases worldwide. Methods: We analysed COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China to different regions and countries, comparing the region- and country-specific rates of detected and confirmed cases per flight volume to estimate the relative sensitivity of surveillance in different regions and countries. Results: Although travel restrictions from Wuhan City and other cities across China may have reduced the absolute number of travellers to and from China, we estimated that up to 70% (95% CI: 54% - 80%) of imported cases could remain undetected relative to the sensitivity of surveillance in Singapore. The percentage of undetected imported cases rises to 75% (95% CI 66% - 82%) when comparing to the surveillance sensitivity in multiple countries. Conclusions: Our analysis shows that a large number of COVID-19 cases remain undetected across the world. These undetected cases potentially resulted in multiple chains of human-to-human transmission outside mainland China. © 2021 Bhatia S et al.

5.
Antimicrobial Resistance and Infection Control ; 10(SUPPL 1), 2021.
Article in English | EMBASE | ID: covidwho-1448382

ABSTRACT

Introduction: A better understanding of the relative importance of different transmission pathways of SARS-CoV-2 in hospital settings has the potential to help improve targeting of control measures aimed at reducing nosocomial spread. Objectives: To quantify the associations between risks of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection and exposure on the same ward to infected healthcare workers (HCWs), to patients likely to have been infected nosocomially, and to patients with community onset COVID-19. Methods: Ward-level data were collected from four teaching hospitals in Oxfordshire, UK, over an 8 month period in 2020. SARS-CoV-2 infections were identified using both PCR results from symptomatic and asymptomatic testing and serological data coupled with symptom recall. A series of statistical models were used to quantify associations between exposures and probable hospital transmission events. Results: Risk to patients of probable nosocomial acquisition was most strongly associated with exposure to other patients with hospitalacquired SARS-CoV-2 (aOR, 1.76, 95%CI 1.51, 2.04), followed by the presence of an infected HCW on the same ward (aOR 1.45, 95%CI 1.22,1.71). The association with patients with community onset COVID- 19 was weaker (aOR 1.12, 95%CI 0.96,1.26). Transmission to HCWs was associated with exposure to other infectious HCWs and patients with hospital-acquired SARS-CoV-2 (aOR 1.66, 95%CI 1.55,1.78 and aOR 1.45, 95%CI 1.32,1.58 respectively). The introduction of more stringent infection prevention and control measures which included testing all patients for SARS-CoV-2 by PCR on admission and at weekly intervals was associated with substantial reduction in transmission risk to both patients (adjusted odds ratio, aOR 0.25, 95%CI 0.14, 0.42) and HCWs (aOR 0.43, 95%CI 0.34, 0.53). Conclusion: Patients who acquired SARS-CoV-2 in the hospital and, to a lesser degree, infectious HCWs likely working prior to the onset of symptoms, were the most strongly associated with increased risk of SARSCoV- 2 transmission. In contrast, exposure to patients who had acquired SARS-CoV-2 in the community was associated with, at most, modest increases in the daily risk of infection for both healthcare staff and the other patients.

6.
Wellcome Open Research ; 5, 2021.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1225956

ABSTRACT

Background: England, UK has one of the highest rates of confirmed COVID-19 mortality globally. Until recently, testing for the SARS-CoV-2 virus focused mainly on healthcare and care home settings. As such, there is far less understanding of community transmission. Protocol: The REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission (REACT) programme is a major programme of home testing for COVID-19 to track progress of the infection in the community. REACT-1 involves cross-sectional surveys of viral detection (virological swab for RT-PCR) tests in repeated samples of 100,000 to 150,000 randomly selected individuals across England. This examines how widely the virus has spread and how many people are currently infected. The age range is 5 years and above. Individuals are sampled from the England NHS patient list. REACT-2 is a series of five sub-studies towards establishing the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in England as an indicator of historical infection. The main study (study 5) uses the same design and sampling approach as REACT-1 using a self-administered lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA) test for IgG antibodies in repeated samples of 100,000 to 200,000 adults aged 18 years and above. To inform study 5, studies 1-4 evaluate performance characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 LFIAs (study 1) and different aspects of feasibility, usability and application of LFIAs for home-based testing in different populations (studies 2-4). Ethics and dissemination: The study has ethical approval. Results are reported using STROBE guidelines and disseminated through reports to public health bodies, presentations at scientific meetings and open access publications. Conclusions: This study provides robust estimates of the prevalence of both virus (RT-PCR, REACT-1) and seroprevalence (antibody, REACT-2) in the general population in England. We also explore acceptability and usability of LFIAs for self-administered testing for SARS-CoV-2 antibody in a home-based setting, not done before at such scale in the general population. © 2021 Riley S et al.

7.
Wellcome Open Research ; 5:81, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1068026

ABSTRACT

Background: The COVID-19 epidemic was declared a Global Pandemic by WHO on 11 March 2020. By 24 March 2020, over 440,000 cases and almost 20,000 deaths had been reported worldwide. In response to the fast-growing epidemic, which began in the Chinese city of Wuhan, Hubei, China imposed strict social distancing in Wuhan on 23 January 2020 followed closely by similar measures in other provinces. These interventions have impacted economic productivity in China, and the ability of the Chinese economy to resume without restarting the epidemic was not clear. Methods: Using daily reported cases from mainland China and Hong Kong SAR, we estimated transmissibility over time and compared it to daily within-city movement, as a proxy for economic activity. Results: Initially, within-city movement and transmission were very strongly correlated in the five mainland provinces most affected by the epidemic and Beijing. However, that correlation decreased rapidly after the initial sharp fall in transmissibility. In general, towards the end of the study period, the correlation was no longer apparent, despite substantial increases in within-city movement. A similar analysis for Hong Kong shows that intermediate levels of local activity were maintained while avoiding a large outbreak. At the very end of the study period, when China began to experience the re-introduction of a small number of cases from Europe and the United States, there is an apparent up-tick in transmission.

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