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1.
Journal of Medical Internet Research ; 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2022384

ABSTRACT

Background: HIV and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are major global public health concerns. Over 1 million curable STIs occur every day among people aged 15 years to 49 years worldwide. Insufficient testing or screening substantially impedes the elimination of HIV and STI transmission. Objective: The aim of our study was to develop an HIV and STI risk prediction tool using machine learning algorithms. Methods: We used clinic consultations that tested for HIV and STIs at the Melbourne Sexual Health Centre between March 2, 2015, and December 31, 2018, as the development data set (training and testing data set). We also used 2 external validation data sets, including data from 2019 as external “validation data 1” and data from January 2020 and January 2021 as external “validation data 2.” We developed 34 machine learning models to assess the risk of acquiring HIV, syphilis, gonorrhea, and chlamydia. We created an online tool to generate an individual’s risk of HIV or an STI. Results: The important predictors for HIV and STI risk were gender, age, men who reported having sex with men, number of casual sexual partners, and condom use. Our machine learning–based risk prediction tool, named MySTIRisk, performed at an acceptable or excellent level on testing data sets (area under the curve [AUC] for HIV=0.78;AUC for syphilis=0.84;AUC for gonorrhea=0.78;AUC for chlamydia=0.70) and had stable performance on both external validation data from 2019 (AUC for HIV=0.79;AUC for syphilis=0.85;AUC for gonorrhea=0.81;AUC for chlamydia=0.69) and data from 2020-2021 (AUC for HIV=0.71;AUC for syphilis=0.84;AUC for gonorrhea=0.79;AUC for chlamydia=0.69). Conclusions: Our web-based risk prediction tool could accurately predict the risk of HIV and STIs for clinic attendees using simple self-reported questions. MySTIRisk could serve as an HIV and STI screening tool on clinic websites or digital health platforms to encourage individuals at risk of HIV or an STI to be tested or start HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis. The public can use this tool to assess their risk and then decide if they would attend a clinic for testing. Clinicians or public health workers can use this tool to identify high-risk individuals for further interventions.

2.
Lancet Infect Dis ; 22(8): 1231-1241, 2022 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1972394

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Although data from large implementation trials suggest that sexually transmissible infection (STI) risk increases among gay and bisexual men who initiate HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), there are few data on the trends in population-level STI incidence in the years following widespread PrEP implementation. We aimed to describe trends in bacterial STI incidence among gay and bisexual men using PrEP across Australia in the context of broad PrEP availability through Australia's subsidised medicines scheme. METHODS: We analysed linked clinical data from HIV-negative gay and bisexual men aged 16 years or older who had been prescribed PrEP across a sentinel surveillance clinical network, including 37 clinics in Australia, between Jan 1, 2016, and Dec 31, 2019. Patients were included if they had STI testing at least twice during the observation period. Repeat testing methods were used to calculate chlamydia, gonorrhoea, syphilis, and any STI incidence rates during individuals' periods of PrEP use. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for estimated change in incidence per half calendar year (6-month) period were calculated using negative binomial regression. Secondary analyses compared STI incidence rates across individuals initiating PrEP in each year from 2016 to 2019, as well as by length of time using PrEP (per each additional 6 months of PrEP use). FINDINGS: 22 730 men were included in the analyses. During the observation period, 11 351 chlamydia infections were diagnosed in 6630 (30·1%) of 22 034 men over 25 991·2 person-years of PrEP use (incidence rate 43·7 cases [95% CI 42·9-44·5] per 100 person-years). Chlamydia incidence decreased from 48·7 cases per 100 person-years in July-December, 2016, to 42·0 cases per 100 person-years in July-December, 2019 (IRR for estimated change per 6-month period 0·98 [95% CI 0·97-0·99]; p=0·0031). 9391 gonorrhoea infections were diagnosed in 5885 (26·9%) of 21 845 men over 24 858·7 person-years of PrEP use (incidence rate 37·8 cases [95% CI 37·0-38·5] per 100 person-years). Gonorrhoea incidence decreased from 45·5 cases per 100 person-years in July-December, 2016, to 37·2 cases per 100 person-years in July-December, 2019 (IRR 0·97 [95% CI 0·96-0·98]; p<0·0001). Declines in chlamydia and gonorrhoea incidence were most prominent in the first 18 months of observation and incidence was stable thereafter. 2062 syphilis infections were diagnosed in 1488 (7·7%) of 19 262 men over 21 978·9 person-years of PrEP use (incidence rate 9·4 cases [95% CI 9·0-9·8] per 100 person-years). Syphilis incidence increased from 6·2 cases per 100 person-years in July-December, 2016, to 9·8 cases per 100 person-years in July-December, 2019 (IRR 1·08 [95% CI 1·05-1·10]; p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Chlamydia and gonorrhoea incidence among gay and bisexual men using PrEP were highest in the early months of PrEP implementation in Australia and stabilised at slightly lower rates thereafter following wider PrEP uptake. Lower prospective STI risk among people initiating PrEP in later years contributed to the observed trends in STI incidence. Widespread PrEP implementation can contribute to increased STI screening and detection. FUNDING: Australian Department of Health, National Health and Medical Research Council.


Subject(s)
Bacterial Infections , Chlamydia , Gonorrhea , HIV Infections , Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis , Sexual and Gender Minorities , Sexually Transmitted Diseases , Syphilis , Australia/epidemiology , Gonorrhea/epidemiology , HIV Infections/epidemiology , HIV Infections/prevention & control , Homosexuality, Male , Humans , Incidence , Male , Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis/methods , Prospective Studies , Sentinel Surveillance , Sexually Transmitted Diseases/epidemiology , Syphilis/epidemiology
3.
Int J Infect Dis ; 119: 87-94, 2022 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1889471

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a booster strategy in the United States. METHODS: We developed a decision-analytic Markov model of COVID-19 to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a booster strategy of the Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 (administered 6 months after the second dose) among older adults from a healthcare system perspective. RESULTS: Compared with 2 doses of BNT162b2 without a booster, the booster strategy in a 100,000 cohort of older adults would incur an additional cost of $3.4 million in vaccination cost but save $6.7 million in direct medical cost and gain 3.7 quality-adjusted life-years in 180 days. This corresponds to a benefit-cost ratio of 1.95 and a net monetary benefit of $3.4 million. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicates that a booster strategy has a high chance (67%) of being cost-effective. Notably, the cost-effectiveness of the booster strategy is highly sensitive to the population incidence of COVID-19, with a cost-effectiveness threshold of 8.1/100,000 person-day. If vaccine efficacies reduce by 10%, 30%, and 50%, this threshold will increase to 9.7/100,000, 13.9/100,000, and 21.9/100,000 person-day, respectively. CONCLUSION: Offering the BNT162b2 booster to older adults aged ≥65 years in the United States is likely to be cost-effective. Less efficacious vaccines and boosters may still be cost-effective in settings of high SARS-CoV-2 transmission.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Aged , BNT162 Vaccine , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19 Vaccines , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Humans , United States/epidemiology , Vaccination
5.
Int J Infect Dis ; 118: 183-193, 2022 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1838865

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Molecular testing for Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) and Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) is costly. Therefore, we appraised the evidence regarding pooling samples from multiple individuals to test for CT/NG. METHODS: In this systematic review, we searched 5 databases (2000-2021). Studies were included if they contained primary data describing pooled testing. We calculated the pooled sensitivities and specificities for CT and NG using a bivariate mixed-effects logistic regression model. RESULTS: We included 22 studies: most were conducted in high-income countries (81.8%, 18 of 22), among women (73.3%, 17 of 22), and pooled urine samples (63.6%, 14 of 22). Eighteen studies provided 25 estimates for the meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy, with data from 6,913 pooled specimens. The pooled sensitivity for CT was 98.4% (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 96.8-99.2%, I2=77.5, p<0.001), and pooled specificity was 99.9% (95% CI: 99.6-100.0%, I2=62.6, p<0.001). Only 2 studies reported pooled testing for NG, and both reported similarly high sensitivity and specificity as for CT. Sixteen studies provided data on the cost of pooling, reporting cost-savings ranging from 39%-90%. CONCLUSIONS: Pooled testing from multiple individuals for CT is highly sensitive and specific compared with individual testing. This approach has the potential to reduce the cost of screening in populations for which single anatomic site screening is recommended.


Subject(s)
Chlamydia Infections , Gonorrhea , Chlamydia Infections/diagnosis , Chlamydia trachomatis , Female , Gonorrhea/diagnosis , Humans , Male , Mass Screening , Neisseria gonorrhoeae/genetics , Sensitivity and Specificity
6.
Sex Health ; 2022 Apr 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1815688

ABSTRACT

Self-taking oropharyngeal swabs for sexually transmitted infections such as gonorrhoea and chlamydia has become more common during the COVID-19 pandemic to minimise the risk to healthcare workers. However, there have been no standardised guidelines on sampling time for taking an oropharyngeal swab for gonorrhoea and chlamydia testing. We recruited 215 participants at the Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Australia, between November 2021 and January 2022. We asked participants to report the time they spent on self-taking the oropharyngeal swab. The median self-taking sampling time was 8s (IQR=5-12), and the time did not differ between oropharyngeal gonorrhoea positivity (P=0.570) and oropharyngeal chlamydia positivity (P=0.457).

7.
International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases ; 2022.
Article in English | EuropePMC | ID: covidwho-1755869

ABSTRACT

Objectives: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a booster strategy in the US. Methods: We developed a decision-analytic Markov model of COVID-19 to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a booster strategy of Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 (administered 6 months after 2nd dose) among older adults, from a healthcare system perspective. Results: Compared with 2-doses of BNT162b2 without a booster, the booster strategy in a 100,000 cohort of older adults would incur an additional cost of $3.4 million in vaccination cost, but save $6.7 million in direct medical cost and gain 3.7 QALYs in 180 days. This corresponds to a benefit-cost ratio of 1.95 and a net monetary benefit of $3.4 million. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicates that a booster strategy has a high chance (67%) of being cost-effective. Notably, the cost-effectiveness of the booster strategy is highly sensitive to the population incidence of COVID-19, with a cost-effectiveness threshold of 8.1/100,000 person-day. If vaccine efficacies reduce by 10%, 30%, and 50%, this threshold will increase to 9.7/100,000, 13.9/100,000, and 21.9/100,000 person-day, respectively. Conclusion: Offering BNT162b2 booster to older adults aged ≥65 years in the US is likely to be cost-effective. Less efficacious vaccines and boosters may still be cost-effective in settings of high SARS-COV-2 transmission.

8.
Int J Infect Dis ; 115: 154-165, 2022 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1664990

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: The exact characteristics of a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak that trigger public health interventions are poorly defined. The aim of this study was to assess the critical timing and extent of public health interventions to contain COVID-19 outbreaks in Australia. METHODS: A practical model was developed using existing epidemic data in Australia. The effective combinations of public health interventions and the critical number of daily cases for intervention commencement under various scenarios of changes in transmissibility of new variants and vaccination coverage were quantified. RESULTS: In the past COVID-19 outbreaks in four Australian states, the number of reported cases on the day that interventions commenced strongly predicted the size and duration of the outbreaks. In the early phase of an outbreak, containing a wildtype-dominant epidemic to a low level (≤10 cases/day) would require effective combinations of social distancing and face mask use interventions to be commenced before the number of daily reported cases reaches six. Containing an Alpha-dominant epidemic would require more stringent interventions that commence earlier. For the Delta variant, public health interventions alone would not contain the epidemic unless the vaccination coverage was ≥70%. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the importance of early and decisive action in the initial phase of an outbreak. Vaccination is essential for containing variants.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Australia/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks , Humans , Public Health
9.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 18(23)2021 12 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1554891

ABSTRACT

The social measures taken to control the COVID-19 pandemic can potentially disrupt the management of HIV. The objective of this study was to examine the impact of the Australian COVID-19 lockdown restrictions on access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) for people living with HIV in Melbourne. Using data from the Melbourne Sexual Health Centre (MSHC), we assessed the changes in rates of ART postal delivery, controlled viral load, and ART dispensing from 2018 to 2020. The percentage of ART delivered by postage from the MSHC pharmacy was calculated weekly. The percentage of people living with HIV with a controlled viral load (≤200 copies/mL) was calculated monthly. We calculated a yearly Medication Possession Ratio (MPR). The average percentage of HIV ART dispensed through postage for the years 2018, 2019, and 2020 was 3.7% (371/10,023), 3.6% (380/10,685), and 14% (1478/10,765), respectively (Ptrend < 0.0001). Of the 3115 people living with HIV, the average MPR for 2018, 2019, and 2020 was 1.05, 1.06, and 1.14, respectively (Ptrend = 0.28). The average percentage of people with an HIV viral load of <200 copies/mL for the years 2018, 2019, and 2020 was 97.6% (2271/2327), 98.0% (2390/2438), and 99.2% (2048/2064), respectively (Ptrend < 0.0001). This study found that the proportion of controlled viral load and access to ART of people living with HIV in Melbourne was largely unaffected by the COVID-19 lockdown restrictions. This suggests that some of the services provided by the MSHC during the pandemic, such as HIV ART postal delivery, may assist long-term HIV management.


Subject(s)
Anti-HIV Agents , COVID-19 , HIV Infections , Anti-HIV Agents/therapeutic use , Australia/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control , HIV Infections/drug therapy , HIV Infections/epidemiology , Humans , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Viral Load
10.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 18(20)2021 10 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1470849

ABSTRACT

Australia introduced a national lockdown on 22 March 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Melbourne, but not Sydney, had a second COVID-19 lockdown between July and October 2020. We compared the number of HIV post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) prescriptions, HIV tests, and new HIV diagnoses during these lockdown periods. The three outcomes in 2020 were compared to 2019 using incidence rate ratio. There was a 37% and 46% reduction in PEP prescriptions in Melbourne and Sydney, respectively, with a larger reduction during lockdown (68% and 57% reductions in Melbourne's first and second lockdown, 60% reduction in Sydney's lockdown). There was a 41% and 32% reduction in HIV tests in Melbourne and Sydney, respectively, with a larger reduction during lockdown (57% and 61% reductions in Melbourne's first and second lockdowns, 58% reduction in Sydney's lockdown). There was a 44% and 47% reduction in new HIV diagnoses in Melbourne and Sydney, respectively, but no significant reductions during lockdown. The reduction in PEP prescriptions, HIV tests, and new HIV diagnoses during the lockdown periods could be due to the reduction in the number of sexual partners during that period. It could also result in more HIV transmission due to substantial reductions in HIV prevention measures during COVID-19 lockdowns.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , HIV Infections , Australia/epidemiology , Cities , Communicable Disease Control , HIV Infections/diagnosis , HIV Infections/epidemiology , HIV Infections/prevention & control , Humans , Pandemics , Post-Exposure Prophylaxis , SARS-CoV-2
11.
BMJ Open ; 11(10): e052823, 2021 10 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1462970

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: The incidence of Neisseria gonorrhoeae and its antimicrobial resistance is increasing in many countries. Antibacterial mouthwash may reduce gonorrhoea transmission without using antibiotics. We modelled the effect that antiseptic mouthwash may have on the incidence of gonorrhoea. DESIGN: We developed a mathematical model of the transmission of gonorrhoea between each anatomical site (oropharynx, urethra and anorectum) in men who have sex with men (MSM). We constructed four scenarios: (1) mouthwash had no effect; (2) mouthwash increased the susceptibility of the oropharynx; (3) mouthwash reduced the transmissibility from the oropharynx; (4) the combined effect of mouthwash from scenarios 2 and 3. SETTING: We used data at three anatomical sites from 4873 MSM attending Melbourne Sexual Health Centre in 2018 and 2019 to calibrate our models and data from the USA, Netherlands and Thailand for sensitivity analyses. PARTICIPANTS: Published available data on MSM with multisite infections of gonorrhoea. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of gonorrhoea. RESULTS: The overall incidence of gonorrhoea was 44 (95% CI 37 to 50)/100 person-years (PY) in scenario 1. Under scenario 2 (20%-80% mouthwash coverage), the total incidence increased (47-60/100 PY) and at all three anatomical sites by between 7.4% (5.9%-60.8%) and 136.6% (108.1%-177.5%). Under scenario 3, with the same coverage, the total incidence decreased (20-39/100 PY) and at all anatomical sites by between 11.6% (10.2%-13.5%) and 99.8% (99.2%-100%). Under scenario 4, changes in the incidence depended on the efficacy of mouthwash on the susceptibility or transmissibility. The effect on the total incidence varied (22-55/100 PY), and at all anatomical sites, there were increases of nearly 130% and large declines of almost 100%. CONCLUSIONS: The effect of mouthwash on gonorrhoea incidence is largely predictable depending on whether it increases susceptibility to or reduces the transmissibility of gonorrhoea.


Subject(s)
Anti-Infective Agents, Local , Gonorrhea , Sexual and Gender Minorities , Gonorrhea/epidemiology , Gonorrhea/prevention & control , Homosexuality, Male , Humans , Incidence , Male , Models, Theoretical , Mouthwashes , Neisseria gonorrhoeae
12.
Public Health ; 200: 15-21, 2021 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1401801

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an enormous burden on population health and the economy around the world. Although most cities in the United States have reopened their economies from previous lockdowns, it was not clear how the magnitude of different control measures-such as face mask use and social distancing-may affect the timing of reopening the economy for a local region. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between reopening dates and control measures and identify the conditions under which a city can be reopened safely. STUDY DESIGN: This was a mathematical modeling study. METHODS: We developed a dynamic compartment model to capture the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in New York City. We estimated model parameters from local COVID-19 data. We conducted three sets of policy simulations to investigate how different reopening dates and magnitudes of control measures would affect the COVID-19 epidemic. RESULTS: The model estimated that maintaining social contact at 80% of the prepandemic level and a 50% face mask usage would prevent a major surge of COVID-19 after reopening. If social distancing were completely relaxed after reopening, face mask usage would need to be maintained at nearly 80% to prevent a major surge. CONCLUSIONS: Adherence to social distancing and increased face mask usage are keys to prevent a major surge after a city reopens its economy. The findings from our study can help policymakers identify the conditions under which a city can be reopened safely.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Communicable Disease Control , Humans , Masks , Pandemics/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2 , United States/epidemiology
13.
Aust N Z J Public Health ; 45(6): 622-627, 2021 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1388134

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Examine the changes in service delivery Australian public sexual health clinics made to remain open during lockdown. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey designed and delivered on Qualtrics was emailed to 21 directors of public sexual health clinics across Australia from July-August 2020 and asked about a variety of changes to service delivery. Descriptive statistics were calculated. RESULTS: Twenty clinics participated, all remained open and reported service changes, including suspension of walk-in services in eight clinics. Some clinics stopped offering asymptomatic screening for varying patient populations. Most clinics transitioned to a mix of telehealth and face-to-face consultations. Nineteen clinics reported delays in testing and 13 reported limitations in testing. Most clinics changed to phone consultations for HIV medication refills (n=15) and eleven clinics prescribed longer repeat prescriptions. Fourteen clinics had staff redeployed to assist the COVID-19 response. CONCLUSION: Public sexual health clinics pivoted service delivery to reduce risk of COVID-19 transmission in clinical settings, managed staffing reductions and delays in molecular testing, and maintained a focus on urgent and symptomatic STI presentations and those at higher risk of HIV/STI acquisition. Implications for public health: Further research is warranted to understand what impact reduced asymptomatic screening may have had on community STI transmission.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , HIV Infections , Sexually Transmitted Diseases , Australia/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control , Cross-Sectional Studies , HIV Infections/diagnosis , HIV Infections/drug therapy , HIV Infections/epidemiology , Health Services , Humans , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Sexually Transmitted Diseases/diagnosis , Sexually Transmitted Diseases/epidemiology , Sexually Transmitted Diseases/prevention & control
15.
J Urban Health ; 98(2): 197-204, 2021 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1111334

ABSTRACT

There is growing evidence on the effect of face mask use in controlling the spread of COVID-19. However, few studies have examined the effect of local face mask policies on the pandemic. In this study, we developed a dynamic compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission in New York City (NYC), which was the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. We used data on daily and cumulative COVID-19 infections and deaths from the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene to calibrate and validate our model. We then used the model to assess the effect of the executive order on face mask use on infections and deaths due to COVID-19 in NYC. Our results showed that the executive order on face mask use was estimated to avert 99,517 (95% CIs 72,723-126,312) COVID-19 infections and 7978 (5692-10,265) deaths in NYC. If the executive order was implemented 1 week earlier (on April 10), the averted infections and deaths would be 111,475 (81,593-141,356) and 9017 (6446-11,589), respectively. If the executive order was implemented 2 weeks earlier (on April 3 when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended face mask use), the averted infections and deaths would be 128,598 (94,373-162,824) and 10,515 (7540-13,489), respectively. Our study provides public health practitioners and policymakers with evidence on the importance of implementing face mask policies in local areas as early as possible to control the spread of COVID-19 and reduce mortality.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Masks , Humans , New York City/epidemiology , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
16.
Vaccine ; 39(16): 2295-2302, 2021 04 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1104319

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Multiple candidates of COVID-19 vaccines have entered Phase III clinical trials in the United States (US). There is growing optimism that social distancing restrictions and face mask requirements could be eased with widespread vaccine adoption soon. METHODS: We developed a dynamic compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission for the four most severely affected states (New York, Texas, Florida, and California). We evaluated the vaccine effectiveness and coverage required to suppress the COVID-19 epidemic in scenarios when social contact was to return to pre-pandemic levels and face mask use was reduced. Daily and cumulative COVID-19 infection and death cases from 26th January to 15th September 2020 were obtained from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus resource center and used for model calibration. RESULTS: Without a vaccine (scenario 1), the spread of COVID-19 could be suppressed in these states by maintaining strict social distancing measures and face mask use levels. But relaxing social distancing restrictions to the pre-pandemic level without changing the current face mask use would lead to a new COVID-19 outbreak, resulting in 0.8-4 million infections and 15,000-240,000 deaths across these four states over the next 12 months. Under this circumstance, introducing a vaccine (scenario 2) would partially offset this negative impact even if the vaccine effectiveness and coverage are relatively low. However, if face mask use is reduced by 50% (scenario 3), a vaccine that is only 50% effective (weak vaccine) would require coverage of 55-94% to suppress the epidemic in these states. A vaccine that is 80% effective (moderate vaccine) would only require 32-57% coverage to suppress the epidemic. In contrast, if face mask usage stops completely (scenario 4), a weak vaccine would not suppress the epidemic, and further major outbreaks would occur. A moderate vaccine with coverage of 48-78% or a strong vaccine (100% effective) with coverage of 33-58% would be required to suppress the epidemic. Delaying vaccination rollout for 1-2 months would not substantially alter the epidemic trend if the current non-pharmaceutical interventions are maintained. CONCLUSIONS: The degree to which the US population can relax social distancing restrictions and face mask use will depend greatly on the effectiveness and coverage of a potential COVID-19 vaccine if future epidemics are to be prevented. Only a highly effective vaccine will enable the US population to return to life as it was before the pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines/administration & dosage , COVID-19/prevention & control , Masks , Physical Distancing , COVID-19/epidemiology , California , Florida , Humans , Models, Theoretical , New York , Texas , United States/epidemiology
17.
BMC Pulm Med ; 21(1): 64, 2021 Feb 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1102335

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to identify high-risk factors for disease progression and fatality for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. METHODS: We enrolled 2433 COVID-19 patients and used LASSO regression and multivariable cause-specific Cox proportional hazard models to identify the risk factors for disease progression and fatality. RESULTS: The median time for progression from mild-to-moderate, moderate-to-severe, severe-to-critical, and critical-to-death were 3.0 (interquartile range: 1.8-5.5), 3.0 (1.0-7.0), 3.0 (1.0-8.0), and 6.5 (4.0-16.3) days, respectively. Among 1,758 mild or moderate patients at admission, 474 (27.0%) progressed to a severe or critical stage. Age above 60 years, elevated levels of blood glucose, respiratory rate, fever, chest tightness, c-reaction protein, lactate dehydrogenase, direct bilirubin, and low albumin and lymphocyte count were significant risk factors for progression. Of 675 severe or critical patients at admission, 41 (6.1%) died. Age above 74 years, elevated levels of blood glucose, fibrinogen and creatine kinase-MB, and low plateleta count were significant risk factors for fatality. Patients with elevated blood glucose level were 58% more likely to progress and 3.22 times more likely to die of COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: Older age, elevated glucose level, and clinical indicators related to systemic inflammatory responses and multiple organ failures, predict both the disease progression and the fatality of COVID-19 patients.


Subject(s)
Blood Glucose/metabolism , COVID-19/blood , COVID-19/mortality , Disease Progression , Hyperglycemia/blood , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Bilirubin/blood , C-Reactive Protein/metabolism , China/epidemiology , Critical Illness , Female , Fever/virology , Humans , Hyperglycemia/complications , L-Lactate Dehydrogenase/blood , Lymphocyte Count , Male , Middle Aged , Proportional Hazards Models , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , Serum Albumin/metabolism , Time Factors
18.
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr ; 86(2): 153-156, 2021 02 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1050219

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: A second wave of COVID-19 began in late June in Victoria, Australia. Stage 3 then Stage 4 restrictions were introduced in July-August. This study aimed to compare the use of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and sexual practices among men who have sex with men taking PrEP between May-June (post-first lockdown) and July-August (second lockdown). METHODS: This was an online survey conducted among men who have sex with men who had their PrEP managed at the Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Australia. A short message service with a link to the survey was sent to 503 PrEP clients who provided consent to receive a short message service from Melbourne Sexual Health Centre in August 2020. RESULTS: Of the 192 participants completed the survey, 153 (80%) did not change how they took PrEP. Of the 136 daily PrEP users, 111 (82%) continued to take daily PrEP, 3 (2%) switched to on-demand PrEP, and 22 (16%) stopped PrEP in July-August. Men generally reported that they had no partners or decreased sexual activities during second lockdown compared with post-first lockdown; the number of casual sex partners (43% decreased vs. 3% increased) and the number of kissing partners (36% decreased vs. 3% increased). Most men reported no chemsex (79%) or group sex (77%) in May-August. 10% (13/127) of men had ever worn face masks during sex in May-August. CONCLUSION: During the second wave of COVID-19 in Victoria, most men did not change the way they used PrEP but the majority had no risks or reduced sexual practices while one in 10 men wore a face mask during sex.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Homosexuality, Male/statistics & numerical data , Masks , Safe Sex , Sexual Behavior/statistics & numerical data , Adult , Australia , COVID-19/prevention & control , Communicable Disease Control , HIV Infections/prevention & control , Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis/statistics & numerical data , SARS-CoV-2 , Surveys and Questionnaires
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