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1.
Open Forum Infect Dis ; 9(7): ofac219, 2022 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1931882

ABSTRACT

Background: The Adaptive COVID Treatment Trial-2 (ACTT-2) found that baricitinib in combination with remdesivir therapy (BCT) sped recovery in hospitalized coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients vs remdesivir monotherapy (RMT). We examined how BCT affected progression throughout hospitalization and utilization of intensive respiratory therapies. Methods: We characterized the clinical trajectories of 891 ACTT-2 participants requiring supplemental oxygen or higher levels of respiratory support at enrollment. We estimated the effect of BCT on cumulative incidence of clinical improvement and deterioration using competing risks models. We developed multistate models to estimate the effect of BCT on clinical improvement and deterioration and on utilization of respiratory therapies. Results: BCT resulted in more linear improvement and lower incidence of clinical deterioration compared with RMT (hazard ratio [HR], 0.74; 95% CI, 0.58 to 0.95). The benefit was pronounced among participants enrolled on high-flow oxygen or noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation. In this group, BCT sped clinical improvement (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 0.99 to 1.51) while slowing clinical deterioration (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.48 to 1.02), which reduced the expected days in ordinal score (OS) 6 per 100 patients by 74 days (95% CI, -8 to 154 days) and the expected days in OS 7 per 100 patients by 161 days (95% CI, 46 to 291 days) compared with RMT. BCT did not benefit participants who were mechanically ventilated at enrollment. Conclusions: Compared with RMT, BCT reduces the clinical burden and utilization of intensive respiratory therapies for patients requiring low-flow oxygen or noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation compared with RMT and may thereby improve care for this patient population.

2.
Clin Infect Dis ; 74(12): 2209-2217, 2022 07 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1706701

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The Adaptive Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Treatment Trial-1 (ACTT-1) found that remdesivir therapy hastened recovery in patients hospitalized with COVID-19, but the pathway for this improvement was not explored. We investigated how the dynamics of clinical progression changed along 4 pathways: recovery, improvement in respiratory therapy requirement, deterioration in respiratory therapy requirement, and death. METHODS: We analyzed trajectories of daily ordinal severity scores reflecting oxygen requirements of 1051 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 who participated in ACTT-1. We developed competing risks models that estimate the effect of remdesivir therapy on cumulative incidence of clinical improvement and deterioration, and multistate models that utilize the entirety of each patient's clinical course to characterize the effect of remdesivir on progression along the 4 pathways above. RESULTS: Based on a competing risks analysis, remdesivir reduced clinical deterioration (hazard ratio [HR], 0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI]: .59-.91) and increased clinical improvement (HR, 1.22; 95% CI: 1.08, 1.39) relative to baseline. Our multistate models indicate that remdesivir inhibits worsening to ordinal scores of greater clinical severity among patients on room air or low-flow oxygen (HR, 0.74; 95% CI: .57-.94) and among patients receiving mechanical ventilation or high-flow oxygen/noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation (HR, 0.73; 95% CI: .53-1.00) at baseline. We also find that remdesivir reduces expected intensive care respiratory therapy utilization among patients not mechanically ventilated at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Remdesivir speeds time to recovery by preventing worsening to clinical states that would extend the course of hospitalization and increase intensive respiratory support, thereby reducing the overall demand for hospital care.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Adenosine Monophosphate/analogs & derivatives , Alanine/analogs & derivatives , Antiviral Agents , COVID-19/drug therapy , Critical Care , Humans , Oxygen , SARS-CoV-2
3.
EuropePMC; 2021.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-310487

ABSTRACT

Randomized vaccine trials are used to assess vaccine efficacy and to characterize the durability of vaccine induced protection. If efficacy is demonstrated, the treatment of placebo volunteers becomes an issue. For COVID-19 vaccine trials, there is broad consensus that placebo volunteers should be offered a vaccine once efficacy has been established. This will likely lead to most placebo volunteers crossing over to the vaccine arm, thus complicating the assessment of long term durability. We show how to analyze durability following placebo crossover and demonstrate that the vaccine efficacy profile that would be observed in a placebo controlled trial is recoverable in a trial with placebo crossover. This result holds no matter when the crossover occurs and with no assumptions about the form of the efficacy profile. We only require that the vaccine efficacy profile applies to the newly vaccinated irrespective of the timing of vaccination. We develop different methods to estimate efficacy within the context of a proportional hazards regression model and explore via simulation the implications of placebo crossover for estimation of vaccine efficacy under different efficacy dynamics and study designs. We apply our methods to simulated COVID-19 vaccine trials with durable and waning vaccine efficacy and a total follow-up of two years.

4.
EuropePMC; 2021.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-291896

ABSTRACT

Mechanistic modeling of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and frequently estimating model parameters using streaming surveillance data are important components of the pandemic response toolbox. However, transmission model parameter estimation can be imprecise, and sometimes even impossible, because surveillance data are noisy and not informative about all aspects of the mechanistic model. To partially overcome this obstacle, we propose a Bayesian modeling framework that integrates multiple surveillance data streams. Our model uses both SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics test and mortality time series to estimate our model parameters, while also explicitly integrating seroprevalence data from cross-sectional studies. Importantly, our data generating model for incidence data takes into account changes in the total number of tests performed. We model transmission rate, infection-to-fatality ratio, and a parameter controlling a functional relationship between the true case incidence and the fraction of positive tests as time-varying quantities and estimate changes of these parameters nonparameterically. We apply our Bayesian data integration method to COVID-19 surveillance data collected in Orange County, California between March, 2020 and March, 2021 and find that 33-62% of the Orange County residents experienced SARS-CoV-2 infection by the end of February, 2021. Despite this high number of infections, our results show that the abrupt end of the winter surge in January, 2021, was due to both behavioral changes and a high level of accumulated natural immunity.

5.
Clin Infect Dis ; 74(12): 2209-2217, 2022 07 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1364781

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The Adaptive Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Treatment Trial-1 (ACTT-1) found that remdesivir therapy hastened recovery in patients hospitalized with COVID-19, but the pathway for this improvement was not explored. We investigated how the dynamics of clinical progression changed along 4 pathways: recovery, improvement in respiratory therapy requirement, deterioration in respiratory therapy requirement, and death. METHODS: We analyzed trajectories of daily ordinal severity scores reflecting oxygen requirements of 1051 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 who participated in ACTT-1. We developed competing risks models that estimate the effect of remdesivir therapy on cumulative incidence of clinical improvement and deterioration, and multistate models that utilize the entirety of each patient's clinical course to characterize the effect of remdesivir on progression along the 4 pathways above. RESULTS: Based on a competing risks analysis, remdesivir reduced clinical deterioration (hazard ratio [HR], 0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI]: .59-.91) and increased clinical improvement (HR, 1.22; 95% CI: 1.08, 1.39) relative to baseline. Our multistate models indicate that remdesivir inhibits worsening to ordinal scores of greater clinical severity among patients on room air or low-flow oxygen (HR, 0.74; 95% CI: .57-.94) and among patients receiving mechanical ventilation or high-flow oxygen/noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation (HR, 0.73; 95% CI: .53-1.00) at baseline. We also find that remdesivir reduces expected intensive care respiratory therapy utilization among patients not mechanically ventilated at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Remdesivir speeds time to recovery by preventing worsening to clinical states that would extend the course of hospitalization and increase intensive respiratory support, thereby reducing the overall demand for hospital care.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Adenosine Monophosphate/analogs & derivatives , Alanine/analogs & derivatives , Antiviral Agents , COVID-19/drug therapy , Critical Care , Humans , Oxygen , SARS-CoV-2
6.
Biometrics ; 2021 Aug 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1349937

ABSTRACT

Stochastic epidemic models (SEMs) fit to incidence data are critical to elucidating outbreak dynamics, shaping response strategies, and preparing for future epidemics. SEMs typically represent counts of individuals in discrete infection states using Markov jump processes (MJPs), but are computationally challenging as imperfect surveillance, lack of subject-level information, and temporal coarseness of the data obscure the true epidemic. Analytic integration over the latent epidemic process is impossible, and integration via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is cumbersome due to the dimensionality and discreteness of the latent state space. Simulation-based computational approaches can address the intractability of the MJP likelihood, but are numerically fragile and prohibitively expensive for complex models. A linear noise approximation (LNA) that approximates the MJP transition density with a Gaussian density has been explored for analyzing prevalence data in large-population settings, but requires modification for analyzing incidence counts without assuming that the data are normally distributed. We demonstrate how to reparameterize SEMs to appropriately analyze incidence data, and fold the LNA into a data augmentation MCMC framework that outperforms deterministic methods, statistically, and simulation-based methods, computationally. Our framework is computationally robust when the model dynamics are complex and applies to a broad class of SEMs. We evaluate our method in simulations that reflect Ebola, influenza, and SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, and apply our method to national surveillance counts from the 2013-2015 West Africa Ebola outbreak.

7.
Science ; 373(6561): eabj0299, 2021 Sep 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1334532

ABSTRACT

Immune correlates of protection can be used as surrogate endpoints for vaccine efficacy. Here, nonhuman primates (NHPs) received either no vaccine or doses ranging from 0.3 to 100 µg of the mRNA-1273 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine. mRNA-1273 vaccination elicited circulating and mucosal antibody responses in a dose-dependent manner. Viral replication was significantly reduced in bronchoalveolar lavages and nasal swabs after SARS-CoV-2 challenge in vaccinated animals and most strongly correlated with levels of anti­S antibody and neutralizing activity. Lower antibody levels were needed for reduction of viral replication in the lower airway than in the upper airway. Passive transfer of mRNA-1273­induced immunoglobulin G to naïve hamsters was sufficient to mediate protection. Thus, mRNA-1273 vaccine­induced humoral immune responses are a mechanistic correlate of protection against SARS-CoV-2 in NHPs.


Subject(s)
Antibodies, Neutralizing/blood , Antibodies, Viral/blood , COVID-19 Vaccines/administration & dosage , COVID-19 Vaccines/immunology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Immunogenicity, Vaccine , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , Animals , Antibodies, Neutralizing/immunology , Antibodies, Viral/immunology , Antibody Affinity , Bronchoalveolar Lavage Fluid/immunology , Bronchoalveolar Lavage Fluid/virology , CD4-Positive T-Lymphocytes/immunology , COVID-19/immunology , COVID-19/virology , Female , Immunization Schedule , Immunization, Passive , Immunization, Secondary , Immunoglobulin G/immunology , Immunologic Memory , Lung/immunology , Lung/virology , Macaca mulatta , Male , Mesocricetus , Nasal Mucosa/immunology , Nasal Mucosa/virology , SARS-CoV-2/physiology , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/immunology , Vaccination , Vaccine Potency , Virus Replication
8.
Ann Intern Med ; 174(8): 1118-1125, 2021 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1181776

ABSTRACT

Multiple candidate vaccines to prevent COVID-19 have entered large-scale phase 3 placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials, and several have demonstrated substantial short-term efficacy. At some point after demonstration of substantial efficacy, placebo recipients should be offered the efficacious vaccine from their trial, which will occur before longer-term efficacy and safety are known. The absence of a placebo group could compromise assessment of longer-term vaccine effects. However, by continuing follow-up after vaccination of the placebo group, this study shows that placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy can be mathematically derived by assuming that the benefit of vaccination over time has the same profile for the original vaccine recipients and the original placebo recipients after their vaccination. Although this derivation provides less precise estimates than would be obtained by a standard trial where the placebo group remains unvaccinated, this proposed approach allows estimation of longer-term effect, including durability of vaccine efficacy and whether the vaccine eventually becomes harmful for some. Deferred vaccination, if done open-label, may lead to riskier behavior in the unblinded original vaccine group, confounding estimates of long-term vaccine efficacy. Hence, deferred vaccination via blinded crossover, where the vaccine group receives placebo and vice versa, would be the preferred way to assess vaccine durability and potential delayed harm. Deferred vaccination allows placebo recipients timely access to the vaccine when it would no longer be proper to maintain them on placebo, yet still allows important insights about immunologic and clinical effectiveness over time.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines/administration & dosage , COVID-19/prevention & control , Clinical Trials, Phase III as Topic/standards , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic/standards , Clinical Trials, Phase III as Topic/methods , Cross-Over Studies , Double-Blind Method , Drug Administration Schedule , Follow-Up Studies , Humans , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic/methods , Research Design/standards , SARS-CoV-2 , Treatment Outcome
9.
JCI Insight ; 6(1)2021 01 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1027164

ABSTRACT

Immune and inflammatory responses to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) contribute to disease severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the utility of specific immune-based biomarkers to predict clinical outcome remains elusive. Here, we analyzed levels of 66 soluble biomarkers in 175 Italian patients with COVID-19 ranging from mild/moderate to critical severity and assessed type I IFN-, type II IFN-, and NF-κB-dependent whole-blood transcriptional signatures. A broad inflammatory signature was observed, implicating activation of various immune and nonhematopoietic cell subsets. Discordance between IFN-α2a protein and IFNA2 transcript levels in blood suggests that type I IFNs during COVID-19 may be primarily produced by tissue-resident cells. Multivariable analysis of patients' first samples revealed 12 biomarkers (CCL2, IL-15, soluble ST2 [sST2], NGAL, sTNFRSF1A, ferritin, IL-6, S100A9, MMP-9, IL-2, sVEGFR1, IL-10) that when increased were independently associated with mortality. Multivariate analyses of longitudinal biomarker trajectories identified 8 of the aforementioned biomarkers (IL-15, IL-2, NGAL, CCL2, MMP-9, sTNFRSF1A, sST2, IL-10) and 2 additional biomarkers (lactoferrin, CXCL9) that were substantially associated with mortality when increased, while IL-1α was associated with mortality when decreased. Among these, sST2, sTNFRSF1A, IL-10, and IL-15 were consistently higher throughout the hospitalization in patients who died versus those who recovered, suggesting that these biomarkers may provide an early warning of eventual disease outcome.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/immunology , COVID-19/mortality , Adrenal Cortex Hormones/therapeutic use , Adult , Aged , Anti-Bacterial Agents/therapeutic use , Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized/therapeutic use , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , Azithromycin/therapeutic use , Biomarkers , COVID-19/genetics , COVID-19/therapy , Calgranulin B/genetics , Calgranulin B/immunology , Case-Control Studies , Chemokine CCL2/genetics , Chemokine CCL2/immunology , Chemokine CXCL9/genetics , Chemokine CXCL9/immunology , Enzyme Inhibitors/therapeutic use , Female , Ferritins/genetics , Ferritins/immunology , Gene Expression Profiling , Humans , Hydroxychloroquine/therapeutic use , Immunologic Factors/therapeutic use , Interferon Type I/genetics , Interferon Type I/immunology , Interferon-gamma/genetics , Interferon-gamma/immunology , Interleukin-1 Receptor-Like 1 Protein/genetics , Interleukin-1 Receptor-Like 1 Protein/immunology , Interleukin-10/genetics , Interleukin-10/immunology , Interleukin-15/genetics , Interleukin-15/immunology , Interleukin-2/genetics , Interleukin-2/immunology , Interleukin-6/genetics , Interleukin-6/immunology , Lactoferrin/genetics , Lactoferrin/immunology , Lipocalin-2/genetics , Lipocalin-2/immunology , Male , Matrix Metalloproteinase 9/genetics , Matrix Metalloproteinase 9/immunology , Middle Aged , Multivariate Analysis , NF-kappa B/genetics , NF-kappa B/immunology
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