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1.
Glob Heart ; 17(1): 17, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1753872

ABSTRACT

Background: Based on current evidence, it is not clear whether lone hypertension increases the risk for severe illness from COVID-19, or if increased risk is mainly associated with age, obesity and diabetes. The objective of the study was to evaluate whether lone hypertension is associated with increase mortality or a more severe course of COVID-19, and if treatment and control of hypertension mitigates this risk. Methods: This is a prospective multi-center observational cohort study with 30-day outcomes of 9,531 consecutive SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive patients ≥ 18 years old (41.9 ± 9.7 years, 49.2% male), Uzbekistan, June 1-September 30, 2020. Patients were subclassified according to JNC8 criteria into six blood pressure stages. Univariable and multiple logistic regression was conducted to examine how variables predict outcomes. Results: The 30-days all-cause mortality was 1.18% (n = 112) in the whole cohort. After adjusting for age, sex, history of myocardial infarction (MI), type-2 diabetes, and obesity, none of six JNC8 groups showed any significant difference in all-cause mortality. However, age was associated with an increased risk of 30-days all-cause mortality (OR = 1.09, 95%CI [1.07-1.12], p < 0.001), obesity (OR = 7.18, 95% CI [4.18-12.44], p < 0.001), diabetes (OR 4.18, 95% CI [2.58-6.76], p < 0.001), and history of MI (OR = 2.68, 95% CI [1.67-4.31], p < 0.001). In the sensitivity test, being ≥ 65 years old increased mortality 10.56-fold (95% CI [5.89-18.92], p < 0.001). Hospital admission was 12.4% (n = 1,183), ICU admission 1.38% (n = 132). The odds of hospitalization increased having stage-2 untreated hypertension (OR = 4.51, 95%CI [3.21-6.32], p < 0.001), stage-1 untreated hypertension (OR = 1.97, 95%CI [1.52-2.56], p < 0.001), and elevated blood pressure (OR = 1.82, 95% CI [1.42-2.34], p < 0.001). Neither stage-1 nor stage-2 treated hypertension patients were at statistically significant increased risk for hospitalization after adjusting for confounders. Presenting with stage-2 untreated hypertension increased the odds of ICU admission (OR = 3.05, 95 %CI [1.57-5.93], p = 0.001). Conclusions: Lone hypertension did not increase COVID-19 mortality or in treated patients risk of hospitalization.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Hypertension , Adolescent , Aged , COVID-19/complications , COVID-19/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Hypertension/complications , Hypertension/epidemiology , Male , Prospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2
2.
Lancet Healthy Longev ; 3(4): e219-e220, 2022 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1751540
4.
Maturitas ; 157: 68-69, 2022 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1587031
5.
J Appl Gerontol ; 41(4): 982-992, 2022 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1546702

ABSTRACT

Telemedicine has provided older adults the ability to seek care remotely during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. However, it is unclear how diverse medical conditions play a role in telemedicine uptake. A total of 3379 participants (≥65 years) were interviewed in 2018 as part of the National Health and Aging Trends Study. We assessed telemedicine readiness across multiple medical conditions. Most chronic medical conditions and mood symptoms were significantly associated with telemedicine unreadiness, for physical or technical reasons or both, while cancer, hypertension, and arthritis were significantly associated with telemedicine readiness. Our findings suggest that multiple medical conditions play a substantial role in telemedicine uptake among older adults in the US. Therefore, comorbidities should be taken into consideration when promoting and adopting telemedicine technologies among older adults.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Telemedicine , Aged , Aging , COVID-19/epidemiology , Chronic Disease , Humans , Pandemics
8.
Rev Colomb Psiquiatr (Engl Ed) ; 2021 Jun 17.
Article in English, Spanish | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1298759

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively impacted mental health. Up to a quarter of the population has reported mental health disorders. This has been studied mainly from a nosological perspective, according to diagnostic criteria. Nevertheless, we did not find studies that have explored the daily expressions of the population. Our objective was to evaluate the perceptions of the COVID-19 pandemic and its repercussions on the emotional well-being of the Colombian population. METHODS: We performed a Twitter metrics and trend analysis. Initially, in the trend analysis, we calculated the average duration in hours of the 20 most popular trending topics of the day in Colombia and we grouped them into trends related to COVID-19 and unrelated trends. Subsequently, we identified dates of events associated with the pandemic relevant to the country, and they were related to the behaviour of the trends studied. Additionally, we did an exploratory analysis of these, selected the tweets with the greatest reach and categorised them in an inductive way to analyse them qualitatively. RESULTS: Issues not related to COVID-19 were more far-reaching than those related to coronavirus. However, a rise in these issues was seen on some dates consistent with important events in Colombia. We found expressions of approval and disapproval, solidarity and accusation. Inductively, we identified categories of informative tweets, humour, fear, stigma and discrimination, politics and entities, citizen complaints, and self-care and optimism. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic generates different reactions in the population, which increasingly have more tools to express themselves and know the opinions of others. Social networks play a fundamental role in the communication of the population, so this content could serve as a public health surveillance tool and a useful and accessible means of communication in the management of health crises.

10.
BMJ ; 373: n604, 2021 04 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1186275

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether overall lifestyles mediate associations of socioeconomic status (SES) with mortality and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) and the extent of interaction or joint relations of lifestyles and SES with health outcomes. DESIGN: Population based cohort study. SETTING: US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (US NHANES, 1988-94 and 1999-2014) and UK Biobank. PARTICIPANTS: 44 462 US adults aged 20 years or older and 399 537 UK adults aged 37-73 years. EXPOSURES: SES was derived by latent class analysis using family income, occupation or employment status, education level, and health insurance (US NHANES only), and three levels (low, medium, and high) were defined according to item response probabilities. A healthy lifestyle score was constructed using information on never smoking, no heavy alcohol consumption (women ≤1 drink/day; men ≤2 drinks/day; one drink contains 14 g of ethanol in the US and 8 g in the UK), top third of physical activity, and higher dietary quality. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All cause mortality was the primary outcome in both studies, and CVD mortality and morbidity in UK Biobank, which were obtained through linkage to registries. RESULTS: US NHANES documented 8906 deaths over a mean follow-up of 11.2 years, and UK Biobank documented 22 309 deaths and 6903 incident CVD cases over a mean follow-up of 8.8-11.0 years. Among adults of low SES, age adjusted risk of death was 22.5 (95% confidence interval 21.7 to 23.3) and 7.4 (7.3 to 7.6) per 1000 person years in US NHANES and UK Biobank, respectively, and age adjusted risk of CVD was 2.5 (2.4 to 2.6) per 1000 person years in UK Biobank. The corresponding risks among adults of high SES were 11.4 (10.6 to 12.1), 3.3 (3.1 to 3.5), and 1.4 (1.3 to 1.5) per 1000 person years. Compared with adults of high SES, those of low SES had higher risks of all cause mortality (hazard ratio 2.13, 95% confidence interval 1.90 to 2.38 in US NHANES; 1.96, 1.87 to 2.06 in UK Biobank), CVD mortality (2.25, 2.00 to 2.53), and incident CVD (1.65, 1.52 to 1.79) in UK Biobank, and the proportions mediated by lifestyle were 12.3% (10.7% to 13.9%), 4.0% (3.5% to 4.4%), 3.0% (2.5% to 3.6%), and 3.7% (3.1% to 4.5%), respectively. No significant interaction was observed between lifestyle and SES in US NHANES, whereas associations between lifestyle and outcomes were stronger among those of low SES in UK Biobank. Compared with adults of high SES and three or four healthy lifestyle factors, those with low SES and no or one healthy lifestyle factor had higher risks of all cause mortality (3.53, 3.01 to 4.14 in US NHANES; 2.65, 2.39 to 2.94 in UK Biobank), CVD mortality (2.65, 2.09 to 3.38), and incident CVD (2.09, 1.78 to 2.46) in UK Biobank. CONCLUSIONS: Unhealthy lifestyles mediated a small proportion of the socioeconomic inequity in health in both US and UK adults; therefore, healthy lifestyle promotion alone might not substantially reduce the socioeconomic inequity in health, and other measures tackling social determinants of health are warranted. Nevertheless, healthy lifestyles were associated with lower mortality and CVD risk in different SES subgroups, supporting an important role of healthy lifestyles in reducing disease burden.


Subject(s)
Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Healthy Lifestyle , Mortality , Socioeconomic Factors , Adult , Aged , Cardiovascular Diseases/mortality , Female , Health Behavior , Health Status Disparities , Humans , Incidence , Male , Middle Aged , Nutrition Surveys , Prospective Studies , Registries , United Kingdom/epidemiology , United States/epidemiology , Young Adult
11.
Maturitas ; 148: 62-64, 2021 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1078070
12.
Biomédica (Bogotá) ; 40(supl.2):16-26, 2020.
Article in Spanish | LILACS (Americas), Grey literature | ID: grc-745461

ABSTRACT

Resumen Actualmente, el mundo se enfrenta a la pandemia generada por el SARS-CoV-2, infección para la cual no hay medidas farmacológicas de prevención ni tratamiento. Hasta el momento, ha dejado más de 4'880.000 casos confirmados y 322.000 muertes. Se han propuesto diferentes estrategias para el control de la enfermedad que implican la participación de diferentes sectores de la sociedad con acciones guiadas por lineamientos jurídicos y basados en medidas de salud pública, entre ellas, la contención, la mitigación, el aislamiento físico y la cuarentena. Dado que se trata de una situación de dimensión poblacional, la información tiene un papel fundamental;sin embargo, la proliferación de términos nuevos, muchas veces usados erróneamente, causa confusión y desinformación y, en consecuencia, limitan la participación ciudanía. En ese contexto, en el presente documento se hizo una revisión de los términos utilizados en epidemias y pandemias de enfermedades infecciosas, con énfasis en la COVID-19, para facilitar al público general la comprensión de los términos relevantes sobre el comportamiento de los agentes patógenos y de su ciclo epidémico y pandémico, así como los criterios para la adopción de las decisiones pertinentes en salud pública. Se aspira a que el glosario resultante ayude al uso correcto de los términos y a homogenizar la información. Currently, the world is facing the pandemic generated by SARS-CoV-2. There are no no pharmacological measures for the prevention or treatment of this infection and, so far, it has caused more than 4'880.000 confirmed cases and 322.000 deaths. The different strategies for the control of the disease that have been proposed involve the participation of different actors. Such participation, guided by legal guidelines based on public health measures, include containment, mitigation, physical isolation, and quarantine. As this is a population-based problem, information plays a primary role;however, the many new terms hat have arisen and their misuse confuse and, therefore, misinform thus limiting citizen participation. For this reason, we conducted a review of the terms used in epidemics and pandemics of infectious diseases, particularly COVID-19. We considered and differentiated the relevant terms to facilitate the understanding of pathogen's behavior and epidemic and pandemic cycles, as well as the criteria for public health decision-making for the general public. This glossary should facilitate the use of the terms and standardize the information.

13.
Biomédica (Bogotá) ; 40(supl.2):16-26, 2020.
Article in Spanish | LILACS (Americas) | ID: covidwho-1022708

ABSTRACT

Resumen Actualmente, el mundo se enfrenta a la pandemia generada por el SARS-CoV-2, infección para la cual no hay medidas farmacológicas de prevención ni tratamiento. Hasta el momento, ha dejado más de 4'880.000 casos confirmados y 322.000 muertes. Se han propuesto diferentes estrategias para el control de la enfermedad que implican la participación de diferentes sectores de la sociedad con acciones guiadas por lineamientos jurídicos y basados en medidas de salud pública, entre ellas, la contención, la mitigación, el aislamiento físico y la cuarentena. Dado que se trata de una situación de dimensión poblacional, la información tiene un papel fundamental;sin embargo, la proliferación de términos nuevos, muchas veces usados erróneamente, causa confusión y desinformación y, en consecuencia, limitan la participación ciudanía. En ese contexto, en el presente documento se hizo una revisión de los términos utilizados en epidemias y pandemias de enfermedades infecciosas, con énfasis en la COVID-19, para facilitar al público general la comprensión de los términos relevantes sobre el comportamiento de los agentes patógenos y de su ciclo epidémico y pandémico, así como los criterios para la adopción de las decisiones pertinentes en salud pública. Se aspira a que el glosario resultante ayude al uso correcto de los términos y a homogenizar la información. Currently, the world is facing the pandemic generated by SARS-CoV-2. There are no no pharmacological measures for the prevention or treatment of this infection and, so far, it has caused more than 4'880.000 confirmed cases and 322.000 deaths. The different strategies for the control of the disease that have been proposed involve the participation of different actors. Such participation, guided by legal guidelines based on public health measures, include containment, mitigation, physical isolation, and quarantine. As this is a population-based problem, information plays a primary role;however, the many new terms hat have arisen and their misuse confuse and, therefore, misinform thus limiting citizen participation. For this reason, we conducted a review of the terms used in epidemics and pandemics of infectious diseases, particularly COVID-19. We considered and differentiated the relevant terms to facilitate the understanding of pathogen's behavior and epidemic and pandemic cycles, as well as the criteria for public health decision-making for the general public. This glossary should facilitate the use of the terms and standardize the information.

14.
J Epidemiol Community Health ; 2021 Jan 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1015711
15.
Am J Epidemiol ; 190(1): 161-175, 2021 01 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1010326

ABSTRACT

Health-care workers (HCWs) are at the frontline of response to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), being at a higher risk of acquiring the disease and, subsequently, exposing patients and others. Searches of 8 bibliographic databases were performed to systematically review the evidence on the prevalence, risk factors, clinical characteristics, and prognosis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection among HCWs. A total of 97 studies (all published in 2020) met the inclusion criteria. The estimated prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection from HCWs' samples, using reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and the presence of antibodies, was 11% (95% confidence interval (CI): 7, 15) and 7% (95% CI: 4, 11), respectively. The most frequently affected personnel were nurses (48%, 95% CI: 41, 56), whereas most of the COVID-19-positive medical personnel were working in hospital nonemergency wards during screening (43%, 95% CI: 28, 59). Anosmia, fever, and myalgia were the only symptoms associated with HCW SARS-CoV-2 positivity. Among HCWs positive for COVID-19 by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, 40% (95% CI: 17, 65) were asymptomatic at time of diagnosis. Finally, severe clinical complications developed in 5% (95% CI: 3, 8) of the COVID-19-positive HCWs, and 0.5% (95% CI: 0.02, 1.3) died. Health-care workers suffer a significant burden from COVID-19, with those working in hospital nonemergency wards and nurses being the most commonly infected personnel.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Health Personnel/statistics & numerical data , Global Health , Humans , Prevalence , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2
16.
Rev. salud pública ; 22(2): e386380, mar.-abr. 2020. tab, graf
Article in Spanish | WHO COVID, LILACS (Americas) | ID: covidwho-994620

ABSTRACT

RESUMEN Objetivo Modelar el curso de la pandemia COVID-19 en Chile y proyectar la demanda de recursos hospitalarios y letalidad en escenarios simulados: primero, recurriendo a distintas medidas de mitigación para contener la propagación en un mes -desde el 14 de abril hasta el 14 de mayo del 2020- y, segundo, en el supuesto contagio del 70% de la población, según edad, sin límite de tiempo. Métodos Utilizamos como base el número de contagios confirmados con SARS-CoV-2 en Chile hasta el 14 de abril del 2020 (8 273 casos, 94 muertes). Para los distintos escenarios, asumimos un número reproductivo básico que va desde R0=2,5 hasta R0=1,5. La proyección de la demanda hospitalaria y letalidad por edad se fundamentaron en reportes italianos y británicos. Resultados Estimamos que para el 14 de mayo del 2020 habría en Chile 2 019 775 contagiados y 15 068 fallecidos en ausencia de medidas de mitigación (R0=2,5). Al implementar medidas que reduzcan R0 a 1,5 (detección temprana y aislamiento de casos, cuarentena y distanciamiento social de mayores de 70 años), el número de contagios y letalidad disminuirían a 94 235 y 703 respectivamente. Sin embargo, la demanda hospitalaria aún sobrepasaría la capacidad de respuesta. La población de mayor riesgo la componen los mayores de 60 años. Conclusión Encontramos evidencia a favor de las medidas de mitigación implementadas por el Gobierno chileno. Sin embargo, medidas más estrictas son necesarias para no colapsar el sistema sanitario, que cuenta con menos recursos hospitalarios que los proyectados. Es esencial aumentar la capacidad hospitalaria en términos de equipamiento y entrenamiento del personal de salud.(AU)


ABSTRACT Objetive To model disease progression, healthcare demand and case fatality rate attributed to COVID-19 pandemic that may occur in Chile in 1-month time, by simulating different scenarios according to diverse mitigation measures hypothetically implemented. Furthermore, we aimed to estimate the same outcomes assuming that 70% of the population will be infected by SARS-CoV-2, with no time limit assumption. Methods We based on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Chile up to April 14th 2020 (8 273 cases and 94 deaths). For the simulated scenarios we assumed basic reproduction numbers ranging from R0=2.5 to R0=1.5. The estimation of the number of patients that would require intensive care and the age-specific case fatality rate were based on data provided by the Imperial College of London and the Instituto Superiore di Sanità en Italia. Results If no mitigation measures were applied (R0=2.5), by May 25, Chile would have 2 019 775 cases and 15 068 deaths. If mitigations measures were implemented to decrease R0 to 1.5 (early detection of cases, quarantine, social distancing of elderly), the number of cases and deaths would importantly decrease. Nonetheless, the demand for in-hospital care including intensive care would exceed the available resources. Our age-specific analysis showed that population over 60 years are at higher risk of needing intensive care and death. Conclusion Our evidence supports the mitigation measures implemented by the Chilean government. Nevertheless, more stringent measures are needed to prevent the health care system's collapse due to shortfall of resources to confront the COVID-19 pandemic.(AU)


Subject(s)
Humans , Health Systems/organization & administration , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Disaster Management/methods , Chile/epidemiology
17.
Obes Rev ; 22(3): e13165, 2021 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-940795

ABSTRACT

In May 2020, Latin America became the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, a region already afflicted by social disparities, poor healthcare access, inadequate nutrition and a large prevalence of noncommunicable chronic diseases. Obesity and its comorbidities are increasingly prevalent in Latin America, with a more rapid growth in individuals with lower income, and currently a disease associated with COVID-19 severity, complications and death. In this document, the Latin American Association of Obesity Societies and collaborators present a review of the burden of two pandemics in Latin America, discuss possible mechanisms that explain their relationship with each other and provide public health and individual recommendations, as well as questions for future studies.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Obesity/epidemiology , Comorbidity , Humans , Latin America/epidemiology , Pandemics , Public Health/methods , SARS-CoV-2 , Societies, Medical
19.
Rev. salud pública ; 22(2):e386380-e386380, 2020.
Article in Spanish | LILACS (Americas) | ID: covidwho-864700

ABSTRACT

RESUMEN Objetivo Modelar el curso de la pandemia COVID-19 en Chile y proyectar la demanda de recursos hospitalarios y letalidad en escenarios simulados: primero, recurriendo a distintas medidas de mitigación para contener la propagación en un mes -desde el 14 de abril hasta el 14 de mayo del 2020- y, segundo, en el supuesto contagio del 70% de la población, según edad, sin límite de tiempo. Métodos Utilizamos como base el número de contagios confirmados con SARS-CoV-2 en Chile hasta el 14 de abril del 2020 (8 273 casos, 94 muertes). Para los distintos escenarios, asumimos un número reproductivo básico que va desde R0=2,5 hasta R0=1,5. La proyección de la demanda hospitalaria y letalidad por edad se fundamentaron en reportes italianos y británicos. Resultados Estimamos que para el 14 de mayo del 2020 habría en Chile 2 019 775 contagiados y 15 068 fallecidos en ausencia de medidas de mitigación (R0=2,5). Al implementar medidas que reduzcan R0 a 1,5 (detección temprana y aislamiento de casos, cuarentena y distanciamiento social de mayores de 70 años), el número de contagios y letalidad disminuirían a 94 235 y 703 respectivamente. Sin embargo, la demanda hospitalaria aún sobrepasaría la capacidad de respuesta. La población de mayor riesgo la componen los mayores de 60 años. Conclusión Encontramos evidencia a favor de las medidas de mitigación implementadas por el Gobierno chileno. Sin embargo, medidas más estrictas son necesarias para no colapsar el sistema sanitario, que cuenta con menos recursos hospitalarios que los proyectados. Es esencial aumentar la capacidad hospitalaria en términos de equipamiento y entrenamiento del personal de salud.(AU) ABSTRACT Objetive To model disease progression, healthcare demand and case fatality rate attributed to COVID-19 pandemic that may occur in Chile in 1-month time, by simulating different scenarios according to diverse mitigation measures hypothetically implemented. Furthermore, we aimed to estimate the same outcomes assuming that 70% of the population will be infected by SARS-CoV-2, with no time limit assumption. Methods We based on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Chile up to April 14th 2020 (8 273 cases and 94 deaths). For the simulated scenarios we assumed basic reproduction numbers ranging from R0=2.5 to R0=1.5. The estimation of the number of patients that would require intensive care and the age-specific case fatality rate were based on data provided by the Imperial College of London and the Instituto Superiore di Sanità en Italia. Results If no mitigation measures were applied (R0=2.5), by May 25, Chile would have 2 019 775 cases and 15 068 deaths. If mitigations measures were implemented to decrease R0 to 1.5 (early detection of cases, quarantine, social distancing of elderly), the number of cases and deaths would importantly decrease. Nonetheless, the demand for in-hospital care including intensive care would exceed the available resources. Our age-specific analysis showed that population over 60 years are at higher risk of needing intensive care and death. Conclusion Our evidence supports the mitigation measures implemented by the Chilean government. Nevertheless, more stringent measures are needed to prevent the health care system's collapse due to shortfall of resources to confront the COVID-19 pandemic.(AU)

20.
Rev. salud pública ; 22(1):e185989-e185989, 2020.
Article in Spanish | LILACS (Americas) | ID: covidwho-864697

ABSTRACT

RESUMEN Objetivo Este estudio tiene como primer objetivo: realizar predicciones del curso de la infección en el horizonte temporal desde marzo 18 a abril 18 del 2020, según diferentes medidas de aislamiento aplicadas. Las predicciones incluyen, población total contagiada, mortalidad y necesidad de recursos hospitalarios. Segundo objetivo: modelar la mortalidad y la necesidad de recursos hospitalarios, estratificando por edad el escenario de contagio del 70% de la población. Métodos Para el primer objetivo, nos basamos en el número de casos confirmados en el país hasta marzo 18, 2020 (n=93). Como suposiciones para el modelo, incluimos un índice de contagio R0=2,5 y el índice de casos reales por cada caso confirmado. Para la proporción de pacientes que necesitarían cuidados intensivos u otros cuidados intrahospitalarios, nos basamos en datos aportados por el Imperial College of London. Para el segundo objetivo usamos como tasa de mortalidad por edad, datos aportados por el Instituto Superiore di Sanità en Italia. Resultados Basándonos en los 93 casos reportados al 18 de marzo, si no se aplicase ninguna medida de mitigación, para el 18 de abril el país tendría un total de 613 037 casos. Medidas de mitigación que reduzcan el R0 en un 10%, generan una reducción del 50% del número de casos. Sin embargo, a pesar de reducirse los casos a la mitad, todavía habría un déficit en el número de camas requeridas y sólo uno de cada dos pacientes tendría acceso a dicho recurso. Conclusión En nuestro modelo encontramos que las medidas de mitigación que han sido implementadas hasta la fecha por el gobierno colombiano, se fundamentan en evidencia suficiente para pensar que es posible reducir significativamente el número de casos contagiados y con esto, el número de pacientes que requerirán manejo hospitalario.(AU) ABSTRACT Introduction First case of COVID-19 in Colombia was diagnosed on March 6th. Two weeks later, cases have rapidly increased, leading the government to establish some mitigation measures. Objectives The first objective is to estimate and model the number of cases, use of hospital resources and mortality by using different R0 scenarios in a 1-month scenario (from March 18 to April 18, 2020), based on the different isolation measures applied. This work also aims to model, without establishing a time horizon, the same outcomes given the assumption that eventually 70% of the population will be infected. Materials and Methods Data on the number of confirmed cases in the country as of March 18, 2020 (n=93) were taken as the basis for the achievement of the first objective. An initial transmission rate of R0= 2.5 and a factor of 27 for undetected infections per each confirmed case were taken as assumptions for the model. The proportion of patients who may need intensive care or other in-hospital care was based on data from the Imperial College of London. On the other hand, an age-specific mortality rate provided by the Instituto Superiore di Sanità in Italy was used for the second objective. Results Based on the 93 cases reported as of March 18, if no mitigation measures were applied, by April 18, the country would have 613 037 cases. Mitigation measures that reduce R0 by 10% generate a 50% reduction in the number of cases. However, despite halving the number of cases, there would still be a shortfall in the number of beds required and only one in two patients would have access to this resource. Conclusion This model found that the mitigation measures implemented to date by the Colombian government and analyzed in this article are based on sufficient evidence and will help to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Colombia. Although a time horizon of one month was used for this model, it is plausible to believe that, if the current measures are sustained, the mitigation effect will also be sustained over time.(AU)

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