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PubMed; 2021.
Preprint in English | PubMed | ID: ppcovidwho-333853


WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS TOPIC?: The highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has begun to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. With slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant is expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in July-December 2021. WHAT IS ADDED BY THIS REPORT?: Data from nine mechanistic models project substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant. These resurgences, which have now been observed in most states, were projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. Reaching higher vaccine coverage in July-December 2021 reduces the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially. The expected impact of the outbreak is largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE?: Renewed efforts to increase vaccination uptake are critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower current vaccination coverage. Reaching higher vaccination goals in the coming months can potentially avert 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths and improve the ability to safely resume social contacts, and educational and business activities. Continued or renewed non-pharmaceutical interventions, including masking, can also help limit transmission, particularly as schools and businesses reopen.

Epidemiology and Infection ; 149:8, 2021.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-1537260


Nearly 1 year into the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, the first severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 vaccines received emergency use authorisation and vaccination campaigns began. A number of factors can reduce the averted burden of cases and deaths due to vaccination. Here, we use a dynamic model, parametrised with Bayesian inference methods, to assess the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (such as social distancing, mask mandates, school and workplace closure), and vaccine administration and uptake rates on infections and deaths averted in the United States. We show that scenarios depicting higher compliance with NPIs avert more than 60% of infections and 70% of deaths during the period of vaccine administration, and that increasing the vaccination rate from 5 to 11 million people per week could increase the averted burden by more than one-third. These findings underscore the importance of maintaining NPIs and increasing vaccine administration rates.

Contemporary Italian Politics ; 2021.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1228403


In the year of the pandemic, an unprecedented number of temporary advisory units (consisting of a wide range of experts) emerged in the Italian policy-making landscape to advise the government on ‘crisis management’ in different policy areas–attracting vast media attention. And yet, to date, very little is known about the actual role and composition of these bodies. Our article bridges this gap, mapping these ‘task forces’ so as to understand: i) their functions within policy-making during the pandemic;and ii) who are the experts sitting on these bodies and what expertise they bring to them. The analysis shows that the new advisory units were scarcely formalized, visible or transparent, and that (with some exceptions) they lacked influence. As for their components, a two-step cluster analysis allowed us to identify three ideal-types of experts–the mediator, the interpreter and the scientific expert–ultimately bringing a mix of skills to these exceptional advisory boards. ©, The Founding Editors, Contemporary Italian Politics.