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Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 19(17)2022 Aug 26.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2006013


BACKGROUND: The severe and critical cases of COVID-19 had high mortality rates. Clinical features, laboratory data, and radiological features provided important references for the assessment of COVID-19 severity. The machine learning analysis of clinico-radiological features, especially the quantitative computed tomography (CT) image analysis results, may achieve early, accurate, and fine-grained assessment of COVID-19 severity, which is an urgent clinical need. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate if machine learning algorithms using CT-based clinico-radiological features could achieve the accurate fine-grained assessment of COVID-19 severity. METHODS: The clinico-radiological features were collected from 78 COVID-19 patients with different severities. A neural network was developed to automatically measure the lesion volume from CT images. The severity was clinically diagnosed using two-type (severe and non-severe) and fine-grained four-type (mild, regular, severe, critical) classifications, respectively. To investigate the key features of COVID-19 severity, statistical analyses were performed between patients' clinico-radiological features and severity. Four machine learning algorithms (decision tree, random forest, SVM, and XGBoost) were trained and applied in the assessment of COVID-19 severity using clinico-radiological features. RESULTS: The CT imaging features (CTscore and lesion volume) were significantly related with COVID-19 severity (p < 0.05 in statistical analysis for both in two-type and fine-grained four-type classifications). The CT imaging features significantly improved the accuracy of machine learning algorithms in assessing COVID-19 severity in the fine-grained four-type classification. With CT analysis results added, the four-type classification achieved comparable performance to the two-type one. CONCLUSIONS: CT-based clinico-radiological features can provide an important reference for the accurate fine-grained assessment of illness severity using machine learning to achieve the early triage of COVID-19 patients.

COVID-19 , Algorithms , COVID-19/diagnostic imaging , Humans , Machine Learning , Neural Networks, Computer , Tomography, X-Ray Computed/methods
Ther Clin Risk Manag ; 17: 553-561, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1262577


BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a worldwide public health pandemic with a high mortality rate, among severe cases. The disease is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus. It is important to ensure early detection of the virus to curb disease progression to severe COVID-19. This study aims to establish a clinical-nomogram model to predict the progression to severe COVID-19 in a timely and efficient manner. METHODS: This retrospective study included 202 patients with COVID-19 who were admitted to the Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University and Shiyan Taihe Hospital from January 17 to April 30, 2020. The patients were randomly assigned to the training dataset (n = 163, with 43 progressing to severe COVID-19) or the validation dataset (n = 39, with 10 progressing to severe COVID-19) at a ratio of 8:2. The optimal subset algorithm was applied to filter for the clinical factors most relevant to the disease progression. Based on these factors, the logistic regression model was fit to distinguish severe (including severe and critical cases) from non-severe (including mild and moderate cases) COVID-19. Sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) were calculated using the R software package to evaluate prediction performance. A clinical nomogram was established and performance assessed using the discrimination curve. RESULTS: Risk factors, including demographic data, symptoms, laboratory and image findings, were recorded for the 202 patients. Eight of the 53 variables that were entered into the selection process were selected via the best subset algorithm to establish the predictive model; they included gender, age, BMI, CRP, D-dimer, TP, ALB, and involved-lobe. AUC, sensitivity, and specificity were 0.91, 0.84 and 0.86 for the training dataset, and 0.87, 0.66, and 0.80 for the validation dataset. CONCLUSION: We established an efficient and reliable clinical nomogram model which showed that gender, age, and initial indexes including BMI, CRP, D-dimer, involved-lobe, TP, and ALB could predict the risk of progression to severe COVID-19.

Clin Imaging ; 78: 223-229, 2021 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1077833


PURPOSE: To evaluate whether the extent of COVID-19 pneumonia on CT scans using quantitative CT imaging obtained early in the illness can predict its future severity. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective single-center study on confirmed COVID-19 patients between January 18, 2020 and March 5, 2020. A quantitative AI algorithm was used to evaluate each patient's CT scan to determine the proportion of the lungs with pneumonia (VR) and the rate of change (RAR) in VR from scan to scan. Patients were classified as being in the severe or non-severe group based on their final symptoms. Penalized B-splines regression modeling was used to examine the relationship between mean VR and days from onset of symptoms in the two groups, with 95% and 99% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Median VR max was 18.6% (IQR 9.1-32.7%) in 21 patients in the severe group, significantly higher (P < 0.0001) than in the 53 patients in non-severe group (1.8% (IQR 0.4-5.7%)). RAR was increasing with a median RAR of 2.1% (IQR 0.4-5.5%) in severe and 0.4% (IQR 0.1-0.9%) in non-severe group, which was significantly different (P < 0.0001). Penalized B-spline analyses showed positive relationships between VR and days from onset of symptom. The 95% confidence limits of the predicted means for the two groups diverged 5 days after the onset of initial symptoms with a threshold of 11.9%. CONCLUSION: Five days after the initial onset of symptoms, CT could predict the patients who later developed severe symptoms with 95% confidence.

COVID-19 , Humans , Lung , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , Tomography, X-Ray Computed