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Eur Phys J Spec Top ; : 1-10, 2022 Mar 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2193968


The forecasting of the nature and dynamics of emerging coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has gained a great concern for health care organizations and governments. The efforts aim to to suppress the rapid and global spread of its tentacles and also control the infection with the limited available resources. The aim of this work is to employ real data set to propose and analyze a compartmental discrete time COVID-19 pandemic model with non-linear incidence and hence predict and control its outbreak through dynamical research. The Basic Reproduction Number ( R 0 ) is calculated analytically to study the disease-free steady state ( R 0 < 1 ), and also the permanency case ( R 0 > 1 ) of the disease. Numerical results show that the transmission rates α > 0 and ß > 0 are quite effective in reducing the COVID-19 infections in India or any country. The fitting and predictive capability of the proposed discrete-time system are presented for relishing the effect of disease through stability analysis using real data sets.

Biophysics (Oxf) ; 67(2): 231-244, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1909621


This paper attempts to describe the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (COVID-19) via an epidemic model. This virus has dissimilar effects in different countries. The number of new active coronavirus cases is increasing gradually across the globe. India is now in the second stage of COVID-19 spreading, it will be an epidemic very quickly if proper protection is not undertaken based on the database of the transmission of the disease. This paper is using the current data of COVID-19 for the mathematical modeling and its dynamical analysis. We bring in a new representation to appraise and manage the outbreak of infectious disease COVID-19 through SEQIR pandemic model, which is based on the supposition that the infected but undetected by testing individuals are send to quarantine during the incubation period. During the incubation period if any individual be infected by COVID-19, then that confirmed infected individuals are isolated and the necessary treatments are arranged so that they cannot taint the other residents in the community. Dynamics of the SEQIR model is presented by basic reproduction number R 0 and the comprehensive stability analysis. Numerical results are depicted through apt graphical appearances using the data of five states and India.

Comput Math Methods Med ; 2022: 2684055, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1807680


This paper is devoted to answering some questions using a mathematical model by analyzing India's first and second phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. A new mathematical model is introduced with a nonmonotonic incidence rate to incorporate the psychological effect of COVID-19 in society. The paper also discusses the local stability and global stability of an endemic equilibrium and a disease-free equilibrium. The basic reproduction number is evaluated using the proposed COVID-19 model for disease spread in India based on the actual data sets. The study of nonperiodic solutions at a positive equilibrium point is also analyzed. The model is rigorously studied using MATLAB to alert the decision-making bodies to hinder the emergence of any other pandemic outbreaks or the arrival of subsequent pandemic waves. This paper shows the excellent prediction of the first wave and very commanding for the second wave. The exciting results of the paper are as follows: (i) psychological effect on the human population has an impact on propagation; (ii) lockdown is a suitable technique mathematically to control the COVID spread; (iii) different variants produce different waves; (iv) the peak value always crosses its past value.

COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Humans , Pandemics/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Vaccination