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1.
JTCVS Open ; 7: 63-71, 2021 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1260883

ABSTRACT

Objective: The aim of this study was to model the short term and 2-year overall survival (OS) for intermediate-risk and low-risk patients with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis (AS) undergoing timely or delayed transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) during the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Methods: We developed a decision analysis model to evaluate 2 treatment strategies for both low-risk and intermediate-risk patients with AS during the COVID-19 novel coronavirus pandemic. Results: Prompt TAVR resulted in improved 2-year OS compared with delayed intervention for intermediate-risk patients (0.81 vs 0.67) and low-risk patients (0.95 vs 0.85), owing to the risk of death or the need for urgent/emergent TAVR in the waiting period. However, if the probability of acquiring COVID-19 novel coronavirus is >55% (intermediate-risk patients) or 47% (low-risk patients), delayed TAVR is favored over prompt intervention (0.66 vs 0.67 for intermediate risk; 0.84 vs 0.85 for low risk). Conclusions: Prompt transcatheter aortic valve replacement for both intermediate-risk and low-risk patients with symptomatic severe AS results in improved 2-year survival when local healthcare system resources are not significantly constrained by the COVID-19.

2.
Surg Endosc ; 35(11): 6081-6088, 2021 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-898015

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Surgical society guidelines have recommended changing the treatment strategy for early esophageal cancer during the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Delaying resection can allow for interim disease progression, but the impact of this delay on mortality is unknown. The COVID-19 infection rate at which immediate operative risk exceeds benefit is unknown. We sought to model immediate versus delayed surgical resection in a T1b esophageal adenocarcinoma. METHODS: A decision analysis model was developed, and sensitivity analyses performed. The base case was a 65-year-old male smoker presenting with cT1b esophageal adenocarcinoma scheduled for esophagectomy during the COVID-19 pandemic. We compared immediate surgical resection to delayed resection after 3 months. The likelihood of key outcomes was derived from the literature where available. The outcome was 5-year overall survival. RESULTS: Proceeding with immediate esophagectomy for the base case scenario resulted in slightly improved 5-year overall survival when compared to delaying surgery by 3 months (5-year overall survival 0.74 for immediate and 0.73 for delayed resection). In sensitivity analyses, a delayed approach became preferred when the probability of perioperative COVID-19 infection increased above 7%. CONCLUSIONS: Immediate resection of early esophageal cancer during the COVID-19 pandemic did not decrease 5-year survival when compared to resection after 3 months for the base case scenario. However, as the risk of perioperative COVID-19 infection increases above 7%, a delayed approach has improved 5-year survival. This balance should be frequently re-examined by surgeons as infection risk changes in each hospital and community throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Esophageal Neoplasms , Aged , Esophageal Neoplasms/pathology , Esophageal Neoplasms/surgery , Esophagectomy , Humans , Male , Neoplasm Staging , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Treatment Outcome
3.
Obes Surg ; 31(3): 1387-1391, 2021 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-891921

ABSTRACT

We developed a decision analysis model to evaluate risks and benefits of delaying scheduled bariatric surgery during the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Our base case was a 45-year-old female with diabetes and a body mass index of 45 kg/m2. We compared immediate with delayed surgery after 6 months to allow for COVID-19 prevalence to decrease. We found that immediate and delayed bariatric surgeries after 6 months resulted in similar 20-year overall survival. When the probability of COVID-19 infection exceeded 4%, then delayed surgery improved survival. If future COVID-19 infection rates were at least half those in the immediate scenario, then immediate surgery was favored and local infection rates had to exceed 9% before surgical delay improved survival. Surgeons should consider local disease prevalence and patient comorbidities associated with increased mortality before resuming bariatric surgery programs.


Subject(s)
Bariatric Surgery , COVID-19/epidemiology , Obesity, Morbid/surgery , Body Mass Index , Clinical Decision-Making , Comorbidity , Databases, Factual , Decision Support Techniques , Diabetes Complications , Diabetes Mellitus , Female , Humans , Middle Aged , Prevalence , SARS-CoV-2
4.
Ann Thorac Surg ; 112(1): 248-254, 2021 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-871748

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has led surgical societies to recommend delaying diagnosis and treatment of suspected lung cancer for lesions less than 2 cm. Delaying diagnosis can lead to disease progression, but the impact of this delay on mortality is unknown. The COVID-19 infection rate at which immediate operative risk exceeds benefit is unknown. We sought to model immediate versus delayed surgical resection in a suspicious lung nodule less than 2 cm. METHODS: A decision analysis model was developed, and sensitivity analyses performed. The base case was a 65-year-old male smoker with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease presenting for surgical biopsy of a 1.5 to 2 cm lung nodule highly suspicious for cancer during the COVID-19 pandemic. We compared immediate surgical resection to delayed resection after 3 months. The likelihood of key outcomes was derived from the literature where available. The outcome was 5-year overall survival. RESULTS: Immediate surgical resection resulted in a similar but slightly higher 5-year overall survival when compared with delayed resection (0.77 versus 0.74) owing to the risk of disease progression. However, if the probability of acquired COVID-19 infection is greater than 13%, delayed resection is favorable (0.74 vs 0.73). CONCLUSIONS: Immediate surgical biopsy of lung nodules suspicious for cancer in hospitals with low COVID-19 prevalence likely results in improved 5-year survival. However, as the risk of perioperative COVID-19 infection increases above 13%, a delayed approach has similar or improved survival. This balance should be frequently reexamined at each health care facility throughout the curve of the pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung/surgery , Delayed Diagnosis/mortality , Lung Neoplasms/surgery , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Aged , Biopsy , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/mortality , Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung/etiology , Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung/mortality , Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung/pathology , Computer Simulation , Decision Support Techniques , Delayed Diagnosis/adverse effects , Disease Progression , Humans , Lung Neoplasms/etiology , Lung Neoplasms/mortality , Lung Neoplasms/pathology , Male , Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/etiology , Risk , Smoking/adverse effects , Time Factors
5.
Ann Thorac Surg ; 110(2): 692-696, 2020 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-701363

ABSTRACT

The extraordinary demands of managing the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the world's ability to care for patients with thoracic malignancies. As a hospital's COVID-19 population increases and hospital resources are depleted, the ability to provide surgical care is progressively restricted, forcing surgeons to prioritize among their cancer populations. Representatives from multiple cancer, surgical, and research organizations have come together to provide a guide for triaging patients with thoracic malignancies as the impact of COVID-19 evolves as each hospital.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Medical Oncology/organization & administration , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Thoracic Neoplasms/surgery , Thoracic Surgery/organization & administration , Triage , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Consensus , Humans , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Thoracic Surgical Procedures
6.
J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg ; 160(2): 601-605, 2020 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-46092

ABSTRACT

The extraordinary demands of managing the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the world's ability to care for patients with thoracic malignancies. As a hospital's COVID-19 population increases and hospital resources are depleted, the ability to provide surgical care is progressively restricted, forcing surgeons to prioritize among their cancer populations. Representatives from multiple cancer, surgical, and research organizations have come together to provide a guide for triaging patients with thoracic malignancies as the impact of COVID-19 evolves as each hospital.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus/pathogenicity , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Delivery of Health Care, Integrated/organization & administration , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Thoracic Neoplasms/surgery , Thoracic Surgical Procedures , Triage/organization & administration , COVID-19 , Clinical Decision-Making , Consensus , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Health Services Needs and Demand/organization & administration , Host Microbial Interactions , Humans , Needs Assessment/organization & administration , Occupational Health , Pandemics , Patient Safety , Patient Selection , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , Pneumonia, Viral/virology , Risk Assessment , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , Thoracic Neoplasms/epidemiology , Thoracic Surgical Procedures/adverse effects , Time-to-Treatment
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