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1.
The European Journal of Finance ; : 1-19, 2022.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-2096977

ABSTRACT

We forecast realized variance (RV) of Real Estate Investment Trusts for 10 leading markets and regions, derived from 5-minutes-interval intraday data, based on the information content of two alternative metrics of daily oil-price uncertainty. Based on the period of the analysis covering January 2008 to July 2020, and using variants of the popular MIDAS-RV model, augmented to include oil market uncertainties, captured by its RV (also derived from 5-minute intraday data) and implied volatility (i.e. the oil VIX), we report evidence of significant statistical and economic gains in the forecasting performance. The result is robust to the size of the forecasting samples, including that of the COVID-19 period, lag-length, nonlinearities, asymmetric effects, and forecast horizon. Our results have important implications for investors and policymakers.

2.
Finance Research Letters ; : 103266, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1996171

ABSTRACT

We investigate the effect of the probability of fatality due to contagious diseases on real gold returns over the period 1258–2020 using a predictive quantile regression model, which is justified by the features of non-normality, nonlinearity, and structural breaks in the dataset involving real gold returns and the probability of fatality. We show that real gold returns hedge the probability of fatality due to contagious diseases primarily when the gold market is bullish. However, the hedging ability is insignificant when the gold market is bearish. These results are important for investors seeking refuge in gold during rare disaster events.

3.
Empirical economics ; : 1-25, 2022.
Article in English | EuropePMC | ID: covidwho-1696216

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates whether the real interest rate parity (RIRP) is valid during the three waves of globalizations that occurred in the last 150 years (1870–1914, 1944–1971, 1989 to the present). If any, these periods should favor RIRP, since globalization is a process where economies and financial markets become increasingly integrated into a global economic system. In contrast to the existing literature, we model the departures from RIRP as a long-term memory process and apply fractional integration methods on a sample of real interest rate differentials of seven developed countries: France, Germany, Holland, Italy, Japan, Spain, and the UK across the three globalization waves paired against the USA. We compute impulse response functions (IRF) to gain further insight into the memory characteristics of the RIRP differential processes and provide half-life estimates. We find that deviations from RIRP are mean reverting, providing robust evidence of real interest rate convergence during the three globalization waves. We shed further light on financial and commodity market integration during the three globalization waves by assessing the memory properties of uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) and relative purchasing power parity (PPP) differential processes. We find that deviations from relative PPP and UIP are not always mean-reverting processes. RIRP, relative PPP, and UIP hold simultaneously only in 7 out of 21 cases;RIRP and UIP hold in 11 out of 21 cases;RIRP hold without the support of relative PPP and UIP in 3 out of 21 cases. Thus, the evidence in favor of real interest rate convergence appears to be driven more by UIP than relative PPP. All these results are, to the authors knowledge, new to the literature.

4.
Journal of Risk and Financial Management ; 15(1):18, 2022.
Article in English | MDPI | ID: covidwho-1613870

ABSTRACT

In the context of the great turmoil in the financial markets caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the predictability of daily infectious diseases-related uncertainty (EMVID) for international stock markets volatilities is examined using heterogeneous autoregressive realised variance (HAR-RV) models. A recursive estimation approach in the short-, medium- and long-run out-of-sample predictability is considered and the main findings show that the EMVID index plays a significant role in forecasting the volatility of international stock markets. Furthermore, the results suggest that the most vulnerable stock markets to EMVID are those in Singapore, Portugal and The Netherlands. The implications of these results for investors and portfolio managers amid high levels of uncertainty resulting from infectious diseases are discussed.

5.
EuropePMC; 2021.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-295111

ABSTRACT

Utilizing a measure of the Bitcoin network's daily electricity load, we document a signifcant volatility effect of Bitcoin mining activity in three prominent electricity markets in the U.S. The volatility effect is found to be increasing over time, particularly with the widespread lockdowns enforced due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The fndings provide novel insight to the non-virtual side of mining and trading of cryptocurrencies and underscore the need for establishing mechanisms to prevent possible destabilizing effects of this growing industry, both from a power consumption and carbon emissions perspective.

6.
Financ Res Lett ; 47: 102519, 2022 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1487726

ABSTRACT

In this study, we offer a global perspective on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on financial markets using a multi-country Threshold-Augmented Global Vector Autoregressive Model of Chudik et al. (2020). We document a negative impact of the pandemic on real equity prices across countries (except the United States) and country groupings with the highest negative impact recorded in 2020Q2. The biggest losers are the emerging economies while the biggest gainers are the United States whose real stock prices remain positive and the Euro Area that achieved real exchange rate appreciation when the financial markets were mostly vulnerable. Our results support the effectiveness of the quantitative easing policy regime in the Euro Area during the COVID-19 pandemic and also suggest hedging role for the US stocks among other suggested safe assets.

7.
Energies ; 14(20):6775, 2021.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1480662

ABSTRACT

We examine the predictive value of gold-to-silver and gold-to-platinum price ratios, as proxies for global risks affecting the realized variance (RV) of oil-price movements, using monthly data over the longest available periods of 1915:01–2021:03 and 1968:01–2021:03, respectively. Using the two ratios, we find statistically significant evidence of in-sample predictability for increases in RV for both ratios. This finding also translates into statistically significant out-of-sample forecasting gains derived from these two ratios for RV. Given the importance of real-time forecasts of the volatility of oil-price movements, our results have important implications for investors and policymakers.

8.
Economics Letters ; : 110111, 2021.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1471954

ABSTRACT

Utilizing a measure of the Bitcoin network’s daily electricity load, we document a significant volatility effect of Bitcoin mining activity in three prominent electricity markets in the U.S. The volatility effect is found to be increasing over time, particularly with the widespread lockdowns enforced due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings provide novel insight to the non-virtual side of mining and trading of cryptocurrencies and underscore the need for establishing mechanisms to prevent possible destabilizing effects of this growing industry, both from a power consumption and carbon emissions perspective.

9.
Emerging Markets Finance and Trade ; : 1-9, 2021.
Article in English | Taylor & Francis | ID: covidwho-1462097
10.
Risks ; 9(9):168, 2021.
Article in English | MDPI | ID: covidwho-1410842

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study is to understand the effect of the recent novel coronavirus pandemic on investor herding behavior in global stock markets. Utilizing a daily newspaper-based index of financial uncertainty associated with infectious diseases, we examine the association between pandemic-induced market uncertainty and herding behavior in a set of 49 global stock markets. More specifically, we study the pattern of cross-sectional market behavior and examine whether the pandemic-induced uncertainty drives directional similarity across the global stock markets that cannot be explained by the standard asset pricing models. Utilizing a time-varying variation of the static herding model, we first identify periods during which herding is detected. We then employ probit models to examine the possible association between pandemic-induced uncertainty and the formation of herding. Our findings show a strong association between herd formation in stock markets and COVID-19 induced market uncertainty. The herding effect of COVID-19 induced market uncertainty is particularly strong for emerging stock markets as well as European PIIGS stock markets that include some of the hardest hit economies in Europe by the pandemic. The findings establish a direct link between the recent pandemic and herd formation among market participants in global financial markets. Considering the evidence that herding behavior can drive security prices away from equilibrium values supported by fundamentals and further contribute to price fluctuations in financial markets, our findings have significant implications for policy makers and investors in their efforts to monitor investor sentiment and mitigate mis-valuations that might occur as a result. Furthermore, the evidence on the behavioral pattern of stock investors in relation to infectious diseases uncertainty can be useful in studying price discovery in stock markets and might help market participants in forming hedging strategies to mitigate downside risk in their investment portfolios.

11.
Entropy (Basel) ; 23(8)2021 Aug 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1376757

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we investigate the time-varying interconnectedness of international Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) markets using daily REIT prices in twelve major REIT countries since the Global Financial Crisis. We construct dynamic total, net total and net pairwise return and volatility connectedness measures to better understand systemic risk and the transmission of shocks across REIT markets. Our findings show that that REIT market interdependence is dynamic and increases significantly during times of heightened uncertainty, including the COVID-19 pandemic. We also find that the US REIT market along with major European REITs are generally sources of shocks to Asian-Pacific REIT markets. Furthermore, US REITs appear to dominate European REITs. These findings highlight that portfolio diversification opportunities decline during times of market uncertainty.

12.
Energies ; 14(14):4173, 2021.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1323175

ABSTRACT

We use a dataset for the group of G7 countries and China to study the out-of-sample predictive value of uncertainty and its international spillovers for the realized variance of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate and Brent) over the sample period from 1996Q1 to 2020Q4. Using the Lasso estimator, we found evidence that uncertainty and international spillovers had predictive value for the realized variance at intermediate (two quarters) and long (one year) forecasting horizons in several of the forecasting models that we studied. This result holds also for upside (good) and downside (bad) variance, and irrespective of whether we used a recursive or a rolling estimation window. Our results have important implications for investors and policymakers.

13.
Sustainability ; 13(6):3042, 2021.
Article in English | MDPI | ID: covidwho-1125657

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic threatens to derail progress achieved in sustainable development. This study investigates the effectiveness of government policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, namely the number of deaths. Using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) dataset for a global sample of countries between March and September 2020, we find a non-linear association between government response indices and the number of deaths. Less stringent interventions increase the number of deaths, whereas more severe responses to the pandemic can lower fatalities. The outcomes are similar for a sample of countries disaggregated by regions. These findings can be informative for policymakers in their efforts to mitigate the spread of the virus and save lives.

14.
Finance Research Letters ; : 101936, 2021.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1036713

ABSTRACT

We examine the forecasting power of a daily newspaper-based index of uncertainty associated with infectious diseases (EMVID) for gold market returns volatility via the heterogeneous autoregressive realized variance (HAR-RV) model. Our results show that the EMVID index increases realized variance (RV) at the highest level of statistical significance within-sample, while it improves the forecast accuracy of gold realized variance at short-, medium-, and long-run horizons in a statistically significant manner. Importantly, by assessing the role of this index during the recent pandemic, we find strong evidence for its critical role in forecasting gold RV. Such evidence has important portfolio implications for investors during the current period of unprecedented levels of uncertainty resulting from the outbreak of COVID-19.

15.
International Review of Financial Analysis ; : 101646, 2020.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-939001

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we show evidence of a dramatic change in the structure and time-varying patterns of return connectedness across various assets (gold, crude oil, world equities, currencies, and bonds) around the COVID-19 outbreak. Using the TVP-VAR connectedness approach, the results show that the dynamic total connectedness across the five assets was moderate and quite stable until early 2020. After that, the total connectedness spikes and the structure of the network of connectedness alters, which concurs with the COVID-19 outbreak. The equity and USD indices are the primary transmitters of shocks before the outbreak, whereas the bond index becomes the main transmitters of shocks during the COVID-19 outbreak. However, the USD index is a net receiver of shocks to other assets during the outbreak period. Furthermore, using a recently developed newspaper-based index of uncertainty in financial markets due to infectious diseases to capture the recent impact of COVID-19, we find that connectedness is positively related to this index, and increases at higher levels (conditional quantiles) of connectedness. Overall, our results reflect the speedy disturbing effects of the COVID-19 outbreak, which matters to the formulations of policies seeking to achieve financial stability. The results also indicate a possibility to threaten investors’ portfolios and fade the benefits of diversification.

16.
International Review of Economics & Finance ; 2020.
Article | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-779058

ABSTRACT

This paper analyses the impact of a newspaper-based uncertainty associated with infectious diseases (EMVID) on the level, slope and curvature factors derived from the term structure of interest rates of the US covering maturities from 1 year to 30 years. Results from nonlinearity and structural break tests indicate the misspecification of the linear causality model and point to the suitability of applying a time-varying model. A DCC-MGARCH framework is thus applied and the results indicate significant predictability of the three latent factors from the EMVID index at each point of the entire sample, and also provide evidence of instantaneous spillover. Finally, the results of measuring safe-haven characteristic of the US Treasury market show that US treasuries with long-term maturities as captured by the level factor are consistently negatively correlated with the EMVID index, i.e., they act as a safe-haven, with the slope factor (medium-term maturities) following this trend since 2007, and the slope factor (short-term maturities) also showing signs of a safe-haven since May of 2020. Overall, the findings provide reasonable evidence that US Treasury securities can hedge the risks associated with the financial market in the wake of the current COVID-19 pandemic.

17.
Energies ; 15(13)20200801.
Article in English | WHO COVID, ELSEVIER | ID: covidwho-760897

ABSTRACT

We examine the predictive power of a daily newspaper-based index of uncertainty associated with infectious diseases (EMVID) for oil-market volatility. Using the heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility (HAR-RV) model, we document a positive effect of the EMVID index on the realized volatility of crude oil prices at the highest level of statistical significance, within-sample. Importantly, we show that incorporating EMVID into a forecasting setting significantly improves the forecast accuracy of oil realized volatility at short-, medium-, and long-run horizons. Our findings comprise important implications for investors and risk managers during the unprecedented episode of high uncertainty resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.

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