Your browser doesn't support javascript.
Show: 20 | 50 | 100
Results 1 - 20 de 21
Filter
1.
Relph, Katharine A.; Russell, Clark D.; Fairfield, Cameron J.; Turtle, Lance, de Silva, Thushan I.; Siggins, Matthew K.; Drake, Thomas M.; Thwaites, Ryan S.; Abrams, Simon, Moore, Shona C.; Hardwick, Hayley E.; Oosthuyzen, Wilna, Harrison, Ewen M.; Docherty, Annemarie B.; Openshaw, Peter J. M.; Baillie, J. Kenneth, Semple, Malcolm G.; Ho, Antonia, Baillie, J. Kenneth, Semple, Malcolm G.; Openshaw, Peter J. M.; Carson, Gail, Alex, Beatrice, Bach, Benjamin, Barclay, Wendy S.; Bogaert, Debby, Chand, Meera, Cooke, Graham S.; Docherty, Annemarie B.; Dunning, Jake, Filipe, Ana da Silva, Fletcher, Tom, Green, Christopher A.; Harrison, Ewen M.; Hiscox, Julian A.; Ho, Antonia Ying Wai, Horby, Peter W.; Ijaz, Samreen, Khoo, Saye, Klenerman, Paul, Law, Andrew, Lim, Wei Shen, Mentzer, Alexander J.; Merson, Laura, Meynert, Alison M.; Noursadeghi, Mahdad, Moore, Shona C.; Palmarini, Massimo, Paxton, William A.; Pollakis, Georgios, Price, Nicholas, Rambaut, Andrew, Robertson, David L.; Russell, Clark D.; Sancho-Shimizu, Vanessa, Scott, Janet T.; de Silva, Thushan, Sigfrid, Louise, Solomon, Tom, Sriskandan, Shiranee, Stuart, David, Summers, Charlotte, Tedder, Richard S.; Thomson, Emma C.; Roger Thompson, A. A.; Thwaites, Ryan S.; Turtle, Lance C. W.; Gupta, Rishi K.; Zambon, Maria, Hardwick, Hayley, Donohue, Chloe, Lyons, Ruth, Griffiths, Fiona, Oosthuyzen, Wilna, Norman, Lisa, Pius, Riinu, Drake, Thomas M.; Fairfield, Cameron J.; Knight, Stephen R.; McLean, Kenneth A.; Murphy, Derek, Shaw, Catherine A.; Dalton, Jo, Girvan, Michelle, Saviciute, Egle, Roberts, Stephanie, Harrison, Janet, Marsh, Laura, Connor, Marie, Halpin, Sophie, Jackson, Clare, Gamble, Carrol, Leeming, Gary, Law, Andrew, Wham, Murray, Clohisey, Sara, Hendry, Ross, Scott-Brown, James, Greenhalf, William, Shaw, Victoria, McDonald, Sara, Keating, Seán, Ahmed, Katie A.; Armstrong, Jane A.; Ashworth, Milton, Asiimwe, Innocent G.; Bakshi, Siddharth, Barlow, Samantha L.; Booth, Laura, Brennan, Benjamin, Bullock, Katie, Catterall, Benjamin W. A.; Clark, Jordan J.; Clarke, Emily A.; Cole, Sarah, Cooper, Louise, Cox, Helen, Davis, Christopher, Dincarslan, Oslem, Dunn, Chris, Dyer, Philip, Elliott, Angela, Evans, Anthony, Finch, Lorna, Fisher, Lewis W. S.; Foster, Terry, Garcia-Dorival, Isabel, Greenhalf, William, Gunning, Philip, Hartley, Catherine, Jensen, Rebecca L.; Jones, Christopher B.; Jones, Trevor R.; Khandaker, Shadia, King, Katharine, Kiy, Robyn T.; Koukorava, Chrysa, Lake, Annette, Lant, Suzannah, Latawiec, Diane, Lavelle-Langham, Lara, Lefteri, Daniella, Lett, Lauren, Livoti, Lucia A.; Mancini, Maria, McDonald, Sarah, McEvoy, Laurence, McLauchlan, John, Metelmann, Soeren, Miah, Nahida S.; Middleton, Joanna, Mitchell, Joyce, Moore, Shona C.; Murphy, Ellen G.; Penrice-Randal, Rebekah, Pilgrim, Jack, Prince, Tessa, Reynolds, Will, Matthew Ridley, P.; Sales, Debby, Shaw, Victoria E.; Shears, Rebecca K.; Small, Benjamin, Subramaniam, Krishanthi S.; Szemiel, Agnieska, Taggart, Aislynn, Tanianis-Hughes, Jolanta, Thomas, Jordan, Trochu, Erwan, van Tonder, Libby, Wilcock, Eve, Eunice Zhang, J.; Flaherty, Lisa, Maziere, Nicole, Cass, Emily, Doce Carracedo, Alejandra, Carlucci, Nicola, Holmes, Anthony, Massey, Hannah, Murphy, Lee, Wrobel, Nicola, McCafferty, Sarah, Morrice, Kirstie, MacLean, Alan, Adeniji, Kayode, Agranoff, Daniel, Agwuh, Ken, Ail, Dhiraj, Aldera, Erin L.; Alegria, Ana, Angus, Brian, Ashish, Abdul, Atkinson, Dougal, Bari, Shahedal, Barlow, Gavin, Barnass, Stella, Barrett, Nicholas, Bassford, Christopher, Basude, Sneha, Baxter, David, Beadsworth, Michael, Bernatoniene, Jolanta, Berridge, John, Best, Nicola, Bothma, Pieter, Chadwick, David, Brittain-Long, Robin, Bulteel, Naomi, Burden, Tom, Burtenshaw, Andrew, Caruth, Vikki, Chadwick, David, Chambler, Duncan, Chee, Nigel, Child, Jenny, Chukkambotla, Srikanth, Clark, Tom, Collini, Paul, Cosgrove, Catherine, Cupitt, Jason, Cutino-Moguel, Maria-Teresa, Dark, Paul, Dawson, Chris, Dervisevic, Samir, Donnison, Phil, Douthwaite, Sam, DuRand, Ingrid, Dushianthan, Ahilanadan, Dyer, Tristan, Evans, Cariad, Eziefula, Chi, Fegan, Christopher, Finn, Adam, Fullerton, Duncan, Garg, Sanjeev, Garg, Sanjeev, Garg, Atul, Gkrania-Klotsas, Effrossyni, Godden, Jo, Goldsmith, Arthur, Graham, Clive, Hardy, Elaine, Hartshorn, Stuart, Harvey, Daniel, Havalda, Peter, Hawcutt, Daniel B.; Hobrok, Maria, Hodgson, Luke, Hormis, Anil, Jacobs, Michael, Jain, Susan, Jennings, Paul, Kaliappan, Agilan, Kasipandian, Vidya, Kegg, Stephen, Kelsey, Michael, Kendall, Jason, Kerrison, Caroline, Kerslake, Ian, Koch, Oliver, Koduri, Gouri, Koshy, George, Laha, Shondipon, Laird, Steven, Larkin, Susan, Leiner, Tamas, Lillie, Patrick, Limb, James, Linnett, Vanessa, Little, Jeff, Lyttle, Mark, MacMahon, Michael, MacNaughton, Emily, Mankregod, Ravish, Masson, Huw, Matovu, Elijah, McCullough, Katherine, McEwen, Ruth, Meda, Manjula, Mills, Gary, Minton, Jane, Mirfenderesky, Mariyam, Mohandas, Kavya, Mok, Quen, Moon, James, Moore, Elinoor, Morgan, Patrick, Morris, Craig, Mortimore, Katherine, Moses, Samuel, Mpenge, Mbiye, Mulla, Rohinton, Murphy, Michael, Nagel, Megan, Nagarajan, Thapas, Nelson, Mark, O’Shea, Matthew K.; Otahal, Igor, Ostermann, Marlies, Pais, Mark, Panchatsharam, Selva, Papakonstantinou, Danai, Paraiso, Hassan, Patel, Brij, Pattison, Natalie, Pepperell, Justin, Peters, Mark, Phull, Mandeep, Pintus, Stefania, Pooni, Jagtur Singh, Post, Frank, Price, David, Prout, Rachel, Rae, Nikolas, Reschreiter, Henrik, Reynolds, Tim, Richardson, Neil, Roberts, Mark, Roberts, Devender, Rose, Alistair, Rousseau, Guy, Ryan, Brendan, Saluja, Taranprit, Shah, Aarti, Shanmuga, Prad, Sharma, Anil, Shawcross, Anna, Sizer, Jeremy, Shankar-Hari, Manu, Smith, Richard, Snelson, Catherine, Spittle, Nick, Staines, Nikki, Stambach, Tom, Stewart, Richard, Subudhi, Pradeep, Szakmany, Tamas, Tatham, Kate, Thomas, Jo, Thompson, Chris, Thompson, Robert, Tridente, Ascanio, Tupper-Carey, Darell, Twagira, Mary, Ustianowski, Andrew, Vallotton, Nick, Vincent-Smith, Lisa, Visuvanathan, Shico, Vuylsteke, Alan, Waddy, Sam, Wake, Rachel, Walden, Andrew, Welters, Ingeborg, Whitehouse, Tony, Whittaker, Paul, Whittington, Ashley, Papineni, Padmasayee, Wijesinghe, Meme, Williams, Martin, Wilson, Lawrence, Cole, Sarah, Winchester, Stephen, Wiselka, Martin, Wolverson, Adam, Wootton, Daniel G.; Workman, Andrew, Yates, Bryan, Young, Peter.
Open Forum Infectious Diseases ; 9(5), 2022.
Article in English | PMC | ID: covidwho-1821760

ABSTRACT

Admission procalcitonin measurements and microbiology results were available for 1040 hospitalized adults with coronavirus disease 2019 (from 48 902 included in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium World Health Organization Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK study). Although procalcitonin was higher in bacterial coinfection, this was neither clinically significant (median [IQR], 0.33 [0.11–1.70] ng/mL vs 0.24 [0.10–0.90] ng/mL) nor diagnostically useful (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.56 [95% confidence interval, .51–.60]).

2.
EuropePMC; 2021.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-315194

ABSTRACT

Background: Emergency hospital admissions for infection often lack microbiological diagnostic certainty. Novel approaches to discriminate likelihood of bacterial and viral infections are required to support antimicrobial prescribing decisions and infection control practice. We sought to derive and validate a blood transcriptional signature to differentiate bacterial infections from viral infections including COVID-19.Methods: Blood RNA sequencing was performed on a discovery cohort of adults attending the Emergency Department with confirmed bacteraemia or viral infection. Differentially expressed host genes were subjected to feature selection to derive the most parsimonious discriminating signature. RT-qPCR validation of the signature was then performed in a prospective cohort of patients presenting with undifferentiated fever and a second case-control cohort of patients with bacteraemia or COVID-19.Findings: A 3-gene transcript signature was derived from the discovery cohort of 56 definite bacterial and 27 viral infection cases. In the validation cohort, the signature differentiated bacterial and viral infections with an area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.976 (95% CI: 0.919-1.000), sensitivity 97.3% and specificity of 100%. The AUC for C-reactive protein and leucocyte count was 0.833 (95% CI: 0.694-0.944) and 0.938 (95% CI: 0.840-0.986) respectively. In the second validation analysis the signature discriminated 34 SARS-CoV-2 positive COVID-19 from 35 bacterial infections with AUC of 0.953 (95% CI: 0.893-0.992), sensitivity 88.6% and specificity of 94.1%.Interpretation: This novel 3-gene signature discriminates viral infections including COVID-19 from bacterial sepsis in adults, outperforming both leucocyte count and CRP, thus potentially providing significant clinical utility in managing acute presentations with infection.Funding Statement: Work in this study was funded by the NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, the Medical Research Council, the Wellcome Trust and the European Union FP7 (EC-GA 279185) (EUCLIDS).Declaration of Interests: None of the authors have any relevant interest to declare. Ethics Approval Statement: Ethical approval was obtained to take deferred consent from patients from whom an RNA specimen had been collected (or from next of kin or nominated consultee) (REC references 14/SC/0008 and 19/SC/0116).

3.
Thorax ; 2021 Nov 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1528562

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To prospectively validate two risk scores to predict mortality (4C Mortality) and in-hospital deterioration (4C Deterioration) among adults hospitalised with COVID-19. METHODS: Prospective observational cohort study of adults (age ≥18 years) with confirmed or highly suspected COVID-19 recruited into the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study in 306 hospitals across England, Scotland and Wales. Patients were recruited between 27 August 2020 and 17 February 2021, with at least 4 weeks follow-up before final data extraction. The main outcome measures were discrimination and calibration of models for in-hospital deterioration (defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) and mortality, incorporating predefined subgroups. RESULTS: 76 588 participants were included, of whom 27 352 (37.4%) deteriorated and 12 581 (17.4%) died. Both the 4C Mortality (0.78 (0.77 to 0.78)) and 4C Deterioration scores (pooled C-statistic 0.76 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.77)) demonstrated consistent discrimination across all nine National Health Service regions, with similar performance metrics to the original validation cohorts. Calibration remained stable (4C Mortality: pooled slope 1.09, pooled calibration-in-the-large 0.12; 4C Deterioration: 1.00, -0.04), with no need for temporal recalibration during the second UK pandemic wave of hospital admissions. CONCLUSION: Both 4C risk stratification models demonstrate consistent performance to predict clinical deterioration and mortality in a large prospective second wave validation cohort of UK patients. Despite recent advances in the treatment and management of adults hospitalised with COVID-19, both scores can continue to inform clinical decision making. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN66726260.

4.
Thorax ; 77(5): 429-430, 2022 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1518157
5.
Lancet Microbe ; 2(10): e508-e517, 2021 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1475189

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: We hypothesised that host-response biomarkers of viral infections might contribute to early identification of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2, which is critical to breaking the chains of transmission. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of existing candidate whole-blood transcriptomic signatures for viral infection to predict positivity of nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing. METHODS: We did a nested case-control diagnostic accuracy study among a prospective cohort of health-care workers (aged ≥18 years) at St Bartholomew's Hospital (London, UK) undergoing weekly blood and nasopharyngeal swab sampling for whole-blood RNA sequencing and SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing, when fit to attend work. We identified candidate blood transcriptomic signatures for viral infection through a systematic literature search. We searched MEDLINE for articles published between database inception and Oct 12, 2020, using comprehensive MeSH and keyword terms for "viral infection", "transcriptome", "biomarker", and "blood". We reconstructed signature scores in blood RNA sequencing data and evaluated their diagnostic accuracy for contemporaneous SARS-CoV-2 infection, compared with the gold standard of SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing, by quantifying the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), sensitivities, and specificities at a standardised Z score of at least 2 based on the distribution of signature scores in test-negative controls. We used pairwise DeLong tests compared with the most discriminating signature to identify the subset of best performing biomarkers. We evaluated associations between signature expression, viral load (using PCR cycle thresholds), and symptom status visually and using Spearman rank correlation. The primary outcome was the AUROC for discriminating between samples from participants who tested negative throughout the study (test-negative controls) and samples from participants with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (test-positive participants) during their first week of PCR positivity. FINDINGS: We identified 20 candidate blood transcriptomic signatures of viral infection from 18 studies and evaluated their accuracy among 169 blood RNA samples from 96 participants over 24 weeks. Participants were recruited between March 23 and March 31, 2020. 114 samples were from 41 participants with SARS-CoV-2 infection, and 55 samples were from 55 test-negative controls. The median age of participants was 36 years (IQR 27-47) and 69 (72%) of 96 were women. Signatures had little overlap of component genes, but were mostly correlated as components of type I interferon responses. A single blood transcript for IFI27 provided the highest accuracy for discriminating between test-negative controls and test-positive individuals at the time of their first positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR result, with AUROC of 0·95 (95% CI 0·91-0·99), sensitivity 0·84 (0·70-0·93), and specificity 0·95 (0·85-0·98) at a predefined threshold (Z score >2). The transcript performed equally well in individuals with and without symptoms. Three other candidate signatures (including two to 48 transcripts) had statistically equivalent discrimination to IFI27 (AUROCs 0·91-0·95). INTERPRETATION: Our findings support further urgent evaluation and development of blood IFI27 transcripts as a biomarker for early phase SARS-CoV-2 infection for screening individuals at high risk of infection, such as contacts of index cases, to facilitate early case isolation and early use of antiviral treatments as they emerge. FUNDING: Barts Charity, Wellcome Trust, and National Institute of Health Research.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Adolescent , Adult , Biomarkers , COVID-19/diagnosis , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Prospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Sensitivity and Specificity
6.
Materials (Basel) ; 14(11)2021 May 25.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1389430

ABSTRACT

The authors wish to make the following corrections to this paper [1]:Throughout the paper's text and in the table, "HCoV-299E" is referred to a few times [...].

7.
Lancet Microbe ; 2(11): e594-e603, 2021 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1356520

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Emergency admissions for infection often lack initial diagnostic certainty. COVID-19 has highlighted a need for novel diagnostic approaches to indicate likelihood of viral infection in a pandemic setting. We aimed to derive and validate a blood transcriptional signature to detect viral infections, including COVID-19, among adults with suspected infection who presented to the emergency department. METHODS: Individuals (aged ≥18 years) presenting with suspected infection to an emergency department at a major teaching hospital in the UK were prospectively recruited as part of the Bioresource in Adult Infectious Diseases (BioAID) discovery cohort. Whole-blood RNA sequencing was done on samples from participants with subsequently confirmed viral, bacterial, or no infection diagnoses. Differentially expressed host genes that met additional filtering criteria were subjected to feature selection to derive the most parsimonious discriminating signature. We validated the signature via RT-qPCR in a prospective validation cohort of participants who presented to an emergency department with undifferentiated fever, and a second case-control validation cohort of emergency department participants with PCR-positive COVID-19 or bacterial infection. We assessed signature performance by calculating the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs), sensitivities, and specificities. FINDINGS: A three-gene transcript signature, comprising HERC6, IGF1R, and NAGK, was derived from the discovery cohort of 56 participants with bacterial infections and 27 with viral infections. In the validation cohort of 200 participants, the signature differentiated bacterial from viral infections with an AUROC of 0·976 (95% CI 0·919-1·000), sensitivity of 97·3% (85·8-99·9), and specificity of 100% (63·1-100). The AUROC for C-reactive protein (CRP) was 0·833 (0·694-0·944) and for leukocyte count was 0·938 (0·840-0·986). The signature achieved higher net benefit in decision curve analysis than either CRP or leukocyte count for discriminating viral infections from all other infections. In the second validation analysis, which included SARS-CoV-2-positive participants, the signature discriminated 35 bacterial infections from 34 SARS-CoV-2-positive COVID-19 infections with AUROC of 0·953 (0·893-0·992), sensitivity 88·6%, and specificity of 94·1%. INTERPRETATION: This novel three-gene signature discriminates viral infections, including COVID-19, from other emergency infection presentations in adults, outperforming both leukocyte count and CRP, thus potentially providing substantial clinical utility in managing acute presentations with infection. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, and EU-FP7.


Subject(s)
Bacterial Infections , COVID-19 , Communicable Diseases , Virus Diseases , Adolescent , Adult , Bacteria , Bacterial Infections/diagnosis , C-Reactive Protein/analysis , COVID-19/diagnosis , Case-Control Studies , Cohort Studies , Humans , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Virus Diseases/diagnosis
8.
Lancet Microbe ; 2(10): e508-e517, 2021 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1305340

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: We hypothesised that host-response biomarkers of viral infections might contribute to early identification of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2, which is critical to breaking the chains of transmission. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of existing candidate whole-blood transcriptomic signatures for viral infection to predict positivity of nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing. METHODS: We did a nested case-control diagnostic accuracy study among a prospective cohort of health-care workers (aged ≥18 years) at St Bartholomew's Hospital (London, UK) undergoing weekly blood and nasopharyngeal swab sampling for whole-blood RNA sequencing and SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing, when fit to attend work. We identified candidate blood transcriptomic signatures for viral infection through a systematic literature search. We searched MEDLINE for articles published between database inception and Oct 12, 2020, using comprehensive MeSH and keyword terms for "viral infection", "transcriptome", "biomarker", and "blood". We reconstructed signature scores in blood RNA sequencing data and evaluated their diagnostic accuracy for contemporaneous SARS-CoV-2 infection, compared with the gold standard of SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing, by quantifying the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), sensitivities, and specificities at a standardised Z score of at least 2 based on the distribution of signature scores in test-negative controls. We used pairwise DeLong tests compared with the most discriminating signature to identify the subset of best performing biomarkers. We evaluated associations between signature expression, viral load (using PCR cycle thresholds), and symptom status visually and using Spearman rank correlation. The primary outcome was the AUROC for discriminating between samples from participants who tested negative throughout the study (test-negative controls) and samples from participants with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (test-positive participants) during their first week of PCR positivity. FINDINGS: We identified 20 candidate blood transcriptomic signatures of viral infection from 18 studies and evaluated their accuracy among 169 blood RNA samples from 96 participants over 24 weeks. Participants were recruited between March 23 and March 31, 2020. 114 samples were from 41 participants with SARS-CoV-2 infection, and 55 samples were from 55 test-negative controls. The median age of participants was 36 years (IQR 27-47) and 69 (72%) of 96 were women. Signatures had little overlap of component genes, but were mostly correlated as components of type I interferon responses. A single blood transcript for IFI27 provided the highest accuracy for discriminating between test-negative controls and test-positive individuals at the time of their first positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR result, with AUROC of 0·95 (95% CI 0·91-0·99), sensitivity 0·84 (0·70-0·93), and specificity 0·95 (0·85-0·98) at a predefined threshold (Z score >2). The transcript performed equally well in individuals with and without symptoms. Three other candidate signatures (including two to 48 transcripts) had statistically equivalent discrimination to IFI27 (AUROCs 0·91-0·95). INTERPRETATION: Our findings support further urgent evaluation and development of blood IFI27 transcripts as a biomarker for early phase SARS-CoV-2 infection for screening individuals at high risk of infection, such as contacts of index cases, to facilitate early case isolation and early use of antiviral treatments as they emerge. FUNDING: Barts Charity, Wellcome Trust, and National Institute of Health Research.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Adolescent , Adult , Biomarkers , COVID-19/diagnosis , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Prospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Sensitivity and Specificity
9.
Lancet Respir Med ; 9(4): 349-359, 2021 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1180127

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models to predict the risk of clinical deterioration in acute COVID-19 cases are urgently required to inform clinical management decisions. METHODS: We developed and validated a multivariable logistic regression model for in-hospital clinical deterioration (defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) among consecutively hospitalised adults with highly suspected or confirmed COVID-19 who were prospectively recruited to the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium (ISARIC4C) study across 260 hospitals in England, Scotland, and Wales. Candidate predictors that were specified a priori were considered for inclusion in the model on the basis of previous prognostic scores and emerging literature describing routinely measured biomarkers associated with COVID-19 prognosis. We used internal-external cross-validation to evaluate discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility across eight National Health Service (NHS) regions in the development cohort. We further validated the final model in held-out data from an additional NHS region (London). FINDINGS: 74 944 participants (recruited between Feb 6 and Aug 26, 2020) were included, of whom 31 924 (43·2%) of 73 948 with available outcomes met the composite clinical deterioration outcome. In internal-external cross-validation in the development cohort of 66 705 participants, the selected model (comprising 11 predictors routinely measured at the point of hospital admission) showed consistent discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility across all eight NHS regions. In held-out data from London (n=8239), the model showed a similarly consistent performance (C-statistic 0·77 [95% CI 0·76 to 0·78]; calibration-in-the-large 0·00 [-0·05 to 0·05]); calibration slope 0·96 [0·91 to 1·01]), and greater net benefit than any other reproducible prognostic model. INTERPRETATION: The 4C Deterioration model has strong potential for clinical utility and generalisability to predict clinical deterioration and inform decision making among adults hospitalised with COVID-19. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Department for International Development, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, EU Platform for European Preparedness Against (Re-)emerging Epidemics, NIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections at University of Liverpool, NIHR HPRU in Respiratory Infections at Imperial College London.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/diagnosis , Clinical Decision Rules , Clinical Decision-Making/methods , Clinical Deterioration , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/mortality , COVID-19/therapy , Critical Care/statistics & numerical data , Female , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Intensive Care Units/statistics & numerical data , Logistic Models , Male , Middle Aged , Patient Admission/statistics & numerical data , Prognosis , Prospective Studies , Reproducibility of Results , Respiration, Artificial/statistics & numerical data , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Severity of Illness Index , United Kingdom/epidemiology
10.
Stroke ; 52(5): 1682-1690, 2021 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1117688

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The degree to which the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected systems of care, in particular, those for time-sensitive conditions such as stroke, remains poorly quantified. We sought to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 in the overall screening for acute stroke utilizing a commercial clinical artificial intelligence platform. METHODS: Data were derived from the Viz Platform, an artificial intelligence application designed to optimize the workflow of patients with acute stroke. Neuroimaging data on suspected patients with stroke across 97 hospitals in 20 US states were collected in real time and retrospectively analyzed with the number of patients undergoing imaging screening serving as a surrogate for the amount of stroke care. The main outcome measures were the number of computed tomography (CT) angiography, CT perfusion, large vessel occlusions (defined according to the automated software detection), and severe strokes on CT perfusion (defined as those with hypoperfusion volumes >70 mL) normalized as number of patients per day per hospital. Data from the prepandemic (November 4, 2019 to February 29, 2020) and pandemic (March 1 to May 10, 2020) periods were compared at national and state levels. Correlations were made between the inter-period changes in imaging screening, stroke hospitalizations, and thrombectomy procedures using state-specific sampling. RESULTS: A total of 23 223 patients were included. The incidence of large vessel occlusion on CT angiography and severe strokes on CT perfusion were 11.2% (n=2602) and 14.7% (n=1229/8328), respectively. There were significant declines in the overall number of CT angiographies (-22.8%; 1.39-1.07 patients/day per hospital, P<0.001) and CT perfusion (-26.1%; 0.50-0.37 patients/day per hospital, P<0.001) as well as in the incidence of large vessel occlusion (-17.1%; 0.15-0.13 patients/day per hospital, P<0.001) and severe strokes on CT perfusion (-16.7%; 0.12-0.10 patients/day per hospital, P<0.005). The sampled cohort showed similar declines in the rates of large vessel occlusions versus thrombectomy (18.8% versus 19.5%, P=0.9) and comprehensive stroke center hospitalizations (18.8% versus 11.0%, P=0.4). CONCLUSIONS: A significant decline in stroke imaging screening has occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. This analysis underscores the broader application of artificial intelligence neuroimaging platforms for the real-time monitoring of stroke systems of care.


Subject(s)
Artificial Intelligence , COVID-19/epidemiology , Diagnosis, Computer-Assisted/methods , Stroke/epidemiology , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/complications , Computed Tomography Angiography , Female , Hospitalization , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Perfusion , Retrospective Studies , Stroke/complications , Tomography, X-Ray Computed , Workflow
11.
EBioMedicine ; 65: 103259, 2021 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1116568

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 serology is used to identify prior infection at individual and at population level. Extended longitudinal studies with multi-timepoint sampling to evaluate dynamic changes in antibody levels are required to identify the time horizon in which these applications of serology are valid, and to explore the longevity of protective humoral immunity. METHODS: Healthcare workers were recruited to a prospective cohort study from the first SARS-CoV-2 epidemic peak in London, undergoing weekly symptom screen, viral PCR and blood sampling over 16-21 weeks. Serological analysis (n =12,990) was performed using semi-quantitative Euroimmun IgG to viral spike S1 domain and Roche total antibody to viral nucleocapsid protein (NP) assays. Comparisons were made to pseudovirus neutralizing antibody measurements. FINDINGS: A total of 157/729 (21.5%) participants developed positive SARS-CoV-2 serology by one or other assay, of whom 31.0% were asymptomatic and there were no deaths. Peak Euroimmun anti-S1 and Roche anti-NP measurements correlated (r = 0.57, p<0.0001) but only anti-S1 measurements correlated with near-contemporary pseudovirus neutralising antibody titres (measured at 16-18 weeks, r = 0.57, p<0.0001). By 21 weeks' follow-up, 31/143 (21.7%) anti-S1 and 6/150 (4.0%) anti-NP measurements reverted to negative. Mathematical modelling revealed faster clearance of anti-S1 compared to anti-NP (median half-life of 2.5 weeks versus 4.0 weeks), earlier transition to lower levels of antibody production (median of 8 versus 13 weeks), and greater reductions in relative antibody production rate after the transition (median of 35% versus 50%). INTERPRETATION: Mild SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with heterogeneous serological responses in Euroimmun anti-S1 and Roche anti-NP assays. Anti-S1 responses showed faster rates of clearance, more rapid transition from high to low level production rate and greater reduction in production rate after this transition. In mild infection, anti-S1 serology alone may underestimate incident infections. The mechanisms that underpin faster clearance and lower rates of sustained anti-S1 production may impact on the longevity of humoral immunity. FUNDING: Charitable donations via Barts Charity, Wellcome Trust, NIHR.


Subject(s)
Antibodies, Neutralizing/blood , Antibodies, Viral/blood , COVID-19/blood , Coronavirus Nucleocapsid Proteins/immunology , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/immunology , Antibodies, Neutralizing/immunology , Antibodies, Viral/immunology , COVID-19/diagnosis , Health Personnel/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Immunoglobulin A/blood , Immunoglobulin G/blood , Phosphoproteins/immunology , Protein Domains/immunology
12.
BMC Med ; 19(1): 23, 2021 01 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1067228

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) is currently recommended in the UK for the risk stratification of COVID-19 patients, but little is known about its ability to detect severe cases. We aimed to evaluate NEWS2 for the prediction of severe COVID-19 outcome and identify and validate a set of blood and physiological parameters routinely collected at hospital admission to improve upon the use of NEWS2 alone for medium-term risk stratification. METHODS: Training cohorts comprised 1276 patients admitted to King's College Hospital National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust with COVID-19 disease from 1 March to 30 April 2020. External validation cohorts included 6237 patients from five UK NHS Trusts (Guy's and St Thomas' Hospitals, University Hospitals Southampton, University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust, University College London Hospitals, University Hospitals Birmingham), one hospital in Norway (Oslo University Hospital), and two hospitals in Wuhan, China (Wuhan Sixth Hospital and Taikang Tongji Hospital). The outcome was severe COVID-19 disease (transfer to intensive care unit (ICU) or death) at 14 days after hospital admission. Age, physiological measures, blood biomarkers, sex, ethnicity, and comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney diseases) measured at hospital admission were considered in the models. RESULTS: A baseline model of 'NEWS2 + age' had poor-to-moderate discrimination for severe COVID-19 infection at 14 days (area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in training cohort = 0.700, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.680, 0.722; Brier score = 0.192, 95% CI 0.186, 0.197). A supplemented model adding eight routinely collected blood and physiological parameters (supplemental oxygen flow rate, urea, age, oxygen saturation, C-reactive protein, estimated glomerular filtration rate, neutrophil count, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio) improved discrimination (AUC = 0.735; 95% CI 0.715, 0.757), and these improvements were replicated across seven UK and non-UK sites. However, there was evidence of miscalibration with the model tending to underestimate risks in most sites. CONCLUSIONS: NEWS2 score had poor-to-moderate discrimination for medium-term COVID-19 outcome which raises questions about its use as a screening tool at hospital admission. Risk stratification was improved by including readily available blood and physiological parameters measured at hospital admission, but there was evidence of miscalibration in external sites. This highlights the need for a better understanding of the use of early warning scores for COVID.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/diagnosis , Early Warning Score , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/virology , Cohort Studies , Electronic Health Records , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Prognosis , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , State Medicine , United Kingdom/epidemiology
13.
Thorax ; 76(1): 83-85, 2021 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1066941

ABSTRACT

Although nasal continuous positive airway pressure or non-invasive ventilation is used to manage some patients with acute lung injury due to COVID-19, such patients also demonstrate increased minute ventilation which makes it hard, if the device is used in line with the manufacturer's instructions, to achieve adequate oxygen delivery. In addition, if a hospital contains many such patients, then it is possible that the oxygen requirements will exceed infrastructure capacity. Here we describe a simple modification of two exemplar ventilators normally used for domiciliary ventilation, which substantially increased the fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2) delivered.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/therapy , Off-Label Use , Pandemics , Respiration, Artificial/instrumentation , SARS-CoV-2 , Ventilators, Mechanical , COVID-19/epidemiology , Equipment Design , Humans
15.
Materials (Basel) ; 13(22)2020 Nov 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-934505

ABSTRACT

The unwavering spread of COVID-19 has taken the world by storm. Preventive measures like social distancing and mask usage have been taken all around the globe but still, as of September 2020, the number of cases continues to rise in many countries. Evidently, these measures are insufficient. Although decreases in population density and surges in the public's usage of personal protective equipment can mitigate direct transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), indirect transmission of the virus is still probable. By summarizing the current state of knowledge on the stability of coronaviruses on dry materials, this review uncovers the high potential for SARS-CoV-2 transmission through contaminated surfaces (i.e., fomites) and prompts future research. Fully contextualized data on coronavirus persistence are presented. The methods and limitations to testing the stability of coronaviruses are explored, and the SARS-CoV-2 representativeness of different coronaviruses is analyzed. The factors which dictate the persistence of coronaviruses on surfaces (media, environmental conditions, and material-type) are investigated, and the review is concluded by encouraging material innovation to combat the current pandemic. To summarize, SARS-CoV-2 remains viable on the timescale of days on hard surfaces under ambient indoor conditions. Similarly, the virus is stable on human skin, signifying the necessity of hand hygiene amidst the current pandemic. There is an inverse relationship between SARS-CoV-2 surface persistence and temperature/humidity, and the virus is well suited to air-conditioned environments (room temperature, ~ 40% relative humidity). Sunlight may rapidly inactivate the virus, suggesting that indirect transmission predominantly occurs indoors. The development of antiviral materials and surface coatings would be an extremely effective method to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. To obtain applicable data on the persistence of coronaviruses and the efficiency of virucidal materials, future researchers should understand the common experimental limitations outlined in this review and plan their studies accordingly.

16.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 17(18)2020 09 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-891602

ABSTRACT

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak started just a couple of months ago and it grew rapidly causing several deaths and morbidities. The mechanism behind the transmission of the virus is still not completely understood despite a multitude of new specific manuscripts being published daily. This article highlights the oral cavity as a possible viral transmission route into the body via the Angiotensin converting enzyme 2 receptor. It also provides guidelines for routine protective measures in the dental office while delivering oral health care.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Dental Care , Mouth/virology , Peptidyl-Dipeptidase A , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2 , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Delivery of Health Care , Humans , Oral Health , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Practice Guidelines as Topic , SARS-CoV-2
17.
Eur Respir J ; 56(6)2020 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-796596

ABSTRACT

The number of proposed prognostic models for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is growing rapidly, but it is unknown whether any are suitable for widespread clinical implementation.We independently externally validated the performance of candidate prognostic models, identified through a living systematic review, among consecutive adults admitted to hospital with a final diagnosis of COVID-19. We reconstructed candidate models as per original descriptions and evaluated performance for their original intended outcomes using predictors measured at the time of admission. We assessed discrimination, calibration and net benefit, compared to the default strategies of treating all and no patients, and against the most discriminating predictors in univariable analyses.We tested 22 candidate prognostic models among 411 participants with COVID-19, of whom 180 (43.8%) and 115 (28.0%) met the endpoints of clinical deterioration and mortality, respectively. Highest areas under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves were achieved by the NEWS2 score for prediction of deterioration over 24 h (0.78, 95% CI 0.73-0.83), and a novel model for prediction of deterioration <14 days from admission (0.78, 95% CI 0.74-0.82). The most discriminating univariable predictors were admission oxygen saturation on room air for in-hospital deterioration (AUROC 0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.81), and age for in-hospital mortality (AUROC 0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.81). No prognostic model demonstrated consistently higher net benefit than these univariable predictors, across a range of threshold probabilities.Admission oxygen saturation on room air and patient age are strong predictors of deterioration and mortality among hospitalised adults with COVID-19, respectively. None of the prognostic models evaluated here offered incremental value for patient stratification to these univariable predictors.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/mortality , Clinical Deterioration , Hospital Mortality , Models, Theoretical , Aged , Cohort Studies , Female , Hospitalization , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Prognosis
18.
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ; 17(18):6704, 2020.
Article | MDPI | ID: covidwho-762570

ABSTRACT

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak started just a couple of months ago and it grew rapidly causing several deaths and morbidities. The mechanism behind the transmission of the virus is still not completely understood despite a multitude of new specific manuscripts being published daily. This article highlights the oral cavity as a possible viral transmission route into the body via the Angiotensin converting enzyme 2 receptor. It also provides guidelines for routine protective measures in the dental office while delivering oral health care.

19.
BMJ ; 370: m3339, 2020 09 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-751530

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a pragmatic risk score to predict mortality in patients admitted to hospital with coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19). DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study. SETTING: International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) World Health Organization (WHO) Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study (performed by the ISARIC Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium-ISARIC-4C) in 260 hospitals across England, Scotland, and Wales. Model training was performed on a cohort of patients recruited between 6 February and 20 May 2020, with validation conducted on a second cohort of patients recruited after model development between 21 May and 29 June 2020. PARTICIPANTS: Adults (age ≥18 years) admitted to hospital with covid-19 at least four weeks before final data extraction. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: In-hospital mortality. RESULTS: 35 463 patients were included in the derivation dataset (mortality rate 32.2%) and 22 361 in the validation dataset (mortality rate 30.1%). The final 4C Mortality Score included eight variables readily available at initial hospital assessment: age, sex, number of comorbidities, respiratory rate, peripheral oxygen saturation, level of consciousness, urea level, and C reactive protein (score range 0-21 points). The 4C Score showed high discrimination for mortality (derivation cohort: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.79; validation cohort: 0.77, 0.76 to 0.77) with excellent calibration (validation: calibration-in-the-large=0, slope=1.0). Patients with a score of at least 15 (n=4158, 19%) had a 62% mortality (positive predictive value 62%) compared with 1% mortality for those with a score of 3 or less (n=1650, 7%; negative predictive value 99%). Discriminatory performance was higher than 15 pre-existing risk stratification scores (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve range 0.61-0.76), with scores developed in other covid-19 cohorts often performing poorly (range 0.63-0.73). CONCLUSIONS: An easy-to-use risk stratification score has been developed and validated based on commonly available parameters at hospital presentation. The 4C Mortality Score outperformed existing scores, showed utility to directly inform clinical decision making, and can be used to stratify patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 into different management groups. The score should be further validated to determine its applicability in other populations. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN66726260.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Hospitalization , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19 , Clinical Protocols , Cohort Studies , Female , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Predictive Value of Tests , ROC Curve , Risk Assessment , SARS-CoV-2 , Survival Rate , United Kingdom
20.
SELECTION OF CITATIONS
SEARCH DETAIL