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1.
PubMed; 2020.
Preprint in English | PubMed | ID: ppcovidwho-333553

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The absence of systematic surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 has curtailed accurate appraisal of transmission intensity. Our objective was to perform case detection of an entire rural community to quantify SARS-CoV-2 transmission using PCR and antibody testing. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of the prevalence and cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the rural town of Bolinas, California (population 1,620), four weeks following shelter-in-place orders. Residents and county essential workers were tested between April 20th-24th, 2020. Prevalence by PCR and seroprevalence combining data from two forms of antibody testing were performed in parallel (Abbott ARCHITECT IgG to nucleocapsid protein and in-house IgG ELISA to the receptor binding domain). RESULTS: Of 1,891 participants, 1,312 were confirmed Bolinas residents (>80% community ascertainment). Zero participants were PCR positive. Assuming 80% sensitivity, it would have been unlikely to observe these results (p<0.05) if there were >3 active infections in the community. Based on antibody results, estimated prevalence of prior infection was 0.16% (95% CrI: 0.02%, 0.46%). Seroprevalence estimates using only one of the two tests would have been higher, with greater uncertainty. The positive predictive value (PPV) of a positive result on both tests was 99.11% (95% CrI: 95.75%, 99.94%), compared to PPV 44.19%-63.32% (95% CrI range 3.25%-98.64%) if only one test was utilized. CONCLUSIONS: Four weeks following shelter-in-place, active and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection in a rural Northern California community was extremely rare. In this low prevalence setting, use of two antibody tests increased the PPV and precision of seroprevalence estimates.

2.
PubMed; 2020.
Preprint in English | PubMed | ID: ppcovidwho-296875

ABSTRACT

We report very low SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in two San Francisco Bay Area populations. Seropositivity was 0.26% in 387 hospitalized patients admitted for non-respiratory indications and 0.1% in 1,000 blood donors. We additionally describe the longitudinal dynamics of immunoglobulin-G, immunoglobulin-M, and in vitro neutralizing antibody titers in COVID-19 patients. Neutralizing antibodies rise in tandem with immunoglobulin levels following symptom onset, exhibiting median time to seroconversion within one day of each other, and there is >93% positive percent agreement between detection of immunoglobulin-G and neutralizing titers.

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