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1.
SSM - Population Health ; : 101105, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1805211

ABSTRACT

Understanding COVID-19 risk perception may help inform public health messaging aimed at encouraging preventive measures and improving countermeasures against the pandemic. We conducted an online survey of 29,708 Japanese adults in February 2021 and estimated the associations between COVID-19 risk perception and a broad array of individual factors. Two logistic regressions were constructed to estimate factors associated with the risk perception of COVID-19 (defined as responding that one might become infected within the next 6 months), and of severe illness among those who responded that they might become infected (defined as responding that one would become severely ill). After adjusting for covariates, those with a higher perceived risk of the COVID-19 vaccine had higher odds of risk perception for both infection and severe illness. Interestingly, those with higher odds of risk perception of being infected were more likely to report obtaining their information from healthcare workers whereas those with lower odds were more likely to report obtaining their information from the Internet or the government;those with higher odds of risk perception of being severely ill were more likely to report obtaining their information from the Internet. The higher the trust level in the government as a COVID-19 information source, the lower the odds of both risk perception of being infected and becoming severely ill. The higher the trust levels in social networking services as a COVID-19 information source, the higher the odds of risk perception of becoming severely ill. Public health messaging should address the factors identified in our study.

3.
Jpn J Infect Dis ; 75(2): 209-211, 2022 Mar 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1761196

ABSTRACT

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for COVID-19 can affect the current and future dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus infections (RSV). In Tokyo, RSV activity declined by 97.9% (95% CI: 94.8%-99.2%) during NPIs. A long period of NPIs could increase susceptible populations, thus enhancing the potential for large RSV outbreaks after the end of NPIs.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections , Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human , COVID-19/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks , Humans , Infant , Japan/epidemiology , Pandemics/prevention & control , Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , Tokyo/epidemiology
4.
EuropePMC; 2020.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-305504

ABSTRACT

Background: We reviewed current evidence on the impact of COVID-19 on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria across Africa. Methods: We searched medical databases up to 15 September 2020 for epidemiological studies that investigated the impact of COVID-19 on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in terms of morbidity, mortality, or healthcare accessibility, covering African countries. We consulted global health and government sources for population surveys providing relevant primary data. We employed meta-study to assess evidence. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42020209265. Results: Of the 128 records screened, 14 epidemiological studies were included in the analysis. We identified 5 population surveys. The largest effect of COVID-19 related disruption of HIV, TB, and malaria services is projected to result from interruption of ART, decline in TB case detection, and interruption of insecticide treated bed nets distribution campaigns, respectively. However, most modelling studies substantially underestimated the potential implications of COVID-19 on HIV, TB, and malaria in Africa and focused on the disruption of healthcare resulting from reduction in the capacity of healthcare provider. Reduced capacity of patients to use health services and adhere to treatment may also contribute to poor outcomes even when health systems capabilities are restored or unaffected. Moreover, these models do not account for any potential interaction of HIV, TB, and malaria with COVID-19, although empirical evidence shows that coinfection between HIV and TB with COVID-19 is significantly associated with increased mortality risk in Africa. Conclusions: Current evidence is largely speculative. Innovative COVID-19 resilient solutions calibrated to local vulnerabilities are vital to ensure continuity of care and prevent the emergence of further potentially larger crises.

5.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 24477, 2021 12 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1599359

ABSTRACT

Assessing the impact of temperature on COVID-19 epidemiology is critical for implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions. However, few studies have accounted for the nature of contagious diseases, i.e., their dependent happenings. We aimed to quantify the impact of temperature on the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Tokyo, Japan, employing two epidemiological measurements of transmissibility and severity: the effective reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) and case fatality risk (CFR). We estimated the [Formula: see text] and time-delay adjusted CFR and to subsequently assess the nonlinear and delayed effect of temperature on [Formula: see text] and time-delay adjusted CFR. For [Formula: see text] at low temperatures, the cumulative relative risk (RR) at the first temperature percentile (3.3 °C) was 1.3 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1-1.7). As for the virulence to humans, moderate cold temperatures were associated with higher CFR, and CFR also increased as the temperature rose. The cumulative RR at the 10th and 99th percentiles of temperature (5.8 °C and 30.8 °C) for CFR were 3.5 (95% CI: 1.3-10.0) and 6.4 (95% CI: 4.1-10.1). Our results suggest the importance to take precautions to avoid infection in both cold and warm seasons to avoid severe cases of COVID-19. The results and our proposed approach will also help in assessing the possible seasonal course of COVID-19 in the future.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/transmission , Temperature , Basic Reproduction Number , Cold Temperature , Humans , Mortality , Pandemics/prevention & control , Risk , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , Seasons , Severity of Illness Index , Tokyo/epidemiology , Virulence
6.
Environ Health ; 20(1): 122, 2021 12 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1551209

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, several illnesses were reduced. In Japan, heat-related illnesses were reduced by 22% compared to pre-pandemic period. However, it is uncertain as to what has led to this reduction. Here, we model the association of maximum temperature and heat-related illnesses in the 47 Japanese prefectures. We specifically examined how the exposure and lag associations varied before and during the pandemic. METHODS: We obtained the summer-specific, daily heat-related illness ambulance transport (HIAT), exposure variable (maximum temperature) and covariate data from relevant data sources. We utilized a stratified (pre-pandemic and pandemic), two-stage approach. In each stratified group, we estimated the 1) prefecture-level association using a quasi-Poisson regression coupled with a distributed lag non-linear model, which was 2) pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. The difference between pooled pre-pandemic and pandemic associations was examined across the exposure and the lag dimensions. RESULTS: A total of 321,655 HIAT cases was recorded in Japan from 2016 to 2020. We found an overall reduction of heat-related risks for HIAT during the pandemic, with a wide range of reduction (10.85 to 57.47%) in the HIAT risk, across exposure levels ranging from 21.69 °C to 36.31 °C. On the contrary, we found an increment in the delayed heat-related risks during the pandemic at Lag 2 (16.33%; 95% CI: 1.00, 33.98%). CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence of the impact of COVID-19, particularly on the possible roles of physical interventions and behavioral changes, in modifying the temperature-health association. These findings would have implications on subsequent policies or heat-related warning strategies in light of ongoing or future pandemics.


Subject(s)
Ambulances , COVID-19 , Heat Stress Disorders , Pandemics , Ambulances/statistics & numerical data , COVID-19/epidemiology , Heat Stress Disorders/epidemiology , Humans , Japan/epidemiology
7.
Global Sustainability ; 4, 2021.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1517580

ABSTRACT

Non-technical summaryWe summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements.Technical summaryA synthesis is made of 10 topics within climate research, where there have been significant advances since January 2020. The insights are based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) the options to still keep global warming below 1.5 °C;(2) the impact of non-CO2 factors in global warming;(3) a new dimension of fire extremes forced by climate change;(4) the increasing pressure on interconnected climate tipping elements;(5) the dimensions of climate justice;(6) political challenges impeding the effectiveness of carbon pricing;(7) demand-side solutions as vehicles of climate mitigation;(8) the potentials and caveats of nature-based solutions;(9) how building resilience of marine ecosystems is possible;and (10) that the costs of climate change mitigation policies can be more than justified by the benefits to the health of humans and nature.Social media summaryHow do we limit global warming to 1.5 °C and why is it crucial? See highlights of latest climate science.

8.
Int J Epidemiol ; 51(1): 75-84, 2022 02 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1493814

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a major global health burden. This study aims to estimate the all-cause excess mortality occurring in the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020, by sex and age group. METHODS: Daily time series of mortality for the period January 2015-December 2020 in all 47 prefectures of Japan were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan. A two-stage interrupted time-series design was used to calculate excess mortality. In the first stage, we estimated excess mortality by prefecture using quasi-Poisson regression models in combination with distributed lag non-linear models, adjusting for seasonal and long-term variations, weather conditions and influenza activity. In the second stage, we used a random-effects multivariate meta-analysis to synthesize prefecture-specific estimates at the nationwide level. RESULTS: In 2020, we estimated an all-cause excess mortality of -20 982 deaths [95% empirical confidence intervals (eCI): -38 367 to -5472] in Japan, which corresponded to a percentage excess of -1.7% (95% eCI: -3.1 to -0.5) relative to the expected value. Reduced deaths were observed for both sexes and in all age groups except those aged <60 and 70-79 years. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan in 2020 was decreased compared with a historical baseline. Further evaluation of cause-specific excess mortality is warranted.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Disease Outbreaks , Female , Humans , Interrupted Time Series Analysis , Japan/epidemiology , Male , Mortality , SARS-CoV-2
9.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 5968, 2021 10 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1467102

ABSTRACT

There is conflicting evidence on the influence of weather on COVID-19 transmission. Our aim is to estimate weather-dependent signatures in the early phase of the pandemic, while controlling for socio-economic factors and non-pharmaceutical interventions. We identify a modest non-linear association between mean temperature and the effective reproduction number (Re) in 409 cities in 26 countries, with a decrease of 0.087 (95% CI: 0.025; 0.148) for a 10 °C increase. Early interventions have a greater effect on Re with a decrease of 0.285 (95% CI 0.223; 0.347) for a 5th - 95th percentile increase in the government response index. The variation in the effective reproduction number explained by government interventions is 6 times greater than for mean temperature. We find little evidence of meteorological conditions having influenced the early stages of local epidemics and conclude that population behaviour and government interventions are more important drivers of transmission.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/transmission , Meteorological Concepts , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , Basic Reproduction Number , COVID-19/epidemiology , Cities , Cross-Sectional Studies , Humans , Meta-Analysis as Topic , Pandemics , Regression Analysis , Seasons , Temperature , Weather
10.
Jpn J Infect Dis ; 75(2): 209-211, 2022 Mar 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1389796

ABSTRACT

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for COVID-19 can affect the current and future dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus infections (RSV). In Tokyo, RSV activity declined by 97.9% (95% CI: 94.8%-99.2%) during NPIs. A long period of NPIs could increase susceptible populations, thus enhancing the potential for large RSV outbreaks after the end of NPIs.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections , Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human , COVID-19/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks , Humans , Infant , Japan/epidemiology , Pandemics/prevention & control , Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , Tokyo/epidemiology
11.
Int J Equity Health ; 20(1): 196, 2021 08 30.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1379792

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Equity is one of three dimensions of universal health coverage (UHC). However, Iraq has had capital-focused health services and successive conflicts and political turmoil have hampered health services around the country. Iraq has embarked on a new reconstruction process since 2018 and it could be time to aim for equitable healthcare access to realise UHC. We aimed to examine inequality and determinants associated with Iraq's progress towards UHC targets. METHODS: We assessed the progress toward UHC in the context of equity using six nationally representative population-based household surveys in Iraq in 2000-2018. We included 14 health service indicators and two financial risk protection indicators in our UHC progress assessment. Bayesian hierarchical regression model was used to estimate the trend, projection, and determinant analyses. Slope and relative index of inequality were used to assess wealth-based inequality. RESULTS: In the national-level health service indicators, inequality indices decreased substantially from 2000 to 2030. However, the wide inequalities are projected to remain in DTP3, measles, full immunisations, and antenatal care in 2030. The pro-rich inequality gap in catastrophic health expenditure increased significantly in all governorates except Sulaimaniya from 2007 to 2012. The higher increases in pro-rich inequality were found in Missan, Karbala, Erbil, and Diala. Mothers' higher education and more antenatal care visits were possible factors for increased coverage of health service indicators. The higher number of children and elderly population in the households were potential risk factors for an increased risk of catastrophic and impoverishing health payment in Iraq. CONCLUSIONS: To reduce inequality in Iraq, urgent health-system reform is needed, with consideration for vulnerable households having female-heads, less educated mothers, and more children and/or elderly people. Considering varying inequity between and within governorates in Iraq, reconstruction of primary healthcare across the country and cross-sectoral targeted interventions for women should be prioritised.


Subject(s)
Health Equity , Healthcare Disparities , Universal Health Insurance , Adult , Aged , Child , Family Characteristics , Female , Healthcare Disparities/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Infant, Newborn , Iraq , Male , Pregnancy , Socioeconomic Factors , Surveys and Questionnaires , Universal Health Insurance/statistics & numerical data , Young Adult
12.
Psychiatry Res ; 305: 114173, 2021 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1364413

ABSTRACT

Using daily vital statistics data from the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, we provide the first weekly and age-group-specific estimates of the additional suicide burden during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan by gender, from January through November 2020. Our results indicate that compared with the previous five years, suicide cases in 2020 in Japan have increased from late July to November for women in all age groups and for men in the 20-29 and 80+ years age group. Targeted interventions based on age and gender might be more effective in reducing suicide during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Suicide , Vital Statistics , Child, Preschool , Female , Humans , Japan/epidemiology , Male , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
14.
Environ Epidemiol ; 5(2): e146, 2021 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1191614

ABSTRACT

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

15.
Global Health ; 17(1): 42, 2021 04 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1175328

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has the potential to reverse progress towards global targets. This study examines the risks that the COVID-19 pandemic poses to equitable access to essential medicines and vaccines (EMV) for universal health coverage in Africa. METHODS: We searched medical databases and grey literature up to 2 October 2020 for studies reporting data on prospective pathways and innovative strategies relevant for the assessment and management of the emerging risks in accessibility, safety, quality, and affordability of EMV in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We used the resulting pool of evidence to support our analysis and to draw policy recommendations to mitigate the emerging risks and improve preparedness for future crises. RESULTS: Of the 310 records screened, 134 were included in the analysis. We found that the disruption of the international system affects more immediately the capability of low- and middle-income countries to acquire the basket of EMV. The COVID-19 pandemic may facilitate dishonesty and fraud, increasing the propensity of patients to take substandard and falsified drugs. Strategic regional cooperation in the form of joint tenders and contract awarding, joint price negotiation and supplier selection, as well as joint market research, monitoring, and evaluation could improve the supply, affordability, quality, and safety of EMV. Sustainable health financing along with international technology transfer and substantial investment in research and development are needed to minimize the vulnerability of African countries arising from their dependence on imported EMV. To ensure equitable access, community-based strategies such as mobile clinics as well as fees exemptions for vulnerable and under-served segments of society might need to be considered. Strategies such as task delegation and telephone triage could help reduce physician workload. This coupled with payments of risk allowance to frontline healthcare workers and health-literate healthcare organization might improve the appropriate use of EMV. CONCLUSIONS: Innovative and sustainable strategies informed by comparative risk assessment are increasingly needed to ensure that local economic, social, demographic, and epidemiological risks and potentials are accounted for in the national COVID-19 responses.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/economics , Drugs, Essential/economics , Drugs, Essential/supply & distribution , Universal Health Care , Vaccines/economics , Vaccines/supply & distribution , Africa , Developing Countries , Health Services Accessibility/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Patient Safety/statistics & numerical data , Prospective Studies , Quality of Health Care/statistics & numerical data , SARS-CoV-2
17.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 18(6)2021 03 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1154376

ABSTRACT

We evaluated the impact of the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on healthcare access in Japan in terms of the number of outpatients and hospitalized patients as well as the length of hospital stays, during the first wave of the pandemic, up to June 2020. This observational study evaluated the monthly average number of outpatients per day at hospitals, the average number of hospitalized patients per day, and the average length of hospital stays per patient, from December 2010 to June 2020, using the hospital reports data, which are open aggregated data on the utilization of hospitals from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. These numbers were compared with those from the same period of previous years, using a quasi-Poisson regression model. We found a nationwide decrease in the number of outpatients in general hospitals and hospitalized patients, particularly in long-term care beds in Japan, as well as the excess length of hospital stays among psychiatric care patients during the first wave of the COVID-19. This limited access to healthcare demonstrated the importance of the long-term health monitoring of vulnerable populations and the need for urgent management support to healthcare facilities in preparation for possible prolonged pandemics in the future.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Coronavirus , Humans , Japan/epidemiology , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
18.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 27(3): 789-795, 2021 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1100024

ABSTRACT

To provide insight into the mortality burden of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Japan, we estimated the excess all-cause deaths for each week during the pandemic, January-May 2020, by prefecture and age group. We applied quasi-Poisson regression models to vital statistics data. Excess deaths were expressed as the range of differences between the observed and expected number of all-cause deaths and the 95% upper bound of the 1-sided prediction interval. A total of 208-4,322 all-cause excess deaths at the national level indicated a 0.03%-0.72% excess in the observed number of deaths. Prefecture and age structure consistency between the reported COVID-19 deaths and our estimates was weak, suggesting the need to use cause-specific analyses to distinguish between direct and indirect consequences of COVID-19.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/mortality , COVID-19/diagnosis , Cause of Death , Humans , Japan/epidemiology , Mortality , SARS-CoV-2
19.
Sci Total Environ ; 768: 144723, 2021 May 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1065583

ABSTRACT

In Japan, in response to the spread of the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19), a 'new normal' in the era of the COVID-19 was proposed by the government, which calls for thorough wearing of masks as an infection control measure in the era of the COVID-19, but related heat illness has been a great concern this summer. We applied quasi-Poisson regression models to the daily number of emergency transportations due to heat illness from 2008 to 2020 from the Fire and Disaster Management Agency, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan, to estimate the expected weekly number of emergency transportations from heat illness, with adjustment for their long-term trend and the weather conditions, including temperatures. We found that, at the national level, the number of heat illness emergency transports did not significantly increase or decrease from the annual trend in 2020. By prefecture, on the other hand, there were some prefectures in which the number of heat illness emergency transports was less than the average year, and most of them were in the week of August 10-16. By age group, the number of heat illness emergency transports in the 0-17 and 18-64 age groups was particularly low in some prefectures, and by severity, those in mild cases was particularly low. A caution is necessary that there is a possibility that a decrease in cases possibly associated with COVID-19 measures, such as, outdoor activity restrictions at schools/universities and cancellation of public events, may offset the possible increase in heat illness cases occurring elsewhere associated with wearing masks. Given that the end of the COVID-19 pandemic is not expected yet, continuous and appropriate awareness-raising activities to prevent heat-related illness remain important.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Coronavirus , Heat Stress Disorders , Humans , Japan , Life Style , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
20.
Environ Health Perspect ; 128(11): 115001, 2020 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1054874

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Modeling suggests that climate change mitigation actions can have substantial human health benefits that accrue quickly and locally. Documenting the benefits can help drive more ambitious and health-protective climate change mitigation actions; however, documenting the adverse health effects can help to avoid them. Estimating the health effects of mitigation (HEM) actions can help policy makers prioritize investments based not only on mitigation potential but also on expected health benefits. To date, however, the wide range of incompatible approaches taken to developing and reporting HEM estimates has limited their comparability and usefulness to policymakers. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this effort was to generate guidance for modeling studies on scoping, estimating, and reporting population health effects from climate change mitigation actions. METHODS: An expert panel of HEM researchers was recruited to participate in developing guidance for conducting HEM studies. The primary literature and a synthesis of HEM studies were provided to the panel. Panel members then participated in a modified Delphi exercise to identify areas of consensus regarding HEM estimation. Finally, the panel met to review and discuss consensus findings, resolve remaining differences, and generate guidance regarding conducting HEM studies. RESULTS: The panel generated a checklist of recommendations regarding stakeholder engagement: HEM modeling, including model structure, scope and scale, demographics, time horizons, counterfactuals, health response functions, and metrics; parameterization and reporting; approaches to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis; accounting for policy uptake; and discounting. DISCUSSION: This checklist provides guidance for conducting and reporting HEM estimates to make them more comparable and useful for policymakers. Harmonization of HEM estimates has the potential to lead to advances in and improved synthesis of policy-relevant research that can inform evidence-based decision making and practice. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6745.


Subject(s)
Air Pollution , COVID-19 , Coronavirus , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome , Climate Change , Disease Outbreaks , Epidemiologic Studies , Humans , SARS-CoV-2
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