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PLoS One ; 16(8): e0256022, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1352710

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic rapidly increases the use of mechanical ventilation (MV). Such cases further require extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) and have a high mortality. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to identify prognostic biomarkers pathophysiologically reflecting future deterioration of COVID-19. METHODS: Clinical, laboratory, and outcome data were collected from 102 patients with moderate to severe COVID-19. Interleukin (IL)-6 level and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA copy number in plasma were assessed with ELISA kit and quantitative PCR. RESULTS: Twelve patients died or required ECMO owing to acute respiratory distress syndrome despite the use of MV. Among various variables, a ratio of oxygen saturation to fraction of inspired oxygen (SpO2/FiO2), IL-6, and SARS-CoV-2 RNA on admission before intubation were strongly predictive of fatal outcomes after the MV use. Moreover, among these variables, combining SpO2/FiO2, IL-6, and SARS-CoV-2 RNA showed the highest accuracy (area under the curve: 0.934). In patients with low SpO2/FiO2 (< 261), fatal event-rate after the MV use at the 30-day was significantly higher in patients with high IL-6 (> 49 pg/mL) and SARS-CoV-2 RNAaemia (> 1.5 copies/µL) compared to those with high IL-6 or RNAaemia or without high IL-6 and RNAaemia (88% vs. 22% or 8%, log-rank test P = 0.0097 or P < 0.0001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Combining SpO2/FiO2 with high IL-6 and SARS-CoV-2 RNAaemia which reflect hyperinflammation and viral overload allows accurately and before intubation identifying COVID-19 patients at high risk for ECMO use or in-hospital death despite the use of MV.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/mortality , Interleukin-6/blood , RNA, Viral/metabolism , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Area Under Curve , COVID-19/pathology , COVID-19/virology , Female , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Oxygen Consumption , Prognosis , Prospective Studies , ROC Curve , Respiration, Artificial , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Viral Load
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