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1.
Signal Transduct Target Ther ; 7(1): 242, 2022 07 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1937419

ABSTRACT

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused more than 6.3 million deaths to date. Despite great efforts to curb the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), vaccines and neutralizing antibodies are in the gloom due to persistent viral mutations and antiviral compounds face challenges of specificity and safety. In addition, vaccines are unable to treat already-infected individuals, and antiviral drugs cannot be used prophylactically. Therefore, exploration of unconventional strategies to curb the current pandemic is highly urgent. Alveolar macrophages (AMs) residing on the surface of alveoli are the first immune cells that dispose of alveoli-invading viruses. Our findings demonstrate that M1 AMs have an acidic endosomal pH, thus favoring SARS-CoV-2 to leave endosomes and release into the cytosol where the virus initiates replication; in contrast, M2 AMs have an increased endosomal pH, which dampens the viral escape and facilitates delivery of the virus for lysosomal degradation. In this review, we propose that AMs are the Achilles' heel of SARS-CoV-2 infection and that modulation of the endosomal pH of AMs has the potential to eliminate invaded SARS-CoV-2; the same strategy might also be suitable for other lethal respiratory viruses.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Vaccines , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , Humans , Macrophages, Alveolar , Pandemics/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2
2.
Chin Med J (Engl) ; 2022 Jul 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1931922

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: To date, there is no effective medicine to treat coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and the antiviral efficacy of arbidol in the treatment for COVID-19 remained equivocal and controversial. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of arbidol tablets in the treatment of COVID-19. METHODS: This was a prospective, open-label, controlled and multicenter investigator-initiated trial involving adult patients with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Patients were stratified 1:2 to either standard-of-care (SOC) or SOC plus arbidol tablets (oral administration of 200 mg per time, three times a day for 14 days). The primary endpoint was negative conversion of SARS-CoV-2 within the first week. The rates and 95% confidential intervals were calculated for each variable. RESULTS: A total of 99 patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were enrolled; 66 were assigned to the SOC plus arbidol tablets group, and 33 to the SOC group. The negative conversion rate of SARS-CoV-2 within the first week in patients receiving arbidol tablets was significantly higher than that of the SOC group (70.3% [45/64] vs. 42.4% [14/33]; difference of conversion rate 27.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.7%-48.1%; P  = 0.008). Compared to those in the SOC group, patients receiving arbidol tablets had a shorter duration of clinical recovery (median 7.0 days vs. 12.0 days; hazard ratio [HR]: 1.877, 95% CI: 1.151-3.060, P = 0.006), symptom of fever (median 3.0 days vs. 12.0 days; HR: 18.990, 95% CI: 5.350-67.410, P < 0.001), as well as hospitalization (median 12.5 days vs. 20.0 days; P < 0.001). Moreover, the addition of arbidol tablets to SOC led to more rapid normalization of declined blood lymphocytes (median 10.0 days vs. 14.5 days; P > 0.05). The most common adverse event in the arbidol tablets group was the elevation of transaminase (5/200, 2.5%), and no one withdrew from the study due to adverse events or disease progression. CONCLUSIONS: SOC plus arbidol tablets significantly increase the negative conversion rate of SARS-CoV-2 within the first week anas, accelerate the recovery of COVID-19 patients. During the treatment with arbidol tablets, we find no significant serious adverse events. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Chinese Clinical Trial Registry, NCT04260594, www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04260594?term=NCT04260594&draw=2&rank=1.

4.
Vaccines (Basel) ; 10(4)2022 Mar 23.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1820427

ABSTRACT

Objective The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has imposed significant costs on economies. Safe and effective vaccines are a key tool to control the pandemic; however, vaccination programs can be costly. Are the benefits they bestow worth the costs they incur? The relative value of COVID-19 vaccines has not been widely assessed. In this study, a cost-effectiveness analysis was performed to provide evidence of the economic value of vaccines in Hong Kong. Method We developed a Markov model of COVID-19 infections using a susceptible-infected-recovered structure over a 1-year time horizon from a Hong Kong healthcare sector perspective to measure resource utilization, economic burden, and disease outcomes. The model consisted of two arms: do nothing and implement a vaccination program. We assessed effectiveness using units of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) to measure the incremental cost-effectiveness at a HKD 1,000,000/QALY threshold. Results The vaccination program, which has reached approximately 72% of the population of Hong Kong with two vaccine doses, was found to have a cost of HKD 22,339,700 per QALY gained from February 2021 to February 2022. At a willingness-to-pay threshold, the vaccination program was not cost-effective in the context of the low prevalence of COVID-19 cases before the Omicron wave. However, the cost-effectiveness of a COVID-19 vaccine is sensitive to the infection rate. Hong Kong is now experiencing the fifth wave of the Omicron. It is estimated that the ICER of the vaccination program from February 2022 to February 2023 was HKD 310,094. The vaccination program in Hong Kong was cost-effective in the context of the Omicron. Conclusions Vaccination programs incur a large economic burden, and we therefore need to acknowledge their limitations in the short term. This will help relevant departments implement vaccination programs. From a longer-term perspective, the vaccination program will show great cost-effectiveness once infection rates are high in a regional outbreak. Compared with other age groups, it is suggested that the elderly population should be prioritized to improve the vaccine coverage rate.

5.
J Neuroophthalmol ; 2022 Mar 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1794963
7.
Protein Cell ; 13(12): 920-939, 2022 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1773029

ABSTRACT

SARS-CoV-2 infection causes complicated clinical manifestations with variable multi-organ injuries, however, the underlying mechanism, in particular immune responses in different organs, remains elusive. In this study, comprehensive transcriptomic alterations of 14 tissues from rhesus macaque infected with SARS-CoV-2 were analyzed. Compared to normal controls, SARS-CoV-2 infection resulted in dysregulation of genes involving diverse functions in various examined tissues/organs, with drastic transcriptomic changes in cerebral cortex and right ventricle. Intriguingly, cerebral cortex exhibited a hyperinflammatory state evidenced by significant upregulation of inflammation response-related genes. Meanwhile, expressions of coagulation, angiogenesis and fibrosis factors were also up-regulated in cerebral cortex. Based on our findings, neuropilin 1 (NRP1), a receptor of SARS-CoV-2, was significantly elevated in cerebral cortex post infection, accompanied by active immune response releasing inflammatory factors and signal transmission among tissues, which enhanced infection of the central nervous system (CNS) in a positive feedback way, leading to viral encephalitis. Overall, our study depicts a multi-tissue/organ transcriptomic landscapes of rhesus macaque with early infection of SARS-CoV-2, and provides important insights into the mechanistic basis for COVID-19-associated clinical complications.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Animals , COVID-19/genetics , Macaca mulatta , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Transcriptome
8.
Vaccines ; 10(4):495, 2022.
Article in English | MDPI | ID: covidwho-1762738

ABSTRACT

Objective The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has imposed significant costs on economies. Safe and effective vaccines are a key tool to control the pandemic;however, vaccination programs can be costly. Are the benefits they bestow worth the costs they incur? The relative value of COVID-19 vaccines has not been widely assessed. In this study, a cost-effectiveness analysis was performed to provide evidence of the economic value of vaccines in Hong Kong. Method We developed a Markov model of COVID-19 infections using a susceptible–infected–recovered structure over a 1-year time horizon from a Hong Kong healthcare sector perspective to measure resource utilization, economic burden, and disease outcomes. The model consisted of two arms: do nothing and implement a vaccination program. We assessed effectiveness using units of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) to measure the incremental cost-effectiveness at a HKD 1,000,000/QALY threshold. Results The vaccination program, which has reached approximately 72% of the population of Hong Kong with two vaccine doses, was found to have a cost of HKD 22,339,700 per QALY gained from February 2021 to February 2022. At a willingness-to-pay threshold, the vaccination program was not cost-effective in the context of the low prevalence of COVID-19 cases before the Omicron wave. However, the cost-effectiveness of a COVID-19 vaccine is sensitive to the infection rate. Hong Kong is now experiencing the fifth wave of the Omicron. It is estimated that the ICER of the vaccination program from February 2022 to February 2023 was HKD 310,094. The vaccination program in Hong Kong was cost-effective in the context of the Omicron. Conclusions Vaccination programs incur a large economic burden, and we therefore need to acknowledge their limitations in the short term. This will help relevant departments implement vaccination programs. From a longer-term perspective, the vaccination program will show great cost-effectiveness once infection rates are high in a regional outbreak. Compared with other age groups, it is suggested that the elderly population should be prioritized to improve the vaccine coverage rate.

9.
Contemp Clin Trials ; 116: 106736, 2022 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1750977

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: To identify and assess via simulation the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on oncology trials and discuss potential mitigation strategies for study design, data collection, endpoints and analyses. METHODS: We simulated clinical trials to evaluate the COVID-19 impact on overall survival and progression-free survival. We evaluated survival in single-region trials with different proportions of impacted patients across treatment arms, and in multi-region randomized trials with different proportions of impacted patients across regions. We also assessed the impact on PFS when the missingness of disease assessment and censoring rules vary. Impact on the trial success and robustness of statistical inference was summarized. RESULTS: Without regional impact, the impact on OS analysis is minimal if proportions of impacted patients are similar across arms, however, if a larger proportion of treatment arm patients are impacted, trials may suffer substantial power loss and underestimate treatment effect size. For multi-region trials, if more treatment arm patients are enrolled from more severely impacted regions, trials also have poorer performance. For PFS analysis, the intent-to-treat rule performs well even when the treatment arm patients are more likely to miss disease assessments, while the consecutive-missing censoring rule may lead to poorer performance. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 affects oncology trials. Simulations would be highly informative to Data Monitoring Committee in understanding the impact and making appropriate recommendations, upon which the sponsor could start planning potential remedies. We also recommend a decision tree for choosing the appropriate methods for PFS evaluation in the presence of missing disease assessments due to COVID-19.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Neoplasms , Clinical Trials as Topic , Data Collection , Humans , Neoplasms/therapy , Pandemics
10.
Reprod Biol Endocrinol ; 20(1): 46, 2022 Mar 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1736421

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to evaluate the influences of SARS-CoV-2 infection on semen parameters and investigate the impact of the infection on in vitro fertilization (IVF) outcomes. METHODS: This retrospective study enrolled couples undergoing IVF cycles between May 2020 and February 2021 at Tongji Hospital, Wuhan. Baseline characteristics were matched using propensity score matching. Participants were categorized into an unexposed group (SARS-COV-2 negative) and exposed group (SARS-COV-2 positive) based on a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and the populations were 148 and 50 after matching, respectively. IVF data were compared between the matched cohorts. Moreover, semen parameters were compared before and after infection among the infected males. The main measures were semen parameters and IVF outcomes, including laboratory and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Generally, the concentration and motility of sperm did not significantly differ before and after infection. Infected males seemed to have fewer sperm with normal morphology, while all values were above the limits. Notably, the blastocyst formation rate and available blastocyst rate in the exposed group were lower than those in the control group, despite similar mature oocytes rates, normal fertilization rates, cleavage rates, and high-quality embryo rates. Moreover, no significant differences were exhibited between the matched cohorts regarding the implantation rate, biochemical pregnancy rate, clinical pregnancy rate, or early miscarriage rate. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this retrospective cohort study suggested that the semen quality and the chance of pregnancy in terms of IVF outcomes were comparable between the males with a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection and controls, although a decreased blastocyst formation rate and available blastocyst rate was observed in the exposed group, which needs to be reinforced by a multicenter long-term investigation with a larger sample size.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/physiopathology , Fertilization in Vitro/methods , Semen/physiology , Sperm Injections, Intracytoplasmic/methods , Sperm Motility/physiology , Adult , Blastocyst/cytology , Blastocyst/physiology , COVID-19/virology , Embryo Implantation , Embryo Transfer , Female , Humans , Male , Pregnancy , Pregnancy Rate , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2/physiology , Semen/cytology , Sperm Count , Treatment Outcome
11.
Prev Med Rep ; 26: 101751, 2022 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1712911

ABSTRACT

This study aims to investigate the association between alcohol consumption and COVID-19, infectious diseases, and pneumonia mortality. This is a prospective analysis of 437,191 UK Biobank participants (age 56.3 years, 54% female). The main exposure was self-reported alcohol consumption. In addition to never and previous drinkers, we applied quartiles-based and UK guidelines-based criteria to divide current drinkers by weekly consumption into four groups. Outcomes included COVID-19, infectious diseases, and pneumonia mortality, obtained from the national death registries until May 2020. After an 11-year follow-up, compared to never drinkers, previous drinkers had higher mortality risks of infectious diseases and pneumonia (adjusted HR: 1.29 [95% CI 1.06-1.57] and 1.35 [1.07-1.70], respectively), but not COVID-19. There was a curvilinear association of alcohol consumption with infectious diseases and pneumonia mortality. Drinking within-guidelines (<14 UK units/wk) and amounts up to double the recommendation (14 to < 28 UK units/wk) was associated with the lowest mortality risks of infectious diseases (0.70 [0.59-0.83] and 0.70 [0.59-0.83], respectively) and pneumonia (0.71 [0.58-0.87] and 0.72 [0.58-0.88], respectively). Alcohol consumption was associated with lower risks of COVID-19 mortality (e.g., drinking within-guidelines: 0.53 [0.33-0.86]). Drinkers reporting multiples of the recommended alcohol drinking amounts did not have higher mortality risks of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases than never drinkers. Despite the well-established unfavorable effects on general health, we found no deleterious associations between alcohol consumption and the risk of infectious diseases, including COVID-19. Future research with other study designs is needed to confirm the causality.

12.
EuropePMC;
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-326495

ABSTRACT

Knowledge graphs (KGs) on COVID-19 have been constructed to accelerate the research process of COVID-19. However, KGs are always incomplete, especially the new constructed COVID-19 KGs. Link prediction task aims to predict missing entities for (e, r, t) or (h, r, e), where h and t are certain entities, e is an entity that needs to be predicted and r is a relation. This task also has the potential to solve COVID-19 related KGs' incomplete problem. Although various knowledge graph embedding (KGE) approaches have been proposed to the link prediction task, these existing methods suffer from the limitation of using a single scoring function, which fails to capture rich features of COVID-19 KGs. In this work, we propose the MDistMult model that leverages multiple scoring functions to extract more features from existing triples. We employ experiments on the CCKS2020 COVID-19 Antiviral Drugs Knowledge Graph (CADKG). The experimental results demonstrate that our MDistMult achieves state-of-the-art performance in link prediction task on the CADKG dataset

13.
EuropePMC; 2021.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-324533

ABSTRACT

SARS-CoV-2 infection causes complicated clinic manifestations with variable multi-organ injuries, however, the underlying mechanism, in particular immune responses in different organs, remains elusive. In this study, comprehensive transcriptomic alterations of 14 tissues from rhesus macaque infected with SARS-CoV-2 were analyzed. Compared to normal controls, SARS-CoV-2 infection resulted in dysregulation of genes involving diverse functions in various tissues/organs examined, with drastic transcriptomic changes in cerebral cortex and right ventricle. Intriguingly, cerebral cortex exhibited a hyperinflammatory state evidenced by significant upregulation of inflammation response-related genes. Meanwhile, expressions of coagulation, angiogenesis and fibrosis factors were also up-regulated in cerebral cortex. Neuronal receptor NRP1 expression showed a significant induction by SARS-CoV-2 in cerebral cortex, which might be responsible for a higher infectivity and consequent inflammatory response. Overall, our study depicts a multi-tissue/organ transcriptomic landscapes of rhesus macaque with early infection of SARS-CoV-2, and provides important insights into the mechanistic basis for COVID-19-associated clinical complications.

14.
EuropePMC; 2020.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-319969

ABSTRACT

Background: Until July 14, 2020, coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) has infected more than 130 million individuals and has caused a certain degree of panic. Viral pneumonia caused by common viruses such as respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, human metapneumovirus, human bocavirus, and parainfluenza viruses have been more common in children. However, the incidence of COVID-19 in children was significantly lower than that in adults. The purpose of this study was to describe the clinical manifestations, treatment and outcomes of COVID-19 in children compared to those of other sources of viral pneumonia diagnosed during the COVID-19 outbreak. Methods: Children with COVID-19 and viral pneumonia admitted to 20 hospitals were enrolled in this retrospective multi-center cohort study. A total of 64 children with COVID-19 were defined as the COVID-19 cohort, of which 40 children who developed pneumonia were defined as the COVID-19 pneumonia cohort. Another 284 children with pneumonia caused by other viruses were defined as the viral pneumonia cohort. Results: Compared to the viral pneumonia cohort, children in the COVID-19 cohort were mostly exposed to family members confirmed to have COVID-19 (53/64 vs. 23/284), were of older median age (6.3 vs. 3.2 years), and had a higher proportion of ground-glass opacity (GGO) on computed tomography (18/40 vs. 0/38) (all P <0.001). Children in the COVID-19 pneumonia cohort had a lower proportion of severe cases (1/40 vs. 38/284, P =0.048), and lower cases with high fever (3/40 vs 167/284, P <0.001), requiring intensive care (1/40 vs 32/284, P <0.047) and with shorter symptomatic duration (median 5 vs 8 days, P <0.001). The proportion of cases with evaluated inflammatory indicators, biochemical indicators related to organ or tissue damage, D-dimer and secondary bacterial infection were lower in the COVID-19 pneumonia cohort than in the viral pneumonia cohort (all P <0.05). No statistical differences were found in the duration of positive PCR results from pharyngeal swabs in 25 children with COVID-19 who received antiviral drugs (lopinavir-ritonavir, ribavirin, and arbidol) as compared to duration in 39 children without antiviral therapy [median 10 vs. 9 days, P =0.885]. Conclusion: The symptoms and severity of COVID-19 pneumonia in children were no more severe than those in children with other viral pneumonias. Lopinavir-ritonavir, ribavirin and arbidol do not shorten the duration of positive PCR results from pharyngeal swabs in children with COVID-19. During the COVID-19 outbreak, attention also must be given to children with infection by other pathogens infection.

15.
EuropePMC; 2020.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-315246

ABSTRACT

We conduct an online experiment to investigate the effect of the COVID-19 outbreak on people’s expectation about the macroeconomy, including economic growth rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate, and their consumption, income, saving, and investment. We find that ambiguity aversion and time preference affect macroeconomic expectations. Ambiguity averse subjects are more pessimistic about the Covid-19 outbreak’s impact on the economic growth rate and are more likely to reduce their consumption. Subjects with a lower discount factor have more optimistic expectations, as they are less likely to expect lower economic growth, lower income, lower investment, higher inflation, and higher unemployment.

16.
EuropePMC; 2021.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-312682

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 resurgences worldwide have posed significant challenges to the formulation of preventive interventions, especially given that the effects of physical distancing and upcoming vaccines on reducing susceptible social contacts and eventually halting transmission are still unclear. Using anonymized mobile geolocation data in China, we devised a mobility-associated social contact index to quantify the impact of both physical distancing and vaccination measures in a unified way such that the gap between intervention measures and disease transmission can be explicitly bridged. This index explained 90% of the variance in the changing reproduction number of infections across the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, and was validated in six other cities of different population densities. Our simulations showed that vaccination combined with physical distancing can contain resurgences without relying on mobility reduction, whereas a gradual vaccination process alone cannot achieve this. Further, for cities with medium-population density, vaccination can shorten the duration of physical distancing by 36%-78%, whereas for cities with high-population density, infection numbers can well be controlled through moderate physical distancing. These findings provide guidance on tailoring and implementing comprehensive interventions for cities with varying population densities.

17.
Cell Mol Immunol ; 19(2): 210-221, 2022 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1608557

ABSTRACT

Exploring the cross-talk between the immune system and advanced biomaterials to treat SARS-CoV-2 infection is a promising strategy. Here, we show that ACE2-overexpressing A549 cell-derived microparticles (AO-MPs) are a potential therapeutic agent against SARS-CoV-2 infection. Intranasally administered AO-MPs dexterously navigate the anatomical and biological features of the lungs to enter the alveoli and are taken up by alveolar macrophages (AMs). Then, AO-MPs increase the endosomal pH but decrease the lysosomal pH in AMs, thus escorting bound SARS-CoV-2 from phago-endosomes to lysosomes for degradation. This pH regulation is attributable to oxidized cholesterol, which is enriched in AO-MPs and translocated to endosomal membranes, thus interfering with proton pumps and impairing endosomal acidification. In addition to promoting viral degradation, AO-MPs also inhibit the proinflammatory phenotype of AMs, leading to increased treatment efficacy in a SARS-CoV-2-infected mouse model without side effects. These findings highlight the potential use of AO-MPs to treat SARS-CoV-2-infected patients and showcase the feasibility of MP therapies for combatting emerging respiratory viruses in the future.


Subject(s)
Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2/administration & dosage , Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2/metabolism , COVID-19/metabolism , COVID-19/therapy , Cell- and Tissue-Based Therapy/methods , Cell-Derived Microparticles/metabolism , Cholesterol/metabolism , Endosomes/chemistry , Macrophages, Alveolar/metabolism , SARS-CoV-2/metabolism , A549 Cells , Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2/genetics , Animals , COVID-19/virology , Chlorocebus aethiops , Disease Models, Animal , Female , Humans , Hydrogen-Ion Concentration , Lysosomes/chemistry , Mice , Mice, Inbred ICR , Mice, Transgenic , Oxidation-Reduction , RAW 264.7 Cells , Treatment Outcome , Vero Cells
18.
Front Mol Biosci ; 8: 791885, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1597180

ABSTRACT

The SARS-CoV-2 spike has been regarded as the main target of antibody design against COVID-19. Two single-site mutations, R190K and N121Q, were deemed to weaken the binding affinity of biliverdin although the underlying molecular mechanism is still unknown. Meanwhile, the effect of the two mutations on the conformational changes of "lip" and "gate" loops was also elusive. Thus, molecular dynamics simulation and molecular mechanics/generalized Born surface area (MM/GBSA) free energy calculation were conducted on the wild-type and two other SARS-CoV-2 spike mutants. Our simulations indicated that the R190K mutation causes Lys190 to form six hydrogen bonds, guided by Asn99 and Ile101, which brings Lys190 closer to Arg102 and Asn121, thereby weakening the interaction energy between biliverdin and Ile101 as well as Lys190. For the N121Q mutation, Gln121 still maintained a hydrogen bond with biliverdin; nevertheless, the overall binding mode deviated significantly under the reversal of the side chain of Phe175. Moreover, the two mutants would stabilize the lip loop, which would restrain the meaningful upward movement of the lip. In addition, N121Q significantly promoted the gate loop deviating to the biliverdin binding site and compressed the site. This work would be useful in understanding the dynamics binding biliverdin to the SARS-CoV-2 spike.

20.
Healthcare (Basel) ; 9(10)2021 Sep 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1444164

ABSTRACT

The ongoing spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in most South and Southeast Asian countries has led to severe health and economic impacts. Evaluating the performance of nonpharmaceutical interventions in reducing the number of daily new cases is essential for policy designs. Analysis of the growth rate of daily new cases indicates that the value (5.47%) decreased significantly after nonpharmaceutical interventions were adopted (1.85%). Vaccinations failed to significantly reduce the growth rates, which were 0.67% before vaccination and 2.44% and 2.05% after 14 and 28 d of vaccination, respectively. Stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions have been loosened after vaccination drives in most countries. To predict the spread of COVID-19 and clarify the implications to adjust nonpharmaceutical interventions, we build a susceptible-infected-recovered-vaccinated (SIRV) model with a nonpharmaceutical intervention module and Metropolis-Hastings sampling in three scenarios (optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic). The daily new cases are expected to decrease rapidly or increase with a flatter curve with stronger nonpharmaceutical interventions, and the peak date is expected to occur earlier (5-20 d) with minimum infections. These findings demonstrate that adopting stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions is the key to alleviating the spread of COVID-19 before attaining worldwide herd immunity.

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