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1.
PLoS One ; 16(8): e0251378, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1354756

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The benefit of tocilizumab on mortality and time to recovery in people with severe COVID pneumonia may depend on appropriate timing. The objective was to estimate the impact of tocilizumab administration on switching respiratory support states, mortality and time to recovery. METHODS: In an observational study, a continuous-time Markov multi-state model was used to describe the sequence of respiratory support states including: no respiratory support (NRS), oxygen therapy (OT), non-invasive ventilation (NIV) or invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), OT in recovery, NRS in recovery. RESULTS: Two hundred seventy-one consecutive adult patients were included in the analyses contributing to 695 transitions across states. The prevalence of patients in each respiratory support state was estimated with stack probability plots, comparing people treated with and without tocilizumab since the beginning of the OT state. A positive effect of tocilizumab on the probability of moving from the invasive and non-invasive mechanical NIV/IMV state to the OT in recovery state (HR = 2.6, 95% CI = 1.2-5.2) was observed. Furthermore, a reduced risk of death was observed in patients in NIV/IMV (HR = 0.3, 95% CI = 0.1-0.7) or in OT (HR = 0.1, 95% CI = 0.0-0.8) treated with tocilizumab. CONCLUSION: To conclude, we were able to show the positive impact of tocilizumab used in different disease stages depicted by respiratory support states. The use of the multi-state Markov model allowed to harmonize the heterogeneous mortality and recovery endpoints and summarize results with stack probability plots. This approach could inform randomized clinical trials regarding tocilizumab, support disease management and hospital decision making.


Subject(s)
Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized/therapeutic use , COVID-19/drug therapy , Respiratory Therapy/methods , Aged , Female , Humans , Male , Markov Chains , Middle Aged , Noninvasive Ventilation , Oxygen Inhalation Therapy , Respiration, Artificial , Time Factors , Treatment Outcome
2.
AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses ; 37(4): 283-291, 2021 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1207222

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study was to evaluate both positive outcomes, including reduction of respiratory support aid and duration of hospital stay, and negative ones, including mortality and a composite of invasive mechanical ventilation or death, in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia treated with or without oral darunavir/cobicistat (DRV/c, 800/150 mg/day) used in different treatment durations. The secondary objective was to evaluate the percentage of patients treated with DRV/c who were exposed to potentially severe drug-drug interactions (DDIs) and died during hospitalization. This observational retrospective study was conducted in consecutive patients with COVID-19 pneumonia admitted to a tertiary care hospital in Modena, Italy. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazards regression were used to compare patients receiving standard of care with or without DRV/c. Adjustment for key confounders was applied. Two hundred seventy-three patients (115 on DRV/c) were included, 75.8% males, mean age was 64.6 (±13.2) years. Clinical improvement was similar between the groups, depicted by respiratory aid switch (p > .05). The same was observed for duration of hospital stay [13.2 (±8.9) for DRV/c vs. 13.4 (±7.2) days for no-DRV/c, p = .9]. Patients on DRV/c had higher rates of mortality (25.2% vs. 10.1%, p < .0001. The rate of composite outcome of mechanical ventilation and death was higher in the DRV/c group (37.4% vs. 25.3%, p = .03). Multiple serious DDI associated with DRV/c were observed in the 19 patients who died. DRV/c should not be recommended as a treatment option for COVID-19 pneumonia outside clinical trials.


Subject(s)
Anti-HIV Agents/therapeutic use , COVID-19/drug therapy , Cobicistat/therapeutic use , Darunavir/therapeutic use , Adult , Anti-HIV Agents/adverse effects , COVID-19/mortality , COVID-19/virology , Cobicistat/adverse effects , Darunavir/adverse effects , Drug Combinations , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification
3.
AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses ; 37(4): 283-291, 2021 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1096474

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study was to evaluate both positive outcomes, including reduction of respiratory support aid and duration of hospital stay, and negative ones, including mortality and a composite of invasive mechanical ventilation or death, in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia treated with or without oral darunavir/cobicistat (DRV/c, 800/150 mg/day) used in different treatment durations. The secondary objective was to evaluate the percentage of patients treated with DRV/c who were exposed to potentially severe drug-drug interactions (DDIs) and died during hospitalization. This observational retrospective study was conducted in consecutive patients with COVID-19 pneumonia admitted to a tertiary care hospital in Modena, Italy. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazards regression were used to compare patients receiving standard of care with or without DRV/c. Adjustment for key confounders was applied. Two hundred seventy-three patients (115 on DRV/c) were included, 75.8% males, mean age was 64.6 (±13.2) years. Clinical improvement was similar between the groups, depicted by respiratory aid switch (p > .05). The same was observed for duration of hospital stay [13.2 (±8.9) for DRV/c vs. 13.4 (±7.2) days for no-DRV/c, p = .9]. Patients on DRV/c had higher rates of mortality (25.2% vs. 10.1%, p < .0001. The rate of composite outcome of mechanical ventilation and death was higher in the DRV/c group (37.4% vs. 25.3%, p = .03). Multiple serious DDI associated with DRV/c were observed in the 19 patients who died. DRV/c should not be recommended as a treatment option for COVID-19 pneumonia outside clinical trials.


Subject(s)
Anti-HIV Agents/therapeutic use , COVID-19/drug therapy , Cobicistat/therapeutic use , Darunavir/therapeutic use , Adult , Anti-HIV Agents/adverse effects , COVID-19/mortality , COVID-19/virology , Cobicistat/adverse effects , Darunavir/adverse effects , Drug Combinations , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification
4.
Clin Microbiol Infect ; 27(8): 1137-1144, 2021 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-996799

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Sex differences in COVID-19 severity and mortality have been described. Key aims of this analysis were to compare the risk of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and mortality by sex and to explore whether variation in specific biomarkers could mediate this difference. METHODS: This was a retrospective, observational cohort study among patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia. A survival analysis was conducted to compare time to the composite endpoint of IMV or death according to sex. Interaction was formally tested to compare the risk difference by sex in sub-populations. Mediation analysis with a binary endpoint IMV or death (yes/no) by day 28 of follow-up for a number of inflammation/coagulation biomarkers in the context of counterfactual prediction was also conducted. RESULTS: Among 415 patients, 134 were females (32%) and 281 males (67%), median age 66 years (IQR 54-77). At admission, females showed a significantly less severe clinical and respiratory profiles with a higher PaO2/FiO2 (254 mmHg vs. 191 mmHg; p 0.023). By 28 days from admission, 49.2% (95% CI 39.6-58.9%) of males vs. 31.7% (17.9-45.4%) of females underwent IMV or death (log-rank p < 0.0001) and this amounted to a difference in terms of HR of 0.40 (0.26-0.63, p 0.0001). The area under the curve in C-reactive protein (CRP) over the study period appeared to explain 85% of this difference in risk by sex. DISCUSSION: Our analysis confirms a difference in the risk of COVID-19 clinical progression by sex and provides a hypothesis for potential mechanisms leading to this. Specifically, CRP showed a predominant role to mediate the difference in risk by sex.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/diagnosis , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/virology , Cohort Studies , Female , Hospitalization , Humans , Inflammation , Male , Middle Aged , Prognosis , Respiration, Artificial , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , Sex Factors
5.
PLoS One ; 15(11): e0239172, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-922701

ABSTRACT

AIMS: The aim of this study was to estimate a 48 hour prediction of moderate to severe respiratory failure, requiring mechanical ventilation, in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. METHODS: This was an observational prospective study that comprised consecutive patients with COVID-19 pneumonia admitted to hospital from 21 February to 6 April 2020. The patients' medical history, demographic, epidemiologic and clinical data were collected in an electronic patient chart. The dataset was used to train predictive models using an established machine learning framework leveraging a hybrid approach where clinical expertise is applied alongside a data-driven analysis. The study outcome was the onset of moderate to severe respiratory failure defined as PaO2/FiO2 ratio <150 mmHg in at least one of two consecutive arterial blood gas analyses in the following 48 hours. Shapley Additive exPlanations values were used to quantify the positive or negative impact of each variable included in each model on the predicted outcome. RESULTS: A total of 198 patients contributed to generate 1068 usable observations which allowed to build 3 predictive models based respectively on 31-variables signs and symptoms, 39-variables laboratory biomarkers and 91-variables as a composition of the two. A fourth "boosted mixed model" included 20 variables was selected from the model 3, achieved the best predictive performance (AUC = 0.84) without worsening the FN rate. Its clinical performance was applied in a narrative case report as an example. CONCLUSION: This study developed a machine model with 84% prediction accuracy, which is able to assist clinicians in decision making process and contribute to develop new analytics to improve care at high technology readiness levels.


Subject(s)
Computer Simulation , Coronavirus Infections/complications , Machine Learning , Pneumonia, Viral/complications , Respiratory Insufficiency/diagnosis , Aged , Betacoronavirus , Blood Gas Analysis , COVID-19 , Female , Humans , Italy , Male , Middle Aged , Models, Statistical , Pandemics , Prospective Studies , Respiration, Artificial , Respiratory Insufficiency/etiology , SARS-CoV-2
6.
EMBO Mol Med ; 12(12): e13001, 2020 12 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-881540

ABSTRACT

In patients infected by SARS-CoV-2 who experience an exaggerated inflammation leading to pneumonia, monocytes likely play a major role but have received poor attention. Thus, we analyzed peripheral blood monocytes from patients with COVID-19 pneumonia and found that these cells show signs of altered bioenergetics and mitochondrial dysfunction, had a reduced basal and maximal respiration, reduced spare respiratory capacity, and decreased proton leak. Basal extracellular acidification rate was also diminished, suggesting reduced capability to perform aerobic glycolysis. Although COVID-19 monocytes had a reduced ability to perform oxidative burst, they were still capable of producing TNF and IFN-γ in vitro. A significantly high amount of monocytes had depolarized mitochondria and abnormal mitochondrial ultrastructure. A redistribution of monocyte subsets, with a significant expansion of intermediate/pro-inflammatory cells, and high amounts of immature monocytes were found, along with a concomitant compression of classical monocytes, and an increased expression of inhibitory checkpoints like PD-1/PD-L1. High plasma levels of several inflammatory cytokines and chemokines, including GM-CSF, IL-18, CCL2, CXCL10, and osteopontin, finally confirm the importance of monocytes in COVID-19 immunopathogenesis.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/pathology , Energy Metabolism/physiology , Mitochondria/metabolism , Monocytes/metabolism , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/virology , Case-Control Studies , Chemokines/blood , Cytokines/blood , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Mitochondria/ultrastructure , Monocytes/cytology , Programmed Cell Death 1 Receptor/genetics , Programmed Cell Death 1 Receptor/metabolism , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification
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