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Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 28(33): 44812-44817, 2021 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1303355


The infectiousness of COVID-19 is high among the susceptible population, making the calculation of the reproduction number (R) an essential step to implement preventive measures. We aim to estimate COVID-19 transmission to determine if the disease is successfully controlled or extra measured should be adopted to attain this goal. The daily incidence data of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia from March 2nd, 2020, to April 4th, 2021, were obtained from the continuously updated Saudi Ministry of Health COVID-19 repository. To get accurate estimation of the situation over the last 4 months (from December 1st, 2020, to April 4th, 2021), we calculated the weekly (every 7 days) R starting from March 2nd, 2020, and till the last week of the available data. The calculated values of R were represented as median, first quantile (Q1), and third quantile (Q3). As early as the first week of December 2020, the median R was 0.81 (0.80-0.83) which means that each existing infected case would transmit infection to only one person. This was followed by fluctuations over the next few weeks around R value of 1, reaching its highest level of 1.45 (1.42-1.47) between December 31st, 2020, and January 6th, 2021. This was followed by a relatively steady decline over the following weeks, with some till mid-March where the R values started to slightly rise again. Social distancing, protective precautions, avoiding abuse of the partial lifting, expanding the screening process, and other Saudi measures sound to be successful and should be replicated in similar communities. This measure should be continued till the vaccination process is completed, to reduce the number of contacts and to avoid uncontrolled transmission of the disease.

COVID-19 , Humans , Reproduction , SARS-CoV-2 , Saudi Arabia
Australasian Medical Journal (Online) ; 14(3):84-91, 2021.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1184130


Background Studies have suggested several biomarkers related to disease progression, severity and outcome of COVID-19 infection including lymphocyte count, neutrophil count, neutrophil lymphocyte ration (NLR), C-reactive protein (CRP), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), platelet count, procalcitonin (PCT), interleukin 6 (IL-6), D-dimer, troponin, creatine kinase (CK), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and many others.1 These biomarkers were found to have significant roles in the monitoring among COVID-19 patients and will help clinicians in the management protocols. Lymphopenia was found to be associated with poor outcome and predicts disease severity among patients with COVID-19.2 These studies have reported that more severe outcomes and disease progression of COVID-19 infection occur with lymphopenic patients particularly among younger patients.2 Patients with lymphopenia were reported to have a 3-fold higher risk of developing severe COVID-19.3 Higher neutrophil count and NLR have been observed among severe COVID-19 cases as much as 5.9-fold compared to patients with mild and moderate infection.4 Marked increase in the CRP level and its association with IL6 6 also reported to predict disease severity in its early stages especially among critical patients who need more aggressive management.5 Studies have also shown the association between elevated ESR, D-dimer and IL-6 with severe COVID-19 infection among older patients aged >60 years old.6 Coagulopathies were also reported among critical COVID-19 patients and the association between thrombocytopenia and COVID-19 severity and mortality was suggested.7 The multitude of studies that were conducted to determine useful laboratory markers to predict severe outcomes and mortality form COVID-19 was exorbitant. Method We conducted a prospective cohort observational study among adult patients aged 18 years old and above who presented with signs and symptoms of COVID-19 infection (cough, fever, difficulty/shortness of breath and malaise) and history of exposure to COVID-19 at the Emergency Department (ED) of King Saud University Medical City in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Sub analysis of 245 COVID (+) patients with severity and mortality showed that patients who were admitted to the ICU had significantly higher levels of WBC count (p=0.030), neutrophils (p<0.001), N/L ratio (p<0.001), D-dimer (p=0.006), potassium (p=0.009), ferritin (p<0.001), CRP (p<0.001), ESR (p=0.024), cortisol (p=0.037) and longer hospital stay (p<0.001) but significantly lower levels of haemoglobin (p=0.027) and FT3 (p<0.001) compared to patients who were not admitted to the ICU.

SSRN; 2020.
Preprint | SSRN | ID: ppcovidwho-1076


Background: COVID-19, a novel coronavirus, is currently a major worldwide threat. It has infected more than a million people globally leading to hundred-thousan