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Cities ; 2020.
Article | WHO COVID | ID: covidwho-693589


The special epistemic characteristics of the COVID-19, such as the long incubation period and the infection through asymptomatic cases, put severe challenge to the containment of its outbreak By the end of March, 2020, China has successfully controlled the within- spreading of COVID-19 at a high cost of locking down most of its major cities, including the epicenter, Wuhan Since the low accuracy of outbreak data before the mid of Feb 2020 forms a major technical concern on those studies based on statistic inference from the early outbreak We apply the supervised learning techniques to identify and train NP-Net-SIR model which turns out robust under poor data quality condition By the trained model parameters, we analyze the connection between population flow and the cross-regional infection connection strength, based on which a set of counterfactual analysis is carried out to study the necessity of lock-down and substitutability between lock-down and the other containment measures Our findings support the existence of non-lock-down-typed measures that can reach the same containment consequence as the lock-down, and provide useful guideline for the design of a more flexible containment strategy

Environ Sci Technol ; 2020 Jun 26.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-599983


The Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rapidly spreading throughout the world. Aerosol is a potential transmission route. We conducted the quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to evaluate the aerosol transmission risk by using the South China Seafood Market as an example. The key processes were integrated, including viral shedding, dispersion, deposition in air, biologic decay, lung deposition, and the infection risk based on the dose-response model. The available hospital bed for COVID-19 treatment per capita (1.17 × 10-3) in Wuhan was adopted as a reference for manageable risk. The median risk of a customer to acquire SARS-CoV-2 infection via the aerosol route after 1 h of exposure in the market with one infected shopkeeper was about 2.23 × 10-5 (95% confidence interval: 1.90 × 10-6 to 2.34 × 10-4). The upper bound could increase and become close to the manageable risk with multiple infected shopkeepers. More detailed risk assessment should be conducted in poorly ventilated markets with multiple infected cases. The uncertainties were mainly due to the limited information on the dose-response relation and the viral shedding which need further studies. The risk rapidly decreased outside the market due to the dilution by ambient air and became below 10-6 at 5 m away from the exit.

Preprint | bioRxiv | ID: ppbiorxiv-137380


ObjectivePrevious study indicated that bladder cells which express ACE2 were a potential infection route of 2019-nCov. This study observed some differences of bladder cell cluster and their ACE2 expression between OAB mice and healthy mice, indicating the change of infectious possibility and pathway under overactive bladder (OAB) circumstance. Material and methodPubic dataset acquisition was used to get ACE2 expression in normal human bladder and mice bladder (GSE129845). We built up over OAB model and studied the impact on cell typing and ACE2 expression. By way of using single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) technique, bladder cell clustering and ACE2 expression in various cell types were measured respectively. ResultIn pubic database (healthy human and mice bladder), ACE2 expression in humans and mice is concentrated in bladder epithelial cells. The disappearance of umbrella cells, a component of bladder epithelial, was found in our OAB model. In the two mouse bladder samples, ACE2 expression of epithelial cells is 34.1%, also the highest of all cell types. ConclusionThe disappearance of umbrella cell may alternate the infection pathway of 2019-nCov and relate to the onset and progression of OAB.