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PLoS One ; 16(10): e0258914, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1480460


BACKGROUND: Risk factors of severe COVID-19 have mainly been investigated in the hospital setting. We investigated pre-defined risk factors for testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection and cardiovascular or pulmonary complications in the outpatient setting. METHODS: The present cohort study makes use of ambulatory claims data of statutory health insurance physicians in Bavaria, Germany, with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test confirmed or excluded SARS-CoV-2 infection in first three quarters of 2020. Statistical modelling and machine learning were used for effect estimation and for hypothesis testing of risk factors, and for prognostic modelling of cardiovascular or pulmonary complications. RESULTS: A cohort of 99 811 participants with PCR test was identified. In a fully adjusted multivariable regression model, dementia (odds ratio (OR) = 1.36), type 2 diabetes (OR = 1.14) and obesity (OR = 1.08) were identified as significantly associated with a positive PCR test result. Significant risk factors for cardiovascular or pulmonary complications were coronary heart disease (CHD) (OR = 2.58), hypertension (OR = 1.65), tobacco consumption (OR = 1.56), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (OR = 1.53), previous pneumonia (OR = 1.53), chronic kidney disease (CKD) (OR = 1.25) and type 2 diabetes (OR = 1.23). Three simple decision rules derived from prognostic modelling based on age, hypertension, CKD, COPD and CHD were able to identify high risk patients with a sensitivity of 74.8% and a specificity of 80.0%. CONCLUSIONS: The decision rules achieved a high prognostic accuracy non-inferior to complex machine learning methods. They might help to identify patients at risk, who should receive special attention and intensified protection in ambulatory care.

Ambulatory Care , COVID-19 , Coronary Disease , Hypertension , Renal Insufficiency, Chronic , SARS-CoV-2 , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/complications , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/therapy , Coronary Disease/epidemiology , Coronary Disease/therapy , Dementia/epidemiology , Dementia/therapy , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/epidemiology , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/therapy , Female , Germany , Humans , Hypertension/epidemiology , Hypertension/therapy , Male , Middle Aged , Obesity/epidemiology , Obesity/therapy , Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/epidemiology , Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/therapy , Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/epidemiology , Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/therapy , Risk Assessment , Risk Factors
BMJ Open ; 11(9): e051167, 2021 09 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1406661


OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine German patients': (1) self-estimation of the impact of the pandemic on their health and healthcare; and (2) use of digital self-care practices during the pandemic. DESIGN: Cross-sectional mixed-methods survey. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: General practice patients from four physicians' offices located in urban and rural areas of Bavaria, Germany, between 21 July 2020 and 17 October 2020. A total of 254 patients participated (55% response rate); 57% (262 of 459) identified as female and participants had an average age of 39.3 years. Patients were eligible to participate if they were 18 years or older and spoke German, and had access to the internet. RESULTS: (1) Healthcare for patients was affected by the pandemic, and the mental health of a small group of respondents was particularly affected. The risk of depression and anxiety disorder was significantly increased in patients with quarantine experience. (2) Self-care practices have increased; more than one-third (39%) of participants indicated that they started a new or additional self-care practice during the pandemic, and about a quarter (23%) of patients who were not previously engaged in self-care practices started new self-care activities for the first time; however, such practices were not necessarily digital. CONCLUSIONS: Further investigation is required to understand the relationship between digital self-care and public health events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, and to develop strategies to alleviate the burden of the quarantine experience for patients.

COVID-19 , Pandemics , Adult , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , SARS-CoV-2 , Self Care , Surveys and Questionnaires