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1.
J Epidemiol Community Health ; 76(3): 254-260, 2022 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1443618

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The Veterans Health Administration COVID-19 (VACO) Index predicts 30-day all-cause mortality in patients with COVID-19 using age, sex and pre-existing comorbidity diagnoses. The VACO Index was initially developed and validated in a nationwide cohort of US veterans-we now assess its accuracy in an academic medical centre and a nationwide US Medicare cohort. METHODS: With measures and weights previously derived and validated in US national Veterans Health Administration (VA) inpatients and outpatients (n=13 323), we evaluated the accuracy of the VACO Index for estimating 30-day all-cause mortality using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plots of predicted versus observed mortality in inpatients at a single US academic medical centre (n=1307) and in Medicare inpatients and outpatients aged 65+ (n=427 224). RESULTS: 30-day mortality varied by data source: VA 8.5%, academic medical centre 17.5%, Medicare 16.0%. The VACO Index demonstrated similar discrimination in VA (AUC=0.82) and academic medical centre inpatient population (AUC=0.80), and when restricted to patients aged 65+ in VA (AUC=0.69) and Medicare inpatient and outpatient data (AUC=0.67). The Index modestly overestimated risk in VA and Medicare data and underestimated risk in Yale New Haven Hospital data. CONCLUSIONS: The VACO Index estimates risk of short-term mortality across a wide variety of patients with COVID-19 using data available prior to or at the time of diagnosis. The VACO Index could help inform primary and booster vaccination prioritisation, and indicate who among outpatients testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 should receive greater clinical attention or scarce treatments.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Veterans , Academic Medical Centers , Aged , Humans , Inpatients , Medicare , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , United States/epidemiology , Veterans Health
2.
PLoS One ; 16(9): e0257608, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1416907

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score predicts probability of in-hospital mortality. Many crisis standards of care suggest the use of SOFA scores to allocate medical resources during the COVID-19 pandemic. RESEARCH QUESTION: Are SOFA scores elevated among Non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic patients hospitalized with COVID-19, compared to Non-Hispanic White patients? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Retrospective cohort study conducted in Yale New Haven Health System, including 5 hospitals with total of 2681 beds. Study population drawn from consecutive patients aged ≥18 admitted with COVID-19 from March 29th to August 1st, 2020. Patients excluded from the analysis if not their first admission with COVID-19, if they did not have SOFA score recorded within 24 hours of admission, if race and ethnicity data were not Non-Hispanic Black, Non-Hispanic White, or Hispanic, or if they had other missing data. The primary outcome was SOFA score, with peak score within 24 hours of admission dichotomized as <6 or ≥6. RESULTS: Of 2982 patients admitted with COVID-19, 2320 met inclusion criteria and were analyzed, of whom 1058 (45.6%) were Non-Hispanic White, 645 (27.8%) were Hispanic, and 617 (26.6%) were Non-Hispanic Black. Median age was 65.0 and 1226 (52.8%) were female. In univariate logistic screen and in full multivariate model, Non-Hispanic Black patients but not Hispanic patients had greater odds of an elevated SOFA score ≥6 when compared to Non-Hispanic White patients (OR 1.49, 95%CI 1.11-1.99). INTERPRETATION: Given current unequal patterns in social determinants of health, US crisis standards of care utilizing the SOFA score to allocate medical resources would be more likely to deny these resources to Non-Hispanic Black patients.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Organ Dysfunction Scores , Pandemics , Adolescent , Adult , COVID-19/ethnology , COVID-19/mortality , Connecticut/epidemiology , Female , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies , Young Adult
3.
PLoS One ; 16(9): e0256763, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1416875

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a devastating impact in the United States, particularly for Black populations, and has heavily burdened the healthcare system. Hospitals have created protocols to allocate limited resources, but there is concern that these protocols will exacerbate disparities. The sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score is a tool often used in triage protocols. In these protocols, patients with higher SOFA scores are denied resources based on the assumption that they have worse clinical outcomes. The purpose of this study was to assess whether using SOFA score as a triage tool among COVID-positive patients would exacerbate racial disparities in clinical outcomes. METHODS: We analyzed data from a retrospective cohort of hospitalized COVID-positive patients in the Yale-New Haven Health System. We examined associations between race/ethnicity and peak overall/24-hour SOFA score, in-hospital mortality, and ICU admission. Other predictors of interest were age, sex, primary language, and insurance status. We used one-way ANOVA and chi-square tests to assess differences in SOFA score across racial/ethnic groups and linear and logistic regression to assess differences in clinical outcomes by sociodemographic characteristics. RESULTS: Our final sample included 2,554 patients. Black patients had higher SOFA scores compared to patients of other races. However, Black patients did not have significantly greater in-hospital mortality or ICU admission compared to patients of other races. CONCLUSION: While Black patients in this sample of hospitalized COVID-positive patients had higher SOFA scores compared to patients of other races, this did not translate to higher in-hospital mortality or ICU admission. Results demonstrate that if SOFA score had been used to allocate care, Black COVID patients would have been denied care despite having similar clinical outcomes to white patients. Therefore, using SOFA score to allocate resources has the potential to exacerbate racial inequities by disproportionately denying care to Black patients and should not be used to determine access to care. Healthcare systems must develop and use COVID-19 triage protocols that prioritize equity.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/prevention & control , Delivery of Health Care/statistics & numerical data , Healthcare Disparities/statistics & numerical data , Hospitals, University , Organ Dysfunction Scores , Triage/statistics & numerical data , Adolescent , Adult , African Americans/statistics & numerical data , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/virology , Connecticut , Female , Healthcare Disparities/ethnology , Hospital Mortality/ethnology , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2/physiology , Triage/methods , Young Adult
4.
Contemp Clin Trials ; 110: 106547, 2021 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1372905

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Despite improvement in the standard of care (SOC) for hospitalized COVID-19 patients, rates of morbidity and mortality remain high. There continues to be a need for easily available and cost-effective treatments. Colchicine and rosuvastatin are both safe and well-studied medications with anti-inflammatory and other pleiotropic effects that may provide additional benefits to hospitalized COVID-19 patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Colchicine/Statin for the Prevention of COVID-19 Complications (COLSTAT) trial is a pragmatic, open-label, multicenter, randomized trial comparing the combination of colchicine and rosuvastatin in addition to SOC to SOC alone in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Four centers in the Yale New Haven Health network will enroll a total of 466 patients with 1:1 randomization. The trial will utilize the electronic health record (Epic® Systems, Verona, Wisconsin, USA) at all stages including screening, randomization, intervention, event ascertainment, and follow-up. The primary endpoint is the 30-day composite of progression to severe COVID-19 disease as defined by the World Health Organization ordinal scale of clinical improvement and arterial/venous thromboembolic events. The secondary powered endpoint is the 30-day composite of death, respiratory failure requiring intubation, and myocardial injury. CONCLUSIONS: The COLSTAT trial will provide evidence on the efficacy of repurposing colchicine and rosuvastatin for the treatment of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Moreover, it is designed to be a pragmatic trial that will demonstrate the power of using electronic health records to improve efficiency and enrollment in clinical trials in an adapting landscape. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04472611 (https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04472611).


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors , Colchicine/therapeutic use , Humans , Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors/therapeutic use , SARS-CoV-2 , Treatment Outcome
5.
PLoS One ; 15(9): e0238829, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-807468

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Patients with comorbid conditions have a higher risk of mortality with SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) infection, but the impact on heart failure patients living near a disease hotspot is unknown. Therefore, we sought to characterize the prevalence and outcomes of COVID-19 in a live registry of heart failure patients across an integrated health care system in Connecticut. METHODS: In this retrospective analysis, the Yale Heart Failure Registry (NCT04237701) that includes 26,703 patients with heart failure across a 6-hospital integrated health care system in Connecticut was queried on April 16th, 2020 for all patients tested for COVID-19. Sociodemographic and geospatial data as well as, clinical management, respiratory failure, and patient mortality were obtained via the real-time registry. Data on COVID-19 specific care was extracted by retrospective chart review. RESULTS: COVID-19 testing was performed on 900 symptomatic patients, comprising 3.4% of the Yale Heart Failure Registry (N = 26,703). Overall, 206 (23%) were COVID- 19+. As compared to COVID-19-, these patients were more likely to be older, black, have hypertension, coronary artery disease, and were less likely to be on renin angiotensin blockers (P<0.05, all). COVID-19- patients tended to be more diffusely spread across the state whereas COVID-19+ were largely clustered around urban centers. 20% of COVID-19+ patients died, and age was associated with increased risk of death [OR 1.92 95% CI (1.33-2.78); P<0.001]. Among COVID-19+ patients who were ≥85 years of age rates of hospitalization were 87%, rates of death 36%, and continuing hospitalization 62% at time of manuscript preparation. CONCLUSIONS: In this real-world snapshot of COVID-19 infection among a large cohort of heart failure patients, we found that a small proportion had undergone testing. Patients found to be COVID-19+ tended to be black with multiple comorbidities and clustered around lower socioeconomic status communities. Elderly COVID-19+ patients were very likely to be admitted to the hospital and experience high rates of mortality.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Heart Failure/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Registries , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Cohort Studies , Comorbidity , Connecticut , Delivery of Health Care, Integrated , Female , Heart Failure/mortality , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2
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