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1.
Intern Med ; 60(18): 2911-2917, 2021 Sep 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1413645

ABSTRACT

Objective Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 has spread globally, and it is important to utilize medical resources properly, especially in critically ill patients. We investigated the validity of chest radiography as a tool for predicting aggravation in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases. Methods A total of 104 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases were referred from the cruise ship "Diamond Princess" to the Self-Defense Forces Central Hospital in Japan from February 11 to 25, 2020. Fifty-nine symptomatic patients were selected. Chest radiography was performed upon hospitalization; subsequently, patients were categorized into the positive radiograph (Group A) and negative radiograph (Group B) groups. Radiographic findings were analyzed with a six-point semiquantitative score. Group A was further classified into two additional subgroups: patients who required oxygen therapy during their clinical courses (Group C) and patients who did not (Group D). Clinical records, laboratory data, and radiological findings were collected for an analysis. Results Among 59 patients, 34 were men with a median age of 60 years old. Groups A, B, C, and D consisted of 33, 26, 12, and 21 patients, respectively. The number of patients requiring oxygen administration was significantly larger in Group A than in Group B. The consolidation score on chest radiographs was significantly higher in Group C than in Group D. When chest radiographs showed consolidation in more than two lung fields, the positive likelihood ratio of deterioration was 10.6. Conclusions Chest radiography is a simple and easy-to-use clinic-level triage tool for predicting the severity of COVID-19 and may contribute to the allocation of medical resources.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Triage , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Primary Health Care , Radiography , Radiography, Thoracic , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2
2.
Nat Med ; 27(10): 1735-1743, 2021 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1412139

ABSTRACT

Federated learning (FL) is a method used for training artificial intelligence models with data from multiple sources while maintaining data anonymity, thus removing many barriers to data sharing. Here we used data from 20 institutes across the globe to train a FL model, called EXAM (electronic medical record (EMR) chest X-ray AI model), that predicts the future oxygen requirements of symptomatic patients with COVID-19 using inputs of vital signs, laboratory data and chest X-rays. EXAM achieved an average area under the curve (AUC) >0.92 for predicting outcomes at 24 and 72 h from the time of initial presentation to the emergency room, and it provided 16% improvement in average AUC measured across all participating sites and an average increase in generalizability of 38% when compared with models trained at a single site using that site's data. For prediction of mechanical ventilation treatment or death at 24 h at the largest independent test site, EXAM achieved a sensitivity of 0.950 and specificity of 0.882. In this study, FL facilitated rapid data science collaboration without data exchange and generated a model that generalized across heterogeneous, unharmonized datasets for prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19, setting the stage for the broader use of FL in healthcare.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/physiopathology , Machine Learning , Outcome Assessment, Health Care , COVID-19/therapy , COVID-19/virology , Electronic Health Records , Humans , Prognosis , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification
3.
Infect Dis Ther ; 10(4): 2489-2509, 2021 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1375855

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the cause of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is an enveloped, single-stranded RNA virus. Favipiravir is an orally administrable antiviral drug whose mechanism of action is to selectively inhibit RNA-dependent RNA polymerase. A preliminary trial in COVID-19 patients reported significant improvements across a multitude of clinical parameters, but these findings have not been confirmed in an adequate well-controlled trial. We conducted a randomized, single-blind, placebo-controlled Phase III trial assessing the efficacy and safety of favipiravir in patients with moderate pneumonia not requiring oxygen therapy. METHODS: COVID-19 patients with moderate pneumonia (SpO2 ≥ 94%) within 10 days of onset of fever (temperature ≥ 37.5 °C) were assigned to receive either placebo or favipiravir (1800 mg twice a day on Day 1, followed by 800 mg twice a day for up to 13 days) in a ratio of 1:2. An adaptive design was used to re-estimate the sample size. The primary endpoint was a composite outcome defined as the time to improvement in temperature, oxygen saturation levels (SpO2), and findings on chest imaging, and recovery to SARS-CoV-2-negative. This endpoint was re-examined by the Central Committee under blinded conditions. RESULTS: A total of 156 patients were randomized. The median time of the primary endpoint was 11.9 days in the favipiravir group and 14.7 days in the placebo group, with a significant difference (p = 0.0136). Favipiravir-treated patients with known risk factors such as obesity or coexisting conditions provided better effects. Furthermore, patients with early-onset in the favipiravir group showed higher odds ratio. No deaths were documented. Although adverse events in the favipiravir group were predominantly transient, the incidence was significantly higher. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggested favipiravir may be one of options for moderate COVID-19 pneumonia treatment. However, the risk of adverse events, including hyperuricemia, should be carefully considered. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.jp number: JapicCTI-205238.

5.
J Infect Chemother ; 27(2): 336-341, 2021 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-978337

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: In patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), respiratory failure is a major complication and its symptoms occur around one week after onset. The CURB-65, A-DROP and expanded CURB-65 tools are known to predict the risk of mortality in patients with community-acquired pneumonia. In this retrospective single-center retrospective study, we aimed to assess the correlations of the A-DROP, CURB-65, and expanded CURB-65 scores on admission with an increase in oxygen requirement in patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pneumonia. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 207 patients who were hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia at the Self-Defense Forces Central Hospital in Tokyo, Japan. Performance of A-DROP, CURB-65, and the expanded CURB-65 scores were validated. In addition, we assessed whether there were any associations between an increase in oxygen requirement and known risk factors for critical illness in COVID-19, including elevation of liver enzymes and C-reactive protein (CRP), lymphocytopenia, high D-dimer levels and the chest computed tomography (CT) score. RESULTS: The areas under the curve for the ability of CURB-65, A-DROP, and the expanded CURB-65 scores to predict an increase in oxygen requirement were 0.6961, 0.6980 and 0.8327, respectively, and the differences between the three groups were statistically significant (p < 0.001). Comorbid cardiovascular disease, lymphocytopenia, elevated CRP, liver enzyme and D-dimer levels, and higher chest CT score were significantly associated with an increase in oxygen requirement CONCLUSIONS: The expanded CURB-65 score can be a better predictor of an increase in oxygen requirement in patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/therapy , Oxygen Inhalation Therapy/methods , Severity of Illness Index , Adult , Aged , C-Reactive Protein/analysis , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/mortality , Female , Fibrin Fibrinogen Degradation Products/analysis , Humans , Lymphopenia/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Prognosis , Respiratory Insufficiency/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , Tokyo , Tomography, X-Ray Computed
6.
J Nippon Med Sch ; 88(1): 80-86, 2021 Mar 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-736471

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and heat-related illness are systemic febrile diseases. These illnesses must be differentiated during a COVID-19 pandemic in summer. However, no studies have compared and distinguished heat-related illness and COVID-19. We compared data from patients with early heat-related illness and those with COVID-19. METHODS: This retrospective observational study included 90 patients with early heat-related illness selected from the Heatstroke STUDY 2017-2019 (nationwide registries of heat-related illness in Japan) and 86 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 who had fever or fatigue and were admitted to one of two hospitals in Tokyo, Japan. RESULTS: Among vital signs, systolic blood pressure (119 vs. 125 mm Hg, p = 0.02), oxygen saturation (98% vs. 97%, p < 0.001), and body temperature (36.6°C vs. 37.6°C, p<0.001) showed significant between-group differences in the heatstroke and COVID-19 groups, respectively. The numerous intergroup differences in laboratory findings included disparities in white blood cell count (10.8 × 103/µL vs. 5.2 × 103/µL, p<0.001), creatinine (2.2 vs. 0.85 mg/dL, p<0.001), and C-reactive protein (0.2 vs. 2.8 mg/dL, p<0.001), although a logistic regression model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.966 using these three factors. A Random Forest machine learning model achieved an accuracy, precision, recall, and AUC of 0.908, 0.976, 0.842, and 0.978, respectively. Creatinine was the most important feature of this model. CONCLUSIONS: Acute kidney injury was associated with heat-related illness, which could be essential in distinguishing or evaluating patients with fever in the summer during a COVID-19 pandemic.


Subject(s)
Acute Kidney Injury/diagnosis , COVID-19 Testing , COVID-19/diagnosis , Creatinine/blood , Heat Stroke/diagnosis , Seasons , Acute Kidney Injury/blood , Acute Kidney Injury/etiology , Adult , Aged , Biomarkers/blood , C-Reactive Protein/analysis , Climate , Diagnosis, Differential , Female , Heat Stroke/blood , Heat Stroke/complications , Hot Temperature , Humans , Leukocyte Count , Male , Middle Aged , Predictive Value of Tests , Retrospective Studies , Tokyo
7.
J Infect Chemother ; 26(11): 1220-1223, 2020 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-654302

ABSTRACT

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is spreading worldwide and poses an imminent threat to public health. We encountered 2 cases of COVID-19 with progression resulting in severe respiratory failure and improvement without any specific treatment. To examine the course of infection, we performed reverse-transcription (RT) polymerase chain reaction assay with serum specimens, and serum SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in both cases when body temperature increased and respiratory status deteriorated. We, then examined, retrospectively and prospectively, the clinical course during hospitalization by performing serial examinations of serum SARS-CoV-2 RNA status. The findings from our cases suggest that not only is detection of viremia useful as a predictive marker of severity, but also serial serum SARS-CoV-2 RNA results can be helpful for predicting the clinical course.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification , Coronavirus Infections/complications , Pneumonia, Viral/complications , RNA, Viral/blood , Respiratory Insufficiency/diagnosis , Viremia/diagnosis , Adult , Aged , Betacoronavirus/genetics , COVID-19 , COVID-19 Testing , Clinical Laboratory Techniques , Coronavirus Infections/blood , Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Humans , Male , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/blood , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis , Pneumonia, Viral/virology , RNA, Viral/isolation & purification , Respiratory Insufficiency/blood , Respiratory Insufficiency/virology , Retrospective Studies , Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction , SARS-CoV-2 , Severity of Illness Index , Time Factors , Viremia/complications , Viremia/virology
8.
Lancet Infect Dis ; 20(9): 1043-1050, 2020 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-597848

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is a global threat. Identification of markers for symptom onset and disease progression is a pressing issue. We described the clinical features of people infected on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship who were diagnosed with asymptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection or mild or severe COVID-19, on admission to the Self-Defense Forces Central Hospital (Tokyo, Japan) and at the end of observation. METHODS: This retrospective, single-centre study included participants with laboratory-detected SARS-CoV-2 infection who were admitted to the Self-Defense Forces Central Hospital from Feb 11 to Feb 25, 2020. Clinical records, laboratory data, and radiological findings were analysed. Clinical outcomes were followed up until discharge or Feb 26, 2020, whichever came first. We defined asymptomatic infection as SARS-CoV-2 infection with no history of clinical signs and symptoms, severe COVID-19 as clinical symptoms of pneumonia (dyspnoea, tachypnoea, peripheral capillary oxygen saturation <93%, and need for oxygen therapy), and mild COVID-19 as all other symptoms. Clinical features on admission were compared among patients with different disease severity, including asymptomatic infection, at the end of observation. We used univariable analysis to identify factors associated with symptomatic illness among asymptomatic people infected with SARS-CoV-2 and disease progression in patients with COVID-19. FINDINGS: Among the 104 participants included in the final analysis, the median age was 68 years (IQR 47-75) and 54 (52%) were male. On admission, 43 (41%) participants were classified as asymptomatic, 41 (39%) as having mild COVID-10, and 20 (19%) as having severe COVID-19. At the end of observation, 33 (32%) participants were confirmed as being asymptomatic, 43 (41%) as having mild COVID-19, and 28 (27%) as having severe COVID-19. Serum lactate hydrogenase concentrations were significantly higher in the ten participants who were asymptomatic on admission but developed symptomatic COVID-19 compared with the 33 participants who remained asymptomatic throughout the observation period (five [50%] vs four [12%] participants; odds ratio 7·25, 95% CI 1·43-36·70; p=0·020). Compared with patients with mild disease at the end of observation, patients with severe COVID-19 were older (median age 73 years [IQR 55-77] vs 60 years [40-71]; p=0·028) and had more frequent consolidation on chest CT (13 [46%] of 28 vs nine [21%] of 43; p=0·035) and lymphopenia (16 [57%] vs ten [23%]; p=0·0055) on admission. INTERPRETATION: Older age, consolidation on chest CT images, and lymphopenia might be risk factors for disease progression of COVID-19 and contribute to improved clinical management. FUNDING: None.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus/physiology , Coronavirus Infections/diagnostic imaging , Lymphopenia/complications , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnostic imaging , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome/diagnostic imaging , Adult , Aged , COVID-19 , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Disease Progression , Female , Hospitals , Humans , Japan , Lung/diagnostic imaging , Male , Middle Aged , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/virology , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome/epidemiology , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome/virology , Ships , Tomography, X-Ray Computed
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