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1.
Influenza Other Respir Viruses ; 2022 Jul 27.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1961609

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Quantifying the impact on COVID-19 transmission from a single event has been difficult due to the virus transmission dynamics, such as lag from exposure to reported infection, non-linearity arising from the person-to-person transmission, and the modifying effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions over time. To address these issues, we aimed to estimate the COVID-19 transmission risk of social events focusing on the Japanese Coming-of-Age Day and Coming-of-Age ceremony in which "new adults" practice risky behavior on that particular day. METHODS: Using national surveillance data in Japan in 2021 and 2022, we conducted difference-in-differences regression against COVID-19 incidences by setting "new adults" cases as the treatment group and the cases 1 year younger or older than these "new adults" as the control group. In addition, we employed a triple differences approach to estimate the risk of holding the Coming-Age ceremony by using a binary variable regarding the presence or absence of the ceremony in each municipality. RESULTS: We estimated the relative risks (RRs) of the Coming-of-Age Day as 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.57) in 2021 and 3.22 (95% CI 2.68-3.86) in 2022. The RR of the Coming-of-Age ceremony was also large, estimated as 2.83 (1.81-4.43) in 2022. CONCLUSIONS: When planning large social events, it is important to be aware of the unique risks associated with these gatherings, along with effective public health messages to best communicate these risks.

3.
Jpn J Radiol ; 2022 Jul 26.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1959094

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: We aimed to characterize novel coronavirus infections based on imaging [chest X-ray and chest computed tomography (CT)] at the time of admission. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We extracted data from 396 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 who were managed at 68 hospitals in Japan from January 25 to September 2, 2020. Case patients were categorized as severe (death or treatment with invasive ventilation during hospitalization) and non-severe groups. The imaging findings of the groups were compared by calculating odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), adjusted for sex, age, and hospital size (and radiographic patient positioning for cardiomegaly). Chest X-ray and CT scores ranged from 0 to 72 and 0 to 20, respectively. Optimal cut-off values for these scores were determined by a receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. RESULTS: The median age of the 396 patients was 48 years (interquartile range 28-65) and 211 (53.3%) patients were male. Thirty-two severe cases were compared to 364 non-severe cases. At the time of admission, abnormal lesions on chest X-ray and CT were mainly observed in the lower zone/lobe. Among severe cases, abnormal lesions were also seen in the upper zone/lobe. After adjustment, the total chest X-ray and CT score values showed a dose-dependent association with severe disease. For chest X-ray scores, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.91 (95% CI = 0.86-0.97) and an optimal cut-off value of 9 points predicted severe disease with 83.3% sensitivity and 84.7% specificity. For chest CT scores, the AUC was 0.94 (95% CI = 0.89-0.98) and an optimal cut-off value of 11 points predicted severe disease with 90.9% sensitivity and 82.2% specificity. Cardiomegaly was strongly associated with severe disease [adjusted OR = 24.6 (95% CI = 3.7-166.0)]. CONCLUSION: Chest CT and X-ray scores and the identification of cardiomegaly could be useful for classifying severe COVID-19 on admission.

5.
EuropePMC; 2021.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-305709

ABSTRACT

Since little is known about viral and host characteristics of breakthrough infections after COVID-19 vaccination, a nationwide investigation of breakthrough cases was initiated in Japan. 130 cases (90%+ received mRNA vaccines) were reported with respiratory specimens in 117 cases and sera in 68 cases. A subset of cases shed infectious virus regardless of symptom presence or viral lineages. Viral lineages for breakthrough infections matched both temporally and spatially with the circulating lineages in Japan with no novel mutations in spike receptor binding domain that may have escaped from vaccine-induced immunity were found. Anti-spike/neutralizing antibodies of breakthrough infections in the acute phase owing to vaccine-induced immunity were significantly higher than those from unvaccinated convalescent individuals but were comparable to vaccinated uninfected individuals, and followed by boosting in the convalescent phase. Symptomatic cases had low anti-spike/neutralizing antibodies in the acute phase with robust boosting in the convalescent phase, suggesting the presence of serological correlate for symptom development in COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections.

6.
Int J Epidemiol ; 51(1): 75-84, 2022 02 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1493814

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a major global health burden. This study aims to estimate the all-cause excess mortality occurring in the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020, by sex and age group. METHODS: Daily time series of mortality for the period January 2015-December 2020 in all 47 prefectures of Japan were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan. A two-stage interrupted time-series design was used to calculate excess mortality. In the first stage, we estimated excess mortality by prefecture using quasi-Poisson regression models in combination with distributed lag non-linear models, adjusting for seasonal and long-term variations, weather conditions and influenza activity. In the second stage, we used a random-effects multivariate meta-analysis to synthesize prefecture-specific estimates at the nationwide level. RESULTS: In 2020, we estimated an all-cause excess mortality of -20 982 deaths [95% empirical confidence intervals (eCI): -38 367 to -5472] in Japan, which corresponded to a percentage excess of -1.7% (95% eCI: -3.1 to -0.5) relative to the expected value. Reduced deaths were observed for both sexes and in all age groups except those aged <60 and 70-79 years. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan in 2020 was decreased compared with a historical baseline. Further evaluation of cause-specific excess mortality is warranted.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Disease Outbreaks , Female , Humans , Interrupted Time Series Analysis , Japan/epidemiology , Male , Mortality , SARS-CoV-2
7.
J Epidemiol ; 31(8): 487-494, 2021 08 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1247748

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Notifications of novel coronavirus infections increased in early 2020 in Japan. We described characteristics of novel coronavirus infection cases and analyzed risk factors for severe outcomes. METHODS: Cases were persons with laboratory-confirmed novel coronavirus infection reported under national surveillance between January and March 2020. Clinical characteristics were described, and risk factors of (1) intensive care unit [ICU] admission and (2) invasive ventilation/death were analyzed using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Among the 516 cases analyzed, median age was 60 years (range: 1-97 years) and 285 (55%) were male. Common symptoms/signs were fever (375/475, 79%), cough (353/465, 76%), and pneumonia (245/387, 63%). Ten (2%) cases died. Of the 348 cases with data, 50 (14%) required invasive ventilation. Adjusted for each other, male gender and 1-year increase in age were associated with ICU admission (risk ratio [RR] 4.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.69-10.32 and RR 1.05; 95% CI, 1.03-1.08, respectively) and invasive ventilation/death (RR 2.79; 95% CI, 1.49-5.21 and RR 1.06; 95% CI, 1.04-1.08, respectively). Diabetes, dyslipidemia, hyperuricemia, and lung diseases were also associated with severe outcomes. Of the 80 cases asymptomatic at hospitalization, 40 developed symptoms and five of them >70 years of age required invasive ventilation. CONCLUSIONS: The early stage of the novel coronavirus epidemic in Japan disproportionately affected the elderly. Older age, male gender, and underlying conditions were associated with severe outcomes. Notably, some elderly case-patients who were asymptomatic at diagnosis and promptly hospitalized still went on to develop severe disease, indicating the importance of careful monitoring of certain populations.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/mortality , COVID-19/therapy , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Intensive Care Units , Respiration, Artificial/statistics & numerical data , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/epidemiology , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , Humans , Infant , Japan/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Severity of Illness Index , Treatment Outcome , Young Adult
9.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 27(3): 789-795, 2021 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1100024

ABSTRACT

To provide insight into the mortality burden of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Japan, we estimated the excess all-cause deaths for each week during the pandemic, January-May 2020, by prefecture and age group. We applied quasi-Poisson regression models to vital statistics data. Excess deaths were expressed as the range of differences between the observed and expected number of all-cause deaths and the 95% upper bound of the 1-sided prediction interval. A total of 208-4,322 all-cause excess deaths at the national level indicated a 0.03%-0.72% excess in the observed number of deaths. Prefecture and age structure consistency between the reported COVID-19 deaths and our estimates was weak, suggesting the need to use cause-specific analyses to distinguish between direct and indirect consequences of COVID-19.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/mortality , COVID-19/diagnosis , Cause of Death , Humans , Japan/epidemiology , Mortality , SARS-CoV-2
10.
J Ovarian Res ; 13(1): 105, 2020 Sep 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-751179

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The number of cases of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan have risen since the first case was reported on January 24, 2020, and 6225 infections have been reported as of June 30, 2020. On April 8, 2020, our hospital began screening patients via pre-admission reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and chest computed tomography (CT). Although no patients exhibited apparent pneumonia, treatment delay or changes in treatment plans were required for a few patients based on the results of screening tests. During an emerging infectious disease pandemic, the likelihood of being infected, as well as the disease itself, affects clinical decision making in several ways. We summarized and presented our experience. CASE PRESENTATION: After the introduction of pre-admission screening, RT-PCR and CT were performed in 200 and 76 patients, respectively, as of June 30, 2020. The treatment of five patients, including two patients with cervical cancer, two patients with ovarian tumors, and one patient with ovarian cancer, was affected by the results. Two asymptomatic RT-PCR-positive patients did not develop COVID-19, but their treatment was delayed until the confirmation of negative results. The other three patients were RT-PCR-negative, but abnormal CT findings suggested the possibility of COVID-19, which delayed treatment. The patients receiving first-line preoperative chemotherapy for ovarian cancer had clinically evident exacerbations because of the treatment delay. CONCLUSION: During the epidemic phase of an emerging infectious disease, we found that COVID-19 has several other effects besides its incidence. The postponing treatment was the most common, therefore, treatment of ovarian tumors and ovarian cancer was considered to be the most likely to be affected among gynecological diseases. Protocols that allow for easy over-diagnosis can be disadvantageous, mainly because of treatment delays, and therefore, the protocols must be developed in light of the local infection situation.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Genital Neoplasms, Female/therapy , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification , COVID-19 , COVID-19 Testing , Cancer Care Facilities , Clinical Decision-Making , Clinical Laboratory Techniques , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Female , Humans , Middle Aged , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Time-to-Treatment , Tokyo/epidemiology , Treatment Outcome
11.
J Gynecol Oncol ; 31(5): e87, 2020 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-736759

ABSTRACT

This corrects the article on p. e65 in vol. 31, PMID: 32342678.

12.
Front Microbiol ; 11: 1316, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-615535

ABSTRACT

Japan has reported 26 cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) linked to cruise tours on the River Nile in Egypt between March 5 and 15, 2020. Here, we characterized the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genome of isolates from 10 travelers who returned from Egypt and from patients possibly associated with these travelers. We performed haplotype network analysis of SARS-CoV-2 isolates using genome-wide single-nucleotide variations. Our analysis identified two potential Egypt-related clusters from these imported cases, and these clusters were related to globally detected viruses in different countries.

14.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 26(7)2020 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-47921

ABSTRACT

In early 2020, Japan repatriated 566 nationals from China. Universal laboratory testing and 14-day monitoring of returnees detected 12 cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection; initial screening results were negative for 5. Common outcomes were remaining asymptomatic (n = 4) and pneumonia (n = 6). Overall, screening performed poorly.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Adult , Aged , COVID-19 , China , Female , Humans , Japan/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Polymerase Chain Reaction , SARS-CoV-2 , Travel
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