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1.
Int Health ; 2021 Nov 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1545985

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Knowing the spatiotemporal pattern of the early geographic spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) would inform the preparedness for a possible recurrence of COVID-19. METHODS: We ascertained the number of confirmed cases during the early spread of COVID-19 during the Wuhan outbreak in 2020 and the Nanjing outbreak in 2021. RESULTS: We observed a speeding-up pattern of geographic spread, in particular to cities of no particular orientation then outflowing to commercial cities during the first month of both the Wuhan and Nanjing outbreaks. CONCLUSION: Re-emergence of COVID-19 indicates it is becoming endemic, with new outbreaks and a risk of increased transmission remaining a challenge to local public health institutions. Social distancing and lockdowns should continue in response to any potential widespread and focal outbreaks.

2.
BMJ Open ; 11(5): e046157, 2021 05 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1242205

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: We aim to explore and compare the effect of global travel restrictions and public health countermeasures in response to COVID-19 outbreak. DESIGN: A data-driven spatio-temporal modelling to simulate the spread of COVID-19 worldwide for 150 days since 1 January 2020 under different scenarios. SETTING: Worldwide. INTERVENTIONS: Travel restrictions and public health countermeasures. MAIN OUTCOME: The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases. RESULTS: The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases could reach more than 420 million around the world without any countermeasures taken. Under timely and intensive global interventions, 99.97% of infections could be avoided comparing with non-interventions. The scenario of carrying out domestic travel restriction and public health countermeasures in China only could contribute to a significant decrease of the cumulative number of infected cases worldwide. Without global travel restriction in the study setting, 98.62% of COVID-19 cases could be avoided by public health countermeasures in China only compared with non-interventions at all. CONCLUSIONS: Public health countermeasures were generally more effective than travel restrictions in many countries, suggesting multinational collaborations in the public health communities in response to this novel global health challenge.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , China/epidemiology , Humans , Public Health , SARS-CoV-2 , Travel
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