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Int Health ; 2021 Nov 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1545985


BACKGROUND: Knowing the spatiotemporal pattern of the early geographic spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) would inform the preparedness for a possible recurrence of COVID-19. METHODS: We ascertained the number of confirmed cases during the early spread of COVID-19 during the Wuhan outbreak in 2020 and the Nanjing outbreak in 2021. RESULTS: We observed a speeding-up pattern of geographic spread, in particular to cities of no particular orientation then outflowing to commercial cities during the first month of both the Wuhan and Nanjing outbreaks. CONCLUSION: Re-emergence of COVID-19 indicates it is becoming endemic, with new outbreaks and a risk of increased transmission remaining a challenge to local public health institutions. Social distancing and lockdowns should continue in response to any potential widespread and focal outbreaks.

BMJ Open ; 11(5): e046157, 2021 05 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1242205


OBJECTIVE: We aim to explore and compare the effect of global travel restrictions and public health countermeasures in response to COVID-19 outbreak. DESIGN: A data-driven spatio-temporal modelling to simulate the spread of COVID-19 worldwide for 150 days since 1 January 2020 under different scenarios. SETTING: Worldwide. INTERVENTIONS: Travel restrictions and public health countermeasures. MAIN OUTCOME: The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases. RESULTS: The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases could reach more than 420 million around the world without any countermeasures taken. Under timely and intensive global interventions, 99.97% of infections could be avoided comparing with non-interventions. The scenario of carrying out domestic travel restriction and public health countermeasures in China only could contribute to a significant decrease of the cumulative number of infected cases worldwide. Without global travel restriction in the study setting, 98.62% of COVID-19 cases could be avoided by public health countermeasures in China only compared with non-interventions at all. CONCLUSIONS: Public health countermeasures were generally more effective than travel restrictions in many countries, suggesting multinational collaborations in the public health communities in response to this novel global health challenge.

COVID-19 , Pandemics , China/epidemiology , Humans , Public Health , SARS-CoV-2 , Travel